Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Global Turmoil On The Rise

Markets are mixed in early trading amid headlines pointing to escalating global turmoil.  The Egypt situation is quickly coming to a head.  Oil prices have topped $100 for the firs time in many months as worries grow that the political unrest in Egypt could affect the Suez Canal which would affect oil shipments from the Mideast.

Europe's markets are also lower across the board after a flare up in Portugal.  4 key govt officials have resigned or are expected to.  The country's benchmark 10-year yield spiked 126 basis points to 7.72%.  And Portugal's stock market is lower by more than 5% today.

We also have the continued concerns in China, where the services PMI data last night showed a further slowdown in economic activity.  India's PMI also fell to a 2-year low of 51.7.

The odd thing is that our stock markets aren't down more.  As of this post, the Dow is solidly in positive territory.  Optimists would probably point out that this is a positive sign that our markets have begun to decouple somewhat from Europe.  Others might say that our markets remain a bit complacent in the face of rising global tensions and slowing economic activity (Asia).

Our services PMI also fell to 52.5 this morning from 53.7 in May.  But the ADP employment report showed the private sector added 188k jobs in June, which was above expectations.  This report doesn't always correlate that well to Friday's govt payrolls report, so we will have to wait to see how that comes in.

The 10-year yield is flat near the 2.47% level.  And the volatility index touched the 16 level but bounced to 17 today before falling back closer to 16.50 currently.

Trading comment: The S&P 500 is right in the middle of an important range.  Yesterday it again failed to get above its 50-day average near 1624.  And recent support has come in around the 1600 level.  Right now the SPX is smack in the middle of those two hovering near 1612.  So it looks like if the SPX can get back above the overhead 50-day that would embolden the bulls to get aggressive again.  But if we can't hold that 1600 support level, then a more defensive posture remains in order.  I don't think its necessary to make big bets in advance until we see how this plays out. 

Gudang grosir baju anak murah - harga pabrik !!
www.gudanggrosiran.com Read More

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Still Testing The Overhead 50-Day

The markets are higher again in early trading.  Yesterday the S&P 500 tested its overhead 50-day average but turned lower from there and closed around its mid-point of the day's trading range.  This morning it is once again testing that overhead 50-day average near SPX 1624.  Ditto the Dow and the Nasdaq 100.

The big news this morning was the EU and IMF telling Greece they have 3 days to prove it can fulfill its bailout conditions or risk not receiving its next tranche of aid.  Something tells me that this is going to be an ongoing issue for years with Greece.

The news has most European markets trading lower.  And Asian markets were mixed overnight.  The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 2.75%, but left the door open to rate cuts.  And Hong Kong retail sales grew less than expected at 12.8%.

The dollar is a little higher today leaving commodities mixed.  Oil prices are higher near $98.85 while metals are lower.  Gold prices are down to $1247 after yesterday's rally.  Silver and copper prices are also lower.

The 10-year yield is easing back below the 2.5% level to 2.48% currently.  And the volatility index has fallen back below the 16 level to 15.98 at present.  The declining VIX is a bullish sign if it can continue.

Trading comment: Three of the major indexes are still testing their overhead 50-day averages.  If they are able to close above them and stay there for a few sessions it would increase the likelihood that the market can make a stab at its yearly highs reached in May.  But that is definitely not a given.  It is also very possible that the market could continue to chop around in the summer months.  Second quarter earnings season starts soon and will surely color the landscape.  Our assessment is that expectations are running fairly low as earnings estimates have been trimmed in recent weeks.

Gudang grosir baju anak murah - harga pabrik !!
www.gudanggrosiran.com Read More

Monday, July 1, 2013

Monday Morning Musings

Markets are nicely higher on the first day of the new quarter, with the Dow up +150 points in early trading.  Of course, its still very early in the day so anything can happen by the close. 

There doesn't seem to be much news moving the market today, as it appears more like new money being put to work as the new quarter begins.  ONXX is up 50% after rejecting a takeover offer from AMGN.  And AAPL is up 2.8% afer reports that it registered the iWatch trademark in Japan.  It also got an upgrade and a $600 price target from Raymond James.

Asian markets were mixed overnight.  Japan was 1.3% higher after the economy minister said that the country's real economy is "clearly recovering".  In China, the HSBC manuf. PMI ticked down to 48.2 from 48.3, a level that points to continued contraction in the manuf. sector.

European markets are higher today.  Eurozone manuf. PMI rose to 48.8.  Most countries PMI indexes rose except for Germany which ticked down to 48.6.

After an 8-day win streak, the dollar index is slightly lower today.  That is helping most commodities.  Oil prices are higher to $98.  Gold prices are up near $1241.  And copper prices are bouncing sharply.

The 10-year yield hovered near the 2.50% level most of the first hour of trading.  It is currently at 2.49%.

The volatility index is 4.2% lower to 16.15.  The VIX has moved sharply lower since last week's spike near the 22 level.

Trading comment: We have been watching the overhead 50-day averages to see if they act as resistance on any bounces.  Right now the S&P 500 is up exactly at its 50-day at the 1624 level.  So this is a key test.  Sometimes it makes sense to look at some of the other indexes to see how they are trading in relation to their respective 50-day averages.  The Nasdaq, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 are all above their 50-days.  So that lends itself to the notion that the S&P 500 will be able to lift itself above its 50-day as well.  Lots of traders are looking for more of a correction in July.  But investor sentiment is already showing some bearish readings, so from a contrarian perspective the market could look to frustrate the bears once again.  We should know fairly soon.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL

Gudang grosir baju anak murah - harga pabrik !!
www.gudanggrosiran.com Read More