Romney Didn't Make the Sale

Did Mitt Romney make the economic sale at the Republican National Convention? Did he convince people who are living at the margin or unemployed and discouraged that he has the answers to the economy? Frankly, I don’t think so.

I do not understand why he did not talk about his 20 percent across-the-board personal tax cut plan that would help the middle class enormously. He never mentioned it and he went into no detail on the business tax cut plan.

This plan is terrific for competition and global investment. He talked about a jobs tour. I frankly have no idea what a “jobs tour” is. I do know that 23 million Americans need jobs. I don’t know that they need a president on a jobs tour to inspect them.

It concerns me that in the economic zone, he didn’t make the sale to the independents, so-called Reagan Democrats, or to Clinton Democrats. I didn’t hear anything new. I didn’t hear anything specific, and it troubles me. I do think he helped himself enormously with his biographical narrative. He came off as a humble, grateful man.

Again, on the economic front I don’t think he made the sale; I don’t think he convinced the independent voters and I don’t think he’s going in the right direction in tax policy.

ON BIG BUSINESS:

I think he needs to be more specific. It’s not about big business -- it’s really about small business. And guess what? Small businesses pay the personal tax rate — the LLCs and the S-corps. That is another reason why I don’t understand why he doesn’t talk about the 20 percent tax cut. It helps small businesses and it’s the opposite contrast to Obama, who wants to raise taxes on those people. I didn’t hear any contrast Thursday night, except a passage on success. The best line from an economic standpoint was “In America, we celebrate success, we don’t apologize for success." That is a great line, but I wish he had more contrast with President Obama.

ON MARCO RUBIO:

Sen. Marco Rubio’s introduction of Romney was one of the most brilliant speeches I have heard in a long time. Freedom was his key point. America is about freedom — economic freedom, political freedom, religious freedom, and faith. It was just utterly brilliant and the guy is an absolute Republican superstar.

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Bernanke: The Song Remains The Same

The market is higher in early trading, coming more off the heels of developments in Europe as opposed to comments from Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole.

Europe's markets were higher this morning after the EU plans to make the ECB the sole authority in granting back licenses.  This could pave the way for the ESM to get a bank license which as we have said would dramatically increase its lending capacity.  There is also chatter that the head of the Bundesbank is resigning, which would remove one of the biggest opponent's to the ECB's current plan of action.

The above news has the euro rallying as well as Euro stock markets.  Asian markets were lower overnight on continued fears of a hard-landing in China.

As for Bernanke's speech, I have been saying for weeks that I thought it was highly unlikely that we would hear about new QE initiatives and that it was more likely that he would reiterate what he as been saying recently - that the Fed stands ready to provide additional stimulus as needed by the economy.

That is exactly the tone that Bernanke's speech took today.  He said that the use of non-traditional policies involves higher costs that traditional policies, and as such the bar should be higher for the use of such policies.  He also took a stab at the Administration for its lack of further fiscal initiatives by saying that "Monetary policy cannot achieve by itself what a broader and more balanced set of economic policies might achieve."

The market showed some initial disappointment with his remarks and sold off, but that dip was quickly bought again as investors conclude that the Fed stills stands ready to step in, and the ECB is getting closer to providing more support to Europe.  Also, a note out of Goldman this am says they think China's economy will pick up into the end of the year.

Commodities are higher on the lower dollar today.  Oil prices are higher near $95.88.  Gold prices are up to $1672, and silver prices are higher as well.

The 10-year yield remains weak falling to 1.60%.  And the VIX is down -4% back to 17.13.

Trading comment: Looks like the Bernanke selloff came a day early and today's market strength is more about optimism that the ECB will announce some policy initiatives next week to help the eurozone crisis.  I expect volume to be light today ahead of the holiday weekend so I don't want to make any big bets before next week.  Volume levels should pick up again in September and we will see if the market has the strength to push to new highs or if it needs a deeper pullback first.

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Bulls Pull In Their Horns Ahead of Jackson Hole

The market is lower in early trading, following weakness in overseas markets overnight.  Asian markets were lower across the board.  A Chinese State economist said inflation will rise above 3.0% in August, which might explain why the PBOC has been reluctant to lower interest rates.

Europe's markets are also lower despite Germany posting an in-line unemployment rate of 6.8%.  Bond yields in both Italy and Spain are slightly higher today after Italy auctioned off 5- and 10-yr debt.  Angela Merkel is visiting China, where the Prime Minister said his country remains committed to investing in Europe.  But I haven't seen many initiatives aimed at helping Europe at large, rather the moves I've seen are strategic investments by China to strengthen their commodity needs.

In the US, retailers released same-store sales for the month and many have been better than expected.  But retails stocks are flattish overall, being held back by the bearish tone of trading today.

The dollar index is rising again weighing on most commodities.  Oil prices have pulled back to $94.00, and gold prices have eased to $1654.

The 10-year yield is hovering above its 50-day support near 1.62%.  And the VIX has spiked 5% this morning, breaking above its 50-day average to 18.0.

Trading comment: I think some traders were hoping the market would rally more going into the Jackson Hole event, looking for a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news type pattern.  But the market has been flat the last few days so maybe some of these folks are taking some chips off the table today ahead of the big event tomorrow.  I am on record as saying I do not expect any explicit new QE initiatives, and that could leave the market ripe for disappointment.  To the extent that the market pulls back today, that could lower the odds of a larger selloff tomorrow.  I also expect that volume will be relatively light tomorrow ahead of the Labor Day weekend, which could add to the element of volatility.  But next week things heat up again as traders return from their vacations and the ECB meets next week hopefully with some further policy announcements.

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Paul Ryan's Speech: Too Much Debt, Not Enough Growth

Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan gave a powerful speech Wednesday that repeatedly brought conventioneers at the Republican National Convention in Tampa to their feet.  I am going to give him high marks for his speech’s delivery.

Ryan, in typical fashion, seriously and analytically ripped apart the Obama Economy, what has been called Obamanomics.  He ripped it to pieces, and it needed to be done.  But most especially, he ripped apart Obamacare.  Ryan also did his level best to defend the Republicans against the usual attacks on Medicare reform—that is, what the Democrats call “Mediscare”.

However, I was disappointed that his economic growth solutions were somewhat muddled and unclear.  At one point in the speech, rather than speak about Mitt Romney’s own tax rate proposals, Ryan used the term “tax fairness,” a Democratic term frequently used by President Obama and other liberal Democrats.   This was surprising to me.   Ryan cited Jack Kemp and the Reagan tax reform (and I am, of course, part of that gang).

But the reality is, Ryan never mentioned tax cuts during his speech.  Not the 20 percent across-the-board supply-side reduction in marginal tax rates, nor the 25 percent corporate tax rate down from 35 percent.  These pro-growth measures have been proposed by Mitt Romney, but it is a mystery to me why Ryan did not mention them.  

He dwelled on debt to an extreme point.  I don’t think discussing debt connects with people who are unemployed or marginally employed.  I think they want a good-paying job, and debt is almost an academic abstraction.    When Republicans run on debt and deficits, they almost always lose.    When Republicans run on growth, limited government, lower spending, lower tax rates, and de-regulation—they win.  Ryan’s speech was confusing on the growth issue, and that was disappointing;  I don’t want to be confused and the American people shouldn’t be confused.

It will be left to Mitt Romney on Thursday night to clarify his own growth policies.   I want growth, growth, growth.  Wednesday night,  I didn’t get growth, growth, growth;   I heard debt, debt, debt. 

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Sepeda Motor Bebek Injeksi Kencang dan Irit Jupiter Z1

Yamaha dengan bangga memperkenalkan motor terbarunya All New Jupiter Z1 yang mana merupakan motor bebek pertamanya yang memilki teknologi Fuel Injection. Mesin baru All New Jupiter Z1 performance-nya meningkat 20 persen karena mengadopsi teknologi motor balap YZ Crankshaft Technology, Low Friction Technology dan Forged Piston. YZ Crankshaft Technology meningkatkan akselerasi dan torsi, sudah digunakan di motor trail Yamaha YZ450F yang banyak disukai oleh kaum muda dikarenakan karakter kencangnya.

Kecanggihan teknologi FI semakin menyempurnakan All New Jupiter Z1 yang terkenal dengan kecepatannya. Akselerasinya yang responsif dan dilengkapi dengan bodi motornya yang didesain lebih efisien untuk menembus angin, mudah bermanuver dan menikung meskipun saat traffic jam.
Dengan All New Jupiter Z1, berkendara semakin nyaman sebab perpindahan gigi dan suara mesin lebih halus, dan tentunya perawatannya lebih mudah sehingga disukai oleh konsumen.
Spesifikasi dari mesinnya tipe mesin 4-langkah, 2 valve, SOHC, berpendingin udara dan berkapasitas 113,7 cc. Mesinnya mampu menghasilkan tenaga hingga 10,06 PS di putaran 7.750 rpm dengan torsi puncak mencapai 9,9 Nm di 6.500 rpm.

Selain dengan kualitas kecepatannya, All New Jupiter Z1 memiliki penampilan yang menarik dan gagah. Dikarenakan Striping atau grafis motornya didesain dengan grafis-grafis yang unik dan indah sehingga menghiasi bodi motor. Teknologi serta striping dan warna barunya yang benar fantastis, grafisnya bertemakan gold metal dragon heart (naga emas dari emas yang tengah mencakar). Yamaha mengambil elemen material metal untuk memperkuat kesan canggih modern. Desain pada bodi All New Jupiter Z1 sangat menarik dengan tulisan Fuel Injection pada leg shield kanan dan kiri. Lalu di dekat front panel adastiker All New Jupiter Z1.

Yamaha memberikan beragam warna supaya lebih memuaskan konsumen, hero bike warna putih dibuat beda sendiri dengan tiga warna dasarnya putih dikombinasikan dengan merah dan hitam. Warna merah ditempatkan pada center backbone, ini pertama kalinya warna merah ada di bagian itu untuk motor bebek di Indonesia. Merah menggambarkan kecanggihan Fuel Injection.

Warna putih kombinasi merah dan hitam hanya buat All New Jupiter Z1 CW (Cast Wheel). Varian velg racingitu tersedia juga empat warna lainnya, biru kombinasi warna hitam, hitam dengan hitam, hijau hitam dan merah hitam. Untuk empat warna itu bagian centre backbone nya berwarna hitam.
Fiturnya pun makin kaya dan bergaya dengan pinstripe berwarna merah buat Jupiter Z1 CW warna merah, hitam dan putih. Sedangkan All Jupiter Z1 CW warna biru dan hijau pinstripe nya dipilih berwarna putih. Yamaha juga menyediakan Jupiter Z1 Spoke Wheel (velg jari-jari) warna hitam kombinasi hitam dan warna merah kombinasi hitam.

Yamaha  merilis harga motor bebek pertamanya yang berteknologi motor balap dan Fuel Injection (FI) ini. Ada dua harga yang dikeluarkan yaitu untuk All New Jupiter Z1 CW (Cast Wheel) dan All New Jupiter Z1 SW (Spoke Wheel). Untuk on the road Jakarta dan wilayah sekitarnya, All New Jupiter Z1 CW dibanderol seharga 15,1 juta rupiah. Harga ini naik 500 ribu rupiah dibandingkan sebelumnya 14,6 juta rupiah. Sedangkan All New Jupiter Z1 SW harganya 14,3 juta rupiah, jadi lebih murah 300 ribu rupiah.

All New Jupiter Z1 tetap dengan karakter cepat namun memiliki mesin baru dan berteknologi FI, sesuai tagline-nya "Yang Lain Semakin Ketinggalan Lagi" dan key message Mesin Baru, Fuel Injection, Performa Semakin Dahsyat.

 

Semoga informasi tentang Sepeda Motor Bebek Injeksi Kencang dan Irit Jupiter Z1 ini bisa bermanfaat bagi anda khususnya pecinta dunia otomotif.    Untuk informasi lebih lengkap anda bisa akses di http://www.yamaha-motor.co.id/

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Q2 GDP Gets Positive Revision

The market is again flattish near the open but not really giving much back.  This quite action looks to me like more consolidation of recent gains that could lead to another push higher, although I also think the lack of any QE mentions on Friday from Jackson Hole could lead to some short-term disappointment.

In economic news, Q2 GDP got a positive revision from 1.5% to 1.7%.  Separately, pending home sales for July rose 2.4%, which is a big turnaround from the previous month's -1.4% decrease.

Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with China down another -1.0% after the Vice Commerce Minister reiterated that weak exports will weigh on the country's growth objectives.  Last night Joy Global (JOY) missed estimates and lowered guidance due to weakness in both Europe and China.

Europe's markets were lower this morning but have bounced since after ECB President Draghi reiterated that it will do whatever is necessary to maintain price stability.

The dollar index is higher today and weighing on most commodities.  Oil prices are lower to $95.15.  Gold prices are pulling back near $1660.  And silver and copper prices are lower also.

The 10-year yield is higher today to 1.67%.  And the VIX is also higher by 1% to 16.68, which is bumping it right up against its overhead 50-day resistance.

Trading comment: Our market continues to hover near recent highs without giving much back.  Normally this is bullish action, and shows the market is resting and potentially building its internal energy for another push higher.  This comes against a backdrop where global growth continues to slow.  Europe is in recession with austerity measures still taking hold.  And China is slowing with less levers to pull to stimulate growth as easily as it has in the past.  The Shanghai stock market is back to March 2009 lows, which has to be a bad sign in and of itself.  So those are the crosscurrents facing investors today.  It almost feels like a game of musical chairs where investors want to stay in stocks for as long as the music continues to play, but once it stops there could be a rush to the exits. 

KAM Advisors has short positions in JOY

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Lead Management Report: IDC Finds Leaders are Smart, Agile, Automated, and Aligned

IDC CMO Advisory Service's latest best practice report, Realizing the Vision of 21st Century Lead Management, presents a newer, smarter way to conduct lead management that is better adapted to the reality of how customers buy today.  Combining proven management science methods with best practices from leading technology companies, the new model is more scientific, more data driven, more agile, more automated, more aligned between sales and marketing, and more customer service oriented, than the 100+ year-old funnel.

 

It's becoming common knowledge that the Internet has revolutionized B2B buyer's behavior, knowledge, and expectations. B2B marketers and sellers have outgrown the traditional funnel approach and are scrambling to adjust to the impact of the new buyer dialog.  The new B2B buyer dialog presents the following challenges for lead management:

• Complexity: Lead management used to consist only of qualifying leads and passing the best ones to the sales team. Now marketers must juggle this task while simultaneously conducting a perpetual digital dialog that informs and influences the prospect. Wrestling this complexity requires a more sophisticated and formalized lead management process.
• Orchestration of digital and human communication: The traditional funnel dictated a one-way "hand off" from marketing to sales. However, because buyers are always online, the concept of a binary "hand off" is obsolete. Marketing can never truly disengage. Rather than make a true marketing exit, a team orientation is maintained.
• Marketing accountability: B2B marketing departments are under considerable pressure to be accountable. Financial pressure from economic uncertainty and slipping sales productivity has brought the lead management process into harsh scrutiny. Expectations have risen because of the availability of spreadsheets, dashboards, and analytics tools to slice and dice any facet of marketing. The C-suite is becoming aware of how much more of their destiny now rides in the hands of the CMO.

Although each company must operate lead management with an eye for their own unique set of environmental requirements and logistical challenges, there are basic tasks that remain the same in every case. The tasks are: strategic planning, capture, assess, advance, develop, close and monitor/measure/analyze.

The building blocks of lead management success

One common misconception is that the tasks assessment (qualification), advancement (routing), and development (nurturing), occur only once in a lead life-cycle.  This may have been true in the simple, old, days. However, most companies today have a requirement for a more sophisticated multi-channel approach.  The IDC model treats the assess/advance/develop tasks as a modular block or cell. A simple workflow starts with a single cell that can do a little work. By using multiples of this same simple block - and applying best practices to the tasks in each block - marketers can build a measurable, optimized, multi-celled organism that can do amazing things - including blending with the sales methodology.

IDC found 16 important success factors including:

• Define consistent global standards, including a common language. More companies attribute their lead management success to this practice than to any other. By eliminating unnecessary complexity and redundancy, companies gain better control and achieve more predictable performance. Calibrating data to standards also opens the door for predictive analytics and trusted insight.
• Establish long-term, cross-functional councils. Best practice companies realize that lead management, while led by marketing, is part of an enterprise process. One firm teams up a 30-person council each year for three months to prioritize projects, determine standards and processes, and resolve issues.
• Treat leads like valuable but limited assets. Companies experienced in 21st century lead management operate in ways that express respect for buyers. Leads are carefully vetted, nurtured in a personalized way, and sometimes recycled rather than merely captured, qualified, and thrown over to sales. Best practice marketers use automation extensively. To remove hurdles and assist a buyer, this automation is integrated with the human factor — telefunctions and blended media, such as chat and social, as well as high-touch sales.

Clients of the IDC CMO Advisory Service can access the full report here.

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