Stocks Set To Finish The Year Pretty Flat

The market is roughly flat in early trading. If the SPX were to finish at these levels, it would be up less than 0.40% for the year. I think I heard CNBC say that would be the flattest year since 1970. Nevermind the volatility along the way that saw the SPX get as high as 1370 and as low as 1074. I for one am hoping for a decrease in volatility for 2012.

There is very little newsflow today both on the corporate front as well as any economic data. Yesterday saw broad-based buying but on very thin volume, which of course pushed things higher. Volume will likely be lighter today ahead of the holiday and with the US markets closed on Monday.

Asian markets were barely higher overnight, and Europe is mixed this morning. The dollar index is lower this morning which is helping boost commodities. Oil prices are near $99.35 but gold prices have bounced to $1571. Copper and silver prices are higher also.

The 10-year yield is a bit lower again today near 1.88%; and the VIX is up a little to just below the 23 level (22.89).

Trading comment: The SPX got back above its 200-day average yesterday. That means it was only below that key average for one day, which normally would be a bullish sign. With volume very light yesterday and year-end window dressing in effect, its hard to place a lot of significance on yesterday's action. I don't want to completely discount it, but I think we will get a better sense of the action when traders are back in full force next week. So I would give the nod to the bullish side of the equation here, but wait for confirmation next week before adding to my long positions. We still have seen fewer breakouts in leading growth stocks than we would normally see if a new upleg in the market were at hand. Let's hope 2012 brings more winners.

Happy new year to everyone--

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Euro Lower On Lackluster Italian Auction

The newsflow is relatively light this morning, and surprisingly our markets are higher despite the euro moving lower. The results from an Italian bond auction this morning were okay, but not strong enough to help boost the euro. Yields offered on the bonds were lower than last month's auctions, but still relatively high. 10-year yields in Italy remain above 7.0%.

The weakness in the euro is boosting the dollar and hurting most commodities. Oil prices have fallen back to $98.50, and gold is down again to $1530.

In the U.S., pending home sales for November came in above expectations with an increase of 7.3%. And the Chicago PMI for December was also above expectations at 62.5, in-line with the prior month.

The 10-year yield is fractionally higher to 1.92%; and the VIX is lower by 2% so far near the 23.0 level.

Trading comment: We haven't done a lot on the trading side of things this week. As portfolio managers know well, this is a busy week for us in terms of last minute tax-loss harvesting to offset capital gains, last minute IRA contributions, as well as any year-end rebalancing. So while you hear a lot of stories about trading slowing down, it is anything but slow at our firm. And next week the fireworks will start in earnest again.

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Play to Win: #6 in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Musts for 2012

If you watch a lot of football (like I do), it’s not uncommon to watch your favorite team gain an edge over their opponent and get a small lead. Then, with a few minutes left on the clock, for reasons I will never understand, they abandon the strategy which helped them get the lead (which usually involved assertive play and calculated risk taking on both offense and defense) and start playing “not to lose,” hoping to run out the clock before the other team can gain the lead.

What inevitably happens is that the other team is able to take advantage of this less aggressive style of play.

They stop your offense, because you’re trying to keep the ball on the ground and you fail to make a needed first down. And once they get the ball back, they march right down the field into scoring range because your defense isn’t working as hard to force a turnover and they aren’t taking the calculated risks needed to put extra men where they think the next play is going to be.

So how does this relate to your business?

You worked hard to get your business established; you took calculated risks and tried things you hadn’t tried before in order to gain an edge. Now that you’ve gained some ground, you’re so afraid to lose your position that you start playing “not to lose” instead of playing to win.

• You’ve got a few hundred (or thousand) fans on Facebook or Twitter but you’re so afraid of one or two of them “unliking” your page that you’re afraid to post things that will provoke and connect with people emotionally. You’re afraid to speak passionately on social media. Your posts are about as exciting as a bowl of oatmeal (which, incidentally, is how they're making your brand look, as well).  You’re afraid that if you post more than once a day someone will get annoyed and stop reading your posts.
  
  So you’re not playing to win on social media, you’re playing “not to lose.”

• Instead of adding value and changing your lineup – taking a few calculated risks in order to compete in the new economy, you’re holding on to the way you’ve always done things. You are more focused on not losing one or two customers than you are on gaining new ones by making changes you need to make within your business.

• Instead of making your business – and your customer experience – truly unique, you’re playing it safe by keeping things as generic as possible.  And so once the customer walks out, there's nothing memorable to make them want to come back and nothing that makes them want to tell their friends about you.  

• Instead of engaging with your customers through communications, you’re so worried that someone might unsubscribe from your emailing list if you actually email them that you never do it at all; or at most, you send one or two one-and-done offers and a holiday greeting each year.

Or even worse, maybe you don’t have a playbook at all, and everything that you are doing is being done as a one-and-done, because there is no short or long term strategy in play.

There’s still time on the clock: are you going to play not to lose? Or play to win?


***

Elizabeth Kraus, author of 365 Days of Marketing and the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies.

Dispel all the little white marketing lies that might be holding your business back - check out the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies on amazon.com.  With hundreds of marketing ideas laid out for 2012, you'll get into a marketing groove and build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients!

  

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Euro Breaks Recent Support

In recent months, I have said repeatedly that all you need to do is look at what the euro is doing to know how stocks are faring. This morning the euro is breaking recent support levels and falling to fresh lows.

The drop in sentiment comes on news that the ECB's balance sheet has grown to a record 2.73 trillion euros. And despite positive Italian bond auctions this morning, bank deposits at the ECB are now at a record 452 billion euros. So although the stress in the U.S. stock market has eased in recent months, the stress on the interbank lending markets in Europe remains high.

Asian markets were slightly lower overnight, while Europe is mixed this morning. The drop in the euro and rise in the dollar is also weighing on commodities. Oil prices have eased back to $100.33, but are still high amid tensions with Iran threatening to close the Straight of Hormuz (a key shipping route for crude oil). Gold prices are also lower, down to $1575.

The 10-year yield was able to get above 2.0% for a couple days, but is back below those levels today. It is currently down near 1.94% after running into overhead resistance at its 50-day average.

As for the VIX, it is up another 5.25% right now above the 23 level. A lot of traders were looking for volatility to continue lower as we neared the end of the year and another 3-day weekend, but the last 2 days have seen a fair bounce in the VIX. That said, the VIX is still well off of its highs from recent months and much closer to getting back below the 20 level where it was before the market fell out of bed in August.

Trading comment: We have been pretty quiet here in year-end trading. The SPX is at key technical levels. Yesterday it close above its overhead 200-day average near 1259. A couple of consecutive closes above this level would have put the bulls back in front. But today we are trading back down below those key levels. We will have to see how the market fares into the close, but a quick turnaround back below the 200-day in one day's time isn't what the bulls were hoping for. The SPX has been up for 5 straight days, so I would expect some normal consolidation. But I would like to see a mild price drop.

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Understand the Law of Reflection: #5 in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Musts for 2012

How many times have you wondered what it would take to turn one time customers into repeat customers, to turn repeat customers into exclusively loyal ones -- to attract and develop a group of people willing to refer, recommend and otherwise talk about your brand to others.

How many times have you felt powerless and hopeless when it comes to getting your employees to think more like stakeholders – people who have a vested interest in the health and well-being of the company and so become engaged and loyal to the business (not just the paycheck, and make decisions that are in the best interest of the company, even if it's not always comfortable or most convenient for themselves.

How many times have you wondered why you aren’t converting more search engine results, blog post links and other web site visitors into online sales and in-store visits.

Here’s the secret. 

People don’t buy from companies, they buy from people. 

People don’t develop loyalty to companies, they become loyal – and sometimes addicted – to the things that companies do for them or how they make them feel.

Getting found by search engines, having your blog posts read and getting people to your website is a preliminary step; only what happens after that point – the engagement and emotional connection built into the online experience – produces sales, booked appointments and in-store visits.

Only what occurs after someone walks into your store in terms of engagement and emotional connection produces desired results at the cash register, repeat visits and referrals.

Employees don’t think like stakeholders when they’re treated like tools. (Take that any way you like.) And all if it can be attributed to what I call the ‘Law of Reflection.’

And here is its shortest, sweetest version:
no one is going to put more into a relationship than you. 

Employees won’t invest themselves personally in the well-being of your company until they feel that you are invested in them. Clocking in does not produce engagement. If you want them to act like a stakeholder, you’ve got to give them reasons to feel like one, first.

Customers don’t become loyal to you until you become loyal to them, making them #1 in your focus and thinking, and making it your goal to benefit them and improve their lives. (Notice how “sell stuff to them” is nowhere to be found in that statement.)

The relationship and loyalties that customers develop toward you and your business is a direct reflection of your commitment to and interest in them. Likewise, the loyalty and engagement that employees demonstrate toward your business is a direct reflection of not only your policies and employee culture but also of how much (or little) you take the time to educate and train them and of how important you make them feel that they are to you, and to your business.

Understanding the Law of Reflection is the first step on the road to loyalty and engagement, changing the way that you think about your business and set goals and priorities must follow.

Remember, just like with a pool of water or even a mirror, the reflection (the way customers or employees feel about you and your business) is never going to be clearer or stronger than the original, and you are responsible for creating the original side of those relationships.

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Monday Morning Musings

The market has opened fairly sluggish, possibly nursing a small hangover from the holiday festivities. I took Friday off for a little golf as the weather in LA has been sunny and nice. Now its back to the grind and seeing if the markets can add to their nice finish to last week.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, with Hong Kong still closed. And Europe's markets were mostly higher today despite the yield on Italian bonds hovering back near 7.0% again.

Volume levels will likely remain light for this shortened week. Corporate news is relatively light this morning, but SHLD is getting whacked on poor retail sales and the announcement that it will close more stores and draw funds from its credit facility.

In economic news, the Case-Shiller home price index showed another decline in home prices for October, as prices fell 3.4%. But the Consumer Confidence index for December rose much more than expected to 64.5 from 56.0 last month. We have seen some strong consumer confidence numbers this month and it will be interesting to see if that sort of sentiment continues in early 2012.

The dollar is a bit lower but so are most commodities. Gold prices have slipped below $1600 and copper and silver prices are lower as well. Oil prices are above $100, but this has more to do with comments out of Iran about possible supply disruptions.

The 10-year yield is roughly flat near 2.01%. And the VIX, which had gotten down near the 20 level last week, is spiking +6% to 22.15 currently despite the flat market. It could be that traders are anticipating a pickup in volatility in January and are buying ahead of the turn of the calendar. This is actually a trade that I am considering.

Trading comment: The market finished last week on a strong note after 4 straight up days. I had said I was looking for an early Santa Claus rally, and it will be interesting to see how things shape up this week. I have a sense that trading could simply be quiet as traders look to just hang on into year-end. But we could also see another push higher as last minute window dressing plays out. I would start looking for things that could reverse in January. Some stocks are very extended in here, and looked primed for a pullback. Other stocks are likely being sold just to take the losses and could rebound in January. But for now I am focusing on the former.

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Slight Downward Revisions to Q3 GDP

I'm getting a bit of a late start today, which is often the case when my parents are in town visiting. My kids are so excited to have them there, its hard to keep them from running in and waking my folks at the crack of dawn.

The markets are higher this morning, which would make for three straight gains in the SPX if it holds. Those waiting for the Santa Claus rally to start next week might be a little late to the party.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, but Europe is higher today after the ECB released results from its latest liquidity program, the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO). There was strong bank participation, which hopefully will prove to be a good think like TARP was in the U.S. (even though it was unpopular).

In economic news, Q3 GDP was revised downward a bit to 1.8% from its last estimate of 2.0%. But early Q4 estimates are for growth above those levels. The December Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment reading came in at 69.9 which is up nicely from last month's reading of 67.7. And this week's jobless claims were lower than expected. So net-net, I view today's economic data as a glass half-full.

The dollar is flattish and commodities are mixed. Gold prices are lower to $1607, while oil prices are higher back to $99.60. Copper prices are higher also.

The 10-year yield is down slightly to 1.95%; and the VIX is falling further down to the 21.0 level. I view this as bullish in the short-term, but would probably look to get long volatility and expect another pickup in Q1.

Trading comment: The SPX continues to act well since bottoming on Monday. It is outperforming the Nazz this week after reversing yesterday's lows and finishing in the green. The chart below shows that today is the third day (so far) above the 50-day average, and now the overhead 200-day is in sight. It currently sits near SPX 1259. I think if this rally continues and people look to put more money to work into year-end we could take out those levels, but I don't expect it to be a straight shot. I also think money will be put to work in the winners, not the laggards, as portfolio managers try to add to their winners and make it look like they had big positions in those stocks.

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Define, or Be Defined: #4 in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Musts for 2012

This week, I included an article in my newsletter titled 12 trends that will change marketing in 2012. The original article (from PR Say) spoke to public relations, but in reading through the trends, you’ll find that it’s much bigger than just that segment.

In the article, the third trend stated it this way: “Organizations will be defined by communication.”

Citing the fact that Time Magazine named “The Protestor” (worldwide) as their person of the year for 2011, Daniel Tisch is quoted as saying, “As we move ever closer to a world in which global publishing power lies in every person’s pocket, the punishment for failing to listen, engage, anticipate and respond effectively will be severe; and the rewards for an organization that defines itself through communication will be rich indeed.”

This is definitely a coin which has two sides, though.

Note the prediction that organizations will be defined by communication; meaning, judgments will be made about whether someone wants to be associated with your business in any way (as a customer, employee, investor, vendor, etc.) based on how they perceive your company by way of your communications.

Stay with me.

In the subsequent quote, however, Tisch makes the point that the businesses which are going to be rewarded in the future will be those who define themselves through communication.

Do you see the difference?


People are going to decide whether to do business or otherwise associate themselves with your business as a direct result of how and to the extent to which you do (or do not) define yourself through communication.

To define yourself through communication, you must first define and develop an authentic brand (that means you really are who you think you are, and who you really are and who you think you really are matches up to what you say you really are).

And then you must develop a strategy for frequent, relentlessly brand-consistent communication that encompasses all of your internal and external communications (marketing, social media, advertising, public relations, employee relations, etc.). You are likely going to need to increase both the frequency of your communications and means, you’re going to have to make it a priority and you’re going to need to stick to it!

***

Elizabeth Kraus - www.12monthsofmarketing.net
365 Days of Marketing and the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies

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Oracle Takes Away The Punch Bowl

Asian markets rallied overnight, following the strong showing on Wall St. yesterday. European markets were also higher this morning on a report from the ECB that bank borrowing needs are being adequately met.

But following ORCL's disappointing quarterly report, tech shares are down heavily this morning and that is weighing on the overall market. ORCL's stock is getting hit and hurting anything that is related to CRM, cloud computing, etc. The Nasdaq 100 is down -2.0% early, while the S&P 500 is off -0.65%.

Among sectors, tech is down the most, while defensive areas like consumer staples and utilities are bucking the weakness so far and trading in positive territory. If will be interesting to see if dip buyers show up today in tech stocks.

On the plus side, Nike (NKE) had a solid quarterly report and its stocks is up nicely today, almost back to 52-week highs.

The dollar is higher vs. the euro today, which is weighing on some commodities. Oil prices are higher near $98.38, but gold is down to $1615 and silver and copper prices are lower as well.

The 10-year yield is adding a bit to get to 1.92%; and although the market is down this morning, the VIX is also nearly 3% lower to 22.55. I still think this continues to bode well for the bulls into year-end.

Trading comment: Tech stocks are getting destroyed this morning if they are related to cloud computing, etc. Stocks like AAPL and GOOG are holding up better. It will be interesting to see which stocks bounce back first. But those that don't bounce and continue to act as laggards should be avoided for now as year-end selling of losers could continue to weigh on them. As for the SPX, it has pulled back exactly to its 50-day average, which is acting as support so far. I think that is important. A 2nd close above the 50-day would be a bullish sign, and supportive of another move higher for the senior index. I would also like to see volume on today's pullback come in lighter than yesterday's rally. So let's watch for that.

long AAPL, GOOG

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#3 in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Ideas for 2012: Stick Around

So far in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Ideas for 2012 are: 

1.  Process - not practice - makes perfect  [ click here ]
and 2. Commit to Continuous Improvement (and no 'sacred cows')  [ click here ]

So what made the 3rd spot in my list? 
Stick Around. 

What I mean is this: Persistence is far more important to small business success in 2012 than is almost any other marketing genius.  

 
But don't just take my word for it:

"Never, never, never give up." 
(Winston Churchill)

"Ambition is the path to success.
Persistence is the vehicle you arrive in."
(Bill Bradley)

"Energy and persistence conquer all things."
(Benjamin Franklin)

"The habit of persistence is the habit of victory."
(Herbert Kaufman)

"Paralyze resistance with persistence."
(Woody Hayes)

"Success is almost totally dependent upon drive and persistence.
The extra energy required to make another effort or try another approach is the secret of winning."
(Dennis Waitley)

"And let us not grow weary of doing good, for in due season we will reap,
if we do not give up."
(Paul the Apostle, Galatians 6:9)

Sometimes the only difference between the successful and those who are not is persistence. Showing up, trying, doing, learning, putting what was learned into practice, and showing up again, the next day.

To be successful in 2012, commit yourself to persistence.  Make it a habit.  Make it one of the defining traits of your character, a word that those closest to you would use to describe you.  Don't give up in pursuit of your dream or in doing what you know is right, because you'll never have or enjoy the first without the second.

Elizabeth Kraus

***

Elizabeth Kraus, author of 365 Days of Marketing and the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies.

Dispel all the little white marketing lies that might be holding your business back - check out the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies on amazon.com.  With hundreds of marketing ideas laid out for 2012, you'll get into a marketing groove and build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients!

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Is Santa In The House?

Yesterday I mentioned that the stock market was getting oversold again and sentiment was getting more bearish, but that for the market to rally we just needed some catalyst.

Well along comes Spain and out of the blue they hold a debt auction that was stronger than expected. That really improved sentiment in Europe, along with some solid sentiment surveys in Germany and the UK, and got the euro rallying. We know that lately if the euro is higher, the stock market is higher.

Asian markets were up slightly overnight, but Europe's markets are up nicely today. The Dow has spiked nearly 300 points so far. In economic news in the US, housing starts and building permits were both better than expected. Homebuilder stocks are rallying on the news.

In corporate news, General Mills (GIS) came up short of consensus estimates and its stocks is lower. CVS issued an in-line outlook and hiked its dividend by 30%. Its stock is nicely higher.

The dollar is lower, which is boosting commodities. Oil prices have spiked up to $97.25, while gold prices are back above $1600 near $1618. Silver and copper prices are higher also.

The 10-year yield is getting a big boost to 1.90%, which is still a pretty low yield overall. And the VIX is down sharply again, falling more than 9% so far. The VIX is currently at 22.60 and if it closed at these levels it would be the lowest reading since late July.

Trading comment: It didn't feel very good to do some buying yesterday, but I feel much better about it today, lol. The SPX had been turned down by its overhead 50-day average the last few times. At the time, I said that I felt that was normal and that after a pullback and some consolidation we could see a successful move above that key moving average. So far today the SPX has broken above its 50-day which was at 1230. A solid close above that level should embolden bulls to do more buying and bears to cover shorts. We are still long are trading positions in SCSS, TSCO, ULTA, and STMP. We also added some IWM yesterday to add overall exposure.

KAM Advisors has long positions in all stocks mentioned

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#2: Top 10 Small Business Marketing Musts for 2012 - Continuous Improvement (and no 'sacred cows')

The second in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Ideas for 2012 is

2. Continuous Improvement (and no “sacred cows”)  

One of the first business books I read after college was Sacred Cows Make the Best Burgers (Kriegel & Brandt).  I still rank this among the best books for business owners and managers.

Why? Because it makes a very important point, over and over and over again.

People (i.e., managers, decision makers, policy setters and bosses) resist change to one extent or another, for one reason or another.


We think that what worked in the last decade will always work. Heck, we think that what worked last year will work again this year. We set up certain of our programs or departments as “untouchable” or we put territorial bulldogs in charge of them. We become emotionally invested in our brain children and in our ‘firstborn’ business ideas.

The term ‘sacred cow’ refers to the status of cattle in India. They’re untouchable and protected for religious reasons, without exception. They are afforded the status almost of gods on earth, you must give way for them, starve rather than consume them, sacrifice to them and even adorn them with flowers for celebrations.

Over time, programs and departments in our businesses can assume this status. Even if the company is ‘starving’ to death, these programs, departments or persons must not be touched, changed or affected.
We’ve all been in organizations like this, where certain programs and certain people seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted, without consequence, without accountability and without question – even when their actions or results were significantly detrimental to the company.


To be successful in 2012, companies must renew their commitment to an old idea: continuous improvement, throughout every area of their organization.

Continuous improvement is a buzz term related to the “Total Quality Management” (or TQM) approach to leadership that gained popularity especially in the late 1980s/early 19902 (although its roots are older than that).

In the early 1990’s, I worked in a company that encouraged continuous improvement formally, through a program which rewarded those who brought good ideas (reviewed by committee) for improving the process or even conditions for their own job or for the company with the grant of the money needed to implement the change. It was rare that at least 2-3 new ideas were not accepted and implemented every month, resulting over the course of just one year in dozens of improvements throughout every area and in every department of the company.

I say, no more sacred cows.  This especially resounds with me because of all the times I've been trained in a new role or otherwise been treated to some variation of the phrase, "this is the way we've always done it."


In one such role, about 10 years ago, I had taken an administrative job at the private school my children attended.  Right after I started, the school had hired a consultant to help implement a capital campaign for improvements and expansion.  With all the school execs (principals, board members, a few key teachers, etc.)  in the room, many of whom had been there for decades, the consultant looked around the room and said, "Who do you think is the most valuable person in this process right now?"


People responded with different ideas but he said they were all wrong.  Pointing at me, the low man on the totem pole (truthfully only in the room because they needed someone to take notes!) he said it  was me.  He said that I was the only one who'd been with the organization for less than 6 months, I was the only one whose brain had not been inducted into the groupthink that occurs after behaviors are learned and become routine.  I was the one most capable of thinking creatively, because I was not yet 'trained' in the 'way they'd always done things.'  Now almost 2 decades later, I've never forgotten that point. 


To loose yourself from the hold of sacred cows in your company will require that you let go of preconceived ideas about what works and about how you view your company. You will need to bring in fresh eyes, survey customers, solicit employee opinions and pay attention to discontent (instead of defending yourself) from all stakeholders. You will need to be open to new ideas and actually trying new things and – gasp – worst of all, you will need to empower people to make changes that will improve their own jobs, working conditions, and processes in your company.

In the new year, commit yourself anew to this ‘old’ idea of continuous improvement in every area of your business, and your own life! 

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Lack of Catalysts To Drive Markets Higher

The markets were higher in early trading, but have since faded as a lack of any significant catalysts exist today to help drive markets higher. There have been very few economic or corporate announcements. News out of Europe was also quiet over the weekend, with some continued chatter about whether the ECB will step up its bond purchases.

The big news even was the death of Kim Jong Il in N. Korea, and what that might mean for the transition of leadership in that country. Asian markets were down across the board overnight amid the uncertainty.

Financials have led the reversal lower this morning after the Basel committee said they would like higher capital requirements for the banks. Financials are down the most so far today, while healthcare stocks are up the most.

The dollar is up a bit today, which is weighing on commodities slightly. Oil prices are flattish near $93.60 and gold prices are also a bit lower near $1595.

The 10-year yield continues to languish down around 1.84%; and the VIX is currently up 3% right to the 25.0 level.

Trading comment: The major indexes were down an average of 3% last week, and the market is now back into oversold territory. I expect choppy trading to continue in this news driven market, but I think this week's trading will have an upward bias as people look for a potential Santa Claus rally to surface. Trading will likely continue to be light as many folks have simply called it a year and closed up their trading books. The rest of us will continue looking for profitable trades in investments on a daily basis.

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Top 10 2012 Marketing Ideas for Small Business Success

No matter what your business specialty, at the end of each year you’ll always find a smattering of articles touting predictions for the coming year. With few exceptions, most of the 2012 marketing predictions and 2012 small business trend related articles I’ve come across this year have been little more than noting that trends already in play will continue.

While still helpful, hardly the secrets to success most small business owners are looking for.  I mean, we all know that social media has earned its place as a legitimate tool in every business’s marketing arsenal. We all know that success is tied to our ability to build and develop online and offline communities, fans, followers and referrals.  And it's not news to anyone that we have to set ourselves apart from the competition (which, by the way, is fiercer than ever!)

We know what the problems and challenges are, and most of us know what the trends are, what we don’t know is how to take advantage, how to solve the problems and how to overcome the challenges.  It’s not knowing what the next big web app or social media platform is going to be, it’s knowing how to use it to build business. It’s knowing which of the hundreds of choices available are right for your business, customers, employees, products and services.

From old-fashioned to new-fangled, visit my blog every day for the next 10 days for my Top 10 Marketing Ideas for Small Business Success for 2012: 

1. Process – not practice – makes perfect. 

It’s not that practice isn’t a good thing, because it is. This is something I understand well; I took piano lessons from the age of 7 through my sophomore year of college. Practicing something the right way helps you improve your ability to perform and leads to stellar, buzz-worthy performances and competitive advantage.

But practicing something the wrong way over and over, with mistakes, poor technique, skipping steps through ignorance or poor memorization – in music, these are the things that make for mediocre musicians and poor showings in recitals and competitions.

The same holds true for small business. 

If your processes or the services you provide to customers are practiced (or performed) over and over the wrong way, you kill your ability to compete, negate any chance of referrals and even run the risk of losing your regular clients. Take time to make sure that you’re practicing things right by thinking through each of the processes that impact the customer experience.

And - maybe even more obviously:  create a 2012 marketing plan, and work your plan.

It's just too easy for things to slip from the get-go if your plan simply consists of "doing better" in 2012.  Without a written plan, you can't expect staff to understand the big picture, your organizational goals and how they contribute to the success of the business.  Without a written plan, you can't develop a playbook for the day to day.  Without a written plan, your social media marketing is going to be all over the place and do little to create engagement, build community or support your sales goals.  Without a plan, all of your marketing is likely to be hit-and-miss, one-and-done and (worst of all) ineffective.

"Write a marketing plan."  Sounds pretty basic, doesn't it. 

But, by and large, business owners don't actually do it.  

Why?  They don't know why they should. They lack the motivation. They lack the know-how.  It sounds like work (and it is; but it's not as much work as you think). You can create a process for your marketing that is simple; it doesn't have to be a doctoral thesis!

At it's most basic level, a marketing plan has these components:

Goals (or Strategies), such as:

• a specific sales goal
• launching a new product or service
• developing new products or services
• getting more customers
• conducting a charity drive
• moving customers to new levels of engagement
• getting social media followers
• building brand awareness
• increasing market share

Tactics, which are the things that you will do (or at least try) in support of your goals.  This is my favorite component, because it's the creative element.  This is where you and staff get to brainstorm new ideas, think out of the box and get excited about the possibilities.  This is where you develop employee buy-in and engagement and help employees to understand their role in the mission and vision of your organization.

Time-line and/or target dates (or incremental dates when you will measure and analyze results).

Results, which is simply whether or not you met a specific goal, and by how much you exceeded or fell short.

And finally, analysis, which is what went right, what went wrong, and how you will do things differently going forward or 'the next time.'  As implied, this is another opportunity to impact employee engagement and buy-in and unleash creativity that can truly help to differentiate your business from competitors.

In fact, the very fact that you are now writing - however simple - a marketing plan is likely to differentiate you from your competitors; using it and executing it is going to take you even further! 

Where to start?  Click here for a free worksheet.

1. Set a goal
2. Set a timeline
3. Think of (at least) 3 things you will do (or do differently) to meet the goal
4. Do those 3 things
5. At the end of the timeline, measure results
6. Analyze and try again or modify marketing accordingly

It's that simple!

Need marketing plan fodder?  The 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar is a great choice, especially if (like many small business owners) you are maxed-out when it comes to time.  It's a great choice if you are just starting (or still need to get started) with social media.  It's a great choice if you need a tool to help not only with your marketing plan, but as a staff development and learning tool.  It's a great choice if marketing is just one of the responsibilities that falls under your job title. 

For those who plan to spend time every day on social media or want to grow their social media and overall marketing efforts, 365 Days of Marketing can fuel your marketing plans in 2012 and for years to come.

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Three Ways to Update Your Funnel for the New B2B Buyer

B2B Buyer behavior is undergoing an extraordinary sea change triggered by Internet technology. Tech marketing and sales teams haven't caught up. They still rely on a 112-year-old sales funnel model. IDC introduces a new Customer Creation Framework better suited for the way customers really buy.

The Internet tsunami has radically changed B2B Buyer behavior. Before the Internet, the B2B buyer making a complex decision had few sources of information. Vendors leveraged that knowledge gap. The vendor sales person was the primary gateway to information the buyer needed to decide – a tremendously powerful position. Fast forward to today. The Internet and social media have triggered a turbulent change – the rich dialog has shifted on-line and away from the sales person.

As a result, the B2B Buyer in a complex sale is now an expert buyer with very different behavior and expectations.

• Buyers are constantly on-line. IDC research shows that IT buyers find online search and the vendor website more valuable sources of buying information than face-to-face conversations.



• Many times, buyers know more than sales people. 55% of buyers think sales people are only somewhat prepared or not prepared for initial meetings.



• B2B buyers, who are life-long consumers, bring that expertise to work, expecting concierge service.

The Internet tsunami has massively changed Buyer behavior. Yet, we’ve seen surprising little change in the traditional funnel.

The Empowered Buyer is Killing the Traditional Sales Funnel

The traditional sales funnel is 112 years-old and bears the unmistakable marks of the industrial-era. Buyers are treated like widgets that sellers manufacture into a product called a customer. But today's empowered Buyer is far from a widget. The industrial-era funnel is horribly out-of-touch with reality. Symptoms of a sick funnel are showing up in poor conversion rates, lengthening sales cycles, and marketing and sales management challenges.


A New Customer Creation Framework

To ensure that prospective buyers want to become customers, tech companies need a new framework that better aligns with the way buyers buy today. This framework should maintain what is valuable about the industrial-era funnel. For example, the graduated stages of the traditional funnel are a useful, practical tool for measuring progress.

In order to meet the needs of the 21st century tech buyer, this new framework, which IDC calls the Customer Creation Framework (Figure 2), must advance from tradition in three important ways:


Buyer-centric: Act like a Concierge
Replace the manufacturing mind-set with a service orientation. Act like a concierge who delights guests with information and support services that guide them through their "Buyer's Journey". The "Buyer's Journey" describes the cognitive process that a buyer goes through as he makes a decision. The industrial-era funnel was almost exclusively concerned with internal tasks – vendors must create awareness, stimulate interest, close deals, etc. These tasks will still exist. However, they are conducted in a spirit that put the buyer's needs front and center.

Integrate Marketing and Sales
Instead of the assembly-line-like hand-off between marketing and sales silos, the IDC Customer Creation Framework calls for an orchestrated collaboration between the two functions. The fact that today's Buyer desires high-quality digital buying support and never, ever, goes off-line has HUGE implications. The digital dialog is most intense in the early stages of the Buyer's Journey. However, Marketing, as the owner of the company’s digital dialog, can never disengage, can never hand-off. The sales team cannot simply wait for the “good leads”. They may meet a prospective Buyer at any stage – at an event, for example, or in the hallway of a current account. Sales people must be prepared to serve the Buyer at whatever stage he happens to be at. Marketing must be more active enabling this entire sales conversation.

Smart: Data-driven
Finally, IDC’s Customer Creation Framework is smarter than the traditional funnel. The entire customer creation process contains data that can be harvested to use as a feedback system. By analyzing this data, barriers and opportunities will be revealed. Companies can then use marketing and sales tactics like knobs and levers to tweak the behavior and outcomes of the pipeline. Tested marketing campaigns can be strategically applied to build advantage. Digital technology in the form of the Internet is killing yesterday's funnel. However, digital technology is also giving us amazing tools to manage in the new one.

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Financials Lead Early Action Despite Fitch Downgrade

The markets are higher again in early trading. Yesterday the rally faded as the trading session wore on. We shall see if the market can hang on to its early gains today. Today is also options expiration Friday which could make things a little more volatile, but usually most of the action happens at the open on these expiration days.

Financials are leading the early action. This despite Fitch downgrading the debt ratings of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and several European banks.

In economic news, the overall CPI came in flat for November, which was lower than consensus expectations. The core CPI rose 0.2%.

Asian markets were higher overnight, and most European markets are up this morning as euro bonds have seen a pullback in yields which has helped improve sentiment for the time being. The latest country looking for a bailout from the EU and IMF is Hungary.

The bounce in the euro and pullback in the dollar is helping gold prices bounce back to the $1600 level following a sharp 3-4 day selloff in the yellow metal. Oil prices are roughly flat near the $94 level. (We are still short oil via the SCO etf).

The 10-year yield continues to languish and has fallen all the way down to 1.86%. The bond market would seem to be pricing in more of an economic slowdown that most of the GDP forecasts that I have seen.

As for the VIX, it is now well below the 25 level which would signal a decline in the wild volatility that has been with us for months. It got as low as 23.50 this morning and is currently hovering just above the 24 level.

Trading comment: The SPX has bounced off of its overhead 50-day average both yesterday and again this morning. The 50-day sits near SPX 1228. That is the first level we need to close above for this rally to continue. Hopefully we don't get any more earnings warnings like we got from Intel. If so, I still think there is a shot for another push higher into year-end. I have been premature with this call, but did correctly point out that after the SPX tested its overhead 200-day moving average there would likely be a pullback and some consolidation first.

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Chart of the Day: Is The Run In Gold Over?

Below is the chart of gold. Over the last few days, gold prices have plunged and taken out some long-term support levels. You can see in the chart below that the gold etf (GLD) has now broken below its 200-day moving average. We have not seen this support breached in years.

If the 200-day is recaptured quickly, it could mean a shallow correction for gold. But if that key moving average is not recaptured in short order, it likely means gold prices are in for a longer, deeper correction process.

Gold prices often move inversely to the U.S. dollar, so that is a wild card in this scenario. In recent days, the euro has been very weak and there has been a flight-to-safety into dollars. If the debt situation in Europe continues to deteriorate I would expect the dollar to continue to act as a safe harbor. But I also wouldn't rule out EU officials making more announcements about "plans" to deal with the crisis which could continue to prop up their currency.

The next chart is the longer-term chart of the GLD going back to 2009. You can see that this is the first time that the long-term moving average has not held as support going all the way back to the early breakout in gold in 2009. So the recent price action is meaningful and as such I plan to keep the GLD front an center on my screens for the near-future.

For the time being, we have not trimmed any of our positions but will likely lighten up on future bounces.

long GLD

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The Euro Is In Charge

In recent months I have mentioned from time to time that if you want to know if the market is up or down on a given day, all you had to do was ask how the euro was doing. For the last few days, the euro has been under pressure and that has been weighing on the market.

Today, the euro is breaking down further and nearing a one-year low. Results from debt auctions in Germany and Italy failed to inspire any confidence. And the credit gauges in euroland have been deteriorating for weeks. I hope EU officials develop more of a sense of urgency.

The weak euro has pushed the dollar higher and led to a sharp selloff in commodities. Metals are down across the board today, led by silver. But gold prices are also getting hit hard and are now well below the $1600 level. Oil prices have also fallen down to the $96 level, a big drop from yesterday's rally to $100.

All of the 10 major sectors are lower so far, led by energy. Healthcare and utilities are down the least. Interestingly, REITs are actually mostly green on the day. Growth stocks are down the most relative to value stocks.

The 10-year yield is lower to 1.92%. It sure didn't stay above 2.0% for long. As for the VIX, it is up +7.7% today to 27.37, but still well below last weeks highs and yesterday it briefly dipped below 25 for the first time in months.

Trading comment: I have been trying to remain constructive on stocks, but this latest euro plunge is garnering all of the market's attention this week. The market is no longer overbought, and soon will be back to oversold levels. The SPX has broken below its 50-day average near 1226 and is currently trading near 1210. I don't want to see this 50-day average become resistance, so we need to see it recaptured in short order. Also, keep an eye on leading growth stocks, which had been looking okay but today are taking the brunt of the selling. I am watching our recent trades like RVBD, SCSS, TSCO, and ULTA closely.

long RVBD, SCO, SCSS, TSCO, ULTA

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Research Groupthink.

I recently sat in on a research group. There'd already been home testing and diary writing. Now there was a discussion about what the product/service category meant to the assembled group and, lastly, there was an element of further testing. It was a long, informed and opinionated session. And then they left the building and went home.

The research company will, no doubt, host other groups, write reports and make presentations that the client will digest, consider and have meetings about. But these engaged, informed and interested users will probably hear nothing more.

What a missed opportunity. One I've seen repeated by innumerable businesses employing a variety of external agencies throughout the process of product development and market research that make no attempt to leverage the enthusiasm of the potential customers they ultimately view solely as "participants".

Just think what might be unleashed by sending them a trial subscription or samples and discounts once their project finally gets to market. They're invested, they're interested and they're primed to promote and yet nothing happens because of the increasing compartmentalisation of marketing and its separation from product development.

Or, perhaps, the enthusing of a handful of people is not seen as a sufficiently grand gesture to feature on the marketing plan. A marketing plan that will pay lip-service to the importance of "lighting lots of small fires" but will ignore what's right in front of its face.

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Dip Buyers Surface In Early Trading

The market is higher in early trading, as buyers have stepped up to buy the latest dip that was yesterday's selloff. There isn't a whole lot in the way of positive news, but that hasn't gotten in the way of this morning's agenda to put some money to work.

The FOMC meets today and while there is some rumors of the Fed announcing further QE initiatives, I think the most likely scenario is to hear more of the same and that the Fed remains accomodative.

In corporate news, Best Buy (BBY) reported earnings that missed consensus estimates and its stocks is getting hit.

In economic news, retail sales were up 0.2% in November, which is less than expected. The combination of this report and poor BBY results is weighing on the retail sector this morning.

Asian markets were lower overnight, while Europe is getting a bounce this morning on little new news. There was some encouraging data out of Germany, but the euro is lower on the day so far.

Commodities are mixed. Gold prices are up a bit near $1670. Oil prices have been up the most, above $100 earlier, as news leaked out that Iran was looking to shut the Straight of Hormuz in some sort of military operation. But as news has come out that it remains open, oil has eased back from its highs.

The 10-year yield is getting a nice bounce near 2.05%. I think it would be a big positive for sentiment towards the economy if the 10-year yield could lift a little more. It did get up to 2.40% in October, but that rally was short-lived.

Probably the biggest suprise today was when I came in and saw the volatility index (VIX) down 9%. The VIX got as low as 23.27, although it has bounced from there. I actually bought a little VXX for a daytrade as these morning drops in the VIX never seem to stick for the entire session. But it is still a big positive if it can close below the 25 level.

Trading comment: Stocks are already off of the earlier highs as I finish this blog post. I expect trading to be relatively quiet until after the FOMC announcement when the fireworks usually begin. I don't expect any big surprises, but the market could still rally afterwards. Yesterday the SPX got down close to its 50-day support before bouncing. So the index has been squeezed between its overhead 200-day and its 50-day below. While the credit indicators are still flashing caution, I still believe we will see another push higher before year-end.

long SCO, VXX

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Want more customers? Fill your car with balloons.

So yesterday while driving home from nearby Enumclaw, Washington, I was winding my way along familiar back roads and slowed when I caught up to a white sedan driving just under the speed limit. While normally this might irritate me and my lead foot just a tad, yesterday, it didn’t. The car had only one occupant, a guy, but was also filled with red and green helium-filled balloons.

It was kind of obvious that he was looking for an address, because he kept slowing up at the crossroads. After about a mile, he turned off on a side street and I found myself wanting to follow him.

I wanted to know where he was going with all of those balloons. I’m guessing he was headed to a holiday party, and I am positive that any party that was going to play host to that many red and green bouncy balloons, straining to be released from their earthly tether, was going to be a good one.

Those red and green balloons promised me a good time.

When it comes to your business, is there anything about you or your team members that makes people want to follow you in to your business?  Attend your events?   Book appointments?   Is there anything about your website, Facebook page or email newsletter that promises a good time?

How can you become the man with a car full of balloons?

***

Elizabeth Kraus is the author of 365 Days of Marketing.

To build a business which provides the maximum when it comes to customer and employee engagement as well as profitability, change the way that you  understand and use marketing.  365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com or save $5 off the list price when you use the Code USH9VPJG and purchase on my site at 12monthsofmarketing.net.

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Monday Morning Musings

The markets are down sharply in early trading. So much for that bounce on Friday. As of now, it looks more like that was just a reprieve to the selling that started in earnest on Thursday. But let's see how the day shapes up.

Increased skepticism with Europe's latest "plan" has led to yields in countries like Italy and Spain rising again. Other credit metrics are also deteriorating today. Europe's stocks markets and the euro are all lower this morning.

The drop in the euro is boosting the dollar and hurting commodities. Oil prices are down to $97.65, and gold prices have plunged all the way to $1661. Copper and silver prices are also down sharply.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, with Japan higher but China down again. Some numbers out over the weekend suggested that growth decelerated for China in November.

Here in the U.S., Intel (INTC) lowered its outlook for the current quarter and that weighed on the tech sector and the overall market. INTC is blaming it on disk drive shortages (Thai flood), but most think it is also related to overall PC demand.

The 10-year yield is hovering just above that 2.00% level at 2.01%; And the VIX is up 4% so far near 27.45, but still well below last week's highs after that sharp move lower on Friday.

Trading comment: Selling has picked up again as the choppy trading since hitting the 200-day average continues. The lows on the SPX from Thursday are near 1231. So far today we have not broke below those levels, but if 1231 gives way we could see selling pick up steam. The enthusiasm over the can kicking from the EU summit last week seems to have faded quickly. I have mentioned that I thought most folks would be in dip buying mode into year end, and I still think that is the case. But I acknowledged the likely possibility of a pullback and more consolidation before the SPX made another stab at taking out is overhead 200-day resistance. I think that is what we are seeing now, but I still think buyers will step up again. So I will be patient and look for stocks that are holding up well to add to into this decline.

long SH

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The Little Things that Cost Your Business, Big Time

I love football. I’ve been an avid fan since I was young, mostly of college ball, but now that I’m married to a bona fide ‘cheese head’ – a native of Fond du Lac, Wisconsin – I’m watching a lot of pro ball too. During one of the games I watched today, a team (thankfully not the Packers) made several very fundamental mistakes which resulted in yards and yards of lost ground for their team, on offense and defense. I told my husband that if I were their coach, those guys would be running basic drills and running lines all next week. They'd be going through the basics until they had them down to the point that they occurred automatically, without mistakes, each and every time.  

Football is hard enough—what with 300 pound linemen trying to kill you, wily, veteran linebackers looking to pick one off, tacklers coming in trying to strip the ball and the like. With so many “big” things to worry about (like those linemen) it’s critical that your team doesn’t make things that much harder for themselves by missing small details or making little mistakes like jumping ahead of the snap count, lining up wrong or failing to get extra people off the field before the next play starts.

It’s the same when it comes to your business: The competition wants to crush you; in this sluggish economy, you have to make every ‘play’ count. 

You can’t afford to screw up on the basics—things that should be pretty much automatic because they’ve already been drilled in to your employee culture to the point that individual team members don’t have to think about them to get them right.

Things like friendly greetings and good attitudes. Things like a culture where employees are encouraged and empowered to go out of their way to accommodate customers, to solve problems and make sure people get connected with exactly what they need and want.

Things like making sure that your building’s exterior and signage, entry, waiting area, lobby and rest rooms make people feel welcome, comfortable and clean.  Things like arriving on time, opening on time, keeping appointments running on time and being convenient for your customers.

Things like scripts for prescriptive products clients should be using at home and add-on products and services.  Things like preventing traffic jams or long waits during the appointment-making, check in or check out processes, or on the phones. 

The last thing you want to do is beat yourself.

Take some time to think about things that you take for granted will be part of your customer’s experience, each and every time they do business with you or interact with your business. Do all your team members agree, and do they fully understand and know what these are? Double check to be sure that your team members don’t need a refresher on the basics and to determine whether it’s time to craft some new basic ‘plays’ to add to your business’s playbook.

***

Elizabeth Kraus, author of 365 Days of Marketing and the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies.

Dispel all the little white marketing lies that might be holding your business back - check out the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies on amazon.com.  With hundreds of marketing ideas laid out for 2012, you'll get into a marketing groove and build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients!

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Remember Pearl Harbor Day and a Generational Marketing Breakdown

Earlier this week, Pearl Harbor Day (December 7) was observed to remember the day Japanese bombers attacked the US forces stationed in Hawaii—an act which brought the US, finally, into World War II. It's a day to honor those that fell and all those who served. It was the members of "the greatest generation" whose lifeblood and sacrifices made on the front lines of the war and at home paid for the freedoms we still enjoy as Americans.

What is "The Greatest Generation?"

The term “the greatest generation” was coined by Tom Brokaw to describe the generation of people that grew up during the great depression and whose members fought in World War II. This generation grew up in a time of incredible and sometimes even painful want, yet had the backbone and determination to face and overcome some of the most difficult challenges imaginable. Pearl Harbor Day is the perfect day to honor “the greatest generation” for the sacrifices they made, for their wisdom and for the much of the prosperity we have enjoyed in generations since.

Famous members of this generation include people like John F. Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, George H.W. Bush, Walter Cronkite, Joe DiMaggio, Billy Graham, Charles Schultz, Ronald Reagan, Jackie Robinson, and many more who went on to make major contributions in shaping the world and our society as we know it.

Honor members of “the greatest generation” by soliciting stories and nominations of local individuals who are members of this generation, holding an open house, extending dedicated happy hours or shopping hours, giving special awards or honors or by extending a special offer or free gift to them.

In recent years many reports and articles have been written as to the characteristics of different generations, how to market to them, how to manage them as employees, etc. At a minimum, you should be familiar with the general breakdown and marketing generalizations:

The Greatest Generation: Born between about 1909 and 1942, they’ve seen it all when it comes to advertising. They are savvy consumers who are careful about who they do business with. They want to know more about your business and about you, before doing business with you. Keen on value, they don’t shop just for fun. Having spent their early years in the Great Depression, they try not to waste anything if they can help it.

Baby Boomers: Born from about 1943 and 1965, on average this generation outspends other generations by $400 billion per year. They have exceptional drive and the ability to evaluate (and see through) advertising to find out whether something has real value. This group is projected to grow to represent as much as 20% of the total population by 2030.

Generation X:  Born between about 1965 and 1980, a somewhat overlooked generation whose members are now entering/in their peak earning and buying years. Generally very tech savvy, they love to shop. They put a high value on education and knowledge. Prestige is a draw for this generation, but value trumps labels.

Generation Y:  Born from about 1981 and 1990, the children of Baby Boomers, many members of this generation lived longer at home than did previous generations. Tech savvy, Gen Y members process information quickly and tend to be brand loyal.

Gen Z or the Internet Generation:  Born between 2000 – present, the children of the youngest Baby Boomers. The only generation to be born fully in the internet era and the only generation whose parents are also (generally) more accepting of technology.

For more information about national and regional demographics, visit www.census.gov.

The above is an excerpt from December 7 in 365 Days of Marketing.


***

Elizabeth Kraus is the author of 365 Days of Marketing.

If you want to build a business which provides the maximum when it comes to customer and employee satisfaction and loyalty as well as profitability, change the way that you  understand and use marketing.  365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com or save $5 off the list price when you use the Code USH9VPJG and purchase on my site at 12monthsofmarketing.net.

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Stocks React Positively To EU Summit Announcement

There weren't a ton of details provided about the new agreements that came out of the EU summit, but after yesterday's sharp selloff the news was enough to spur buyers back into the market.

The members agreed to tighter fiscal controls, with penalties for member nations that exceed budget deficits of more than 3% of GDP. They also stepped up the time table with which the ESM should enter the picture. But it looked to me like the dollar amounts they are talking about are still not enough to really ringfence the problems. Also, Britain decided not to sign and join into the agreement as they don't want to cede any fiscal sovereignty.

Asian markets were lower overnight, despite a CPI figure out of China that looked better than expected. Europe's markets are higher this morning, and the euro is getting a slight boost as well.

Commodities are mostly higher, except for oil prices which have been slight lower near $98.20 this morning. Gold prices are up to $1716, and copper and silver prices are higher as well.

In corporate news, both Texas Instruments (TXN) and DuPont (DD) lowered their forecasts. Those stocks are getting hit, but are not weighing on the rest of the market for the most part.

The 10-year yield is trying to get back above the 2.00% level after falling below it in yesterday's trading. And the VIX is down 7% so far down to 28.40 after spiking back above the 30 level yesterday.

Trading comment: We still have a long way to go into today's session, but so far buyers have already stepped up to the plate. I have said I thought we were in the timeframe of the year where most investors would be in buy-the-dip mode. And since yesterday was a pretty big dip by most measures, it is not surprising to see buyers come into the market. The SPX continues to consolidate underneath its 200-day average. I still believe it will make a successful breakout before year-end. But I also realized the credit gauges have not improved, and the chances for another correction in Q112 remain high.

Jordan Kahn and/or KAM clients are: long GLD, SCO, SLV, and SH

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