Bond Auctions Improve In Spain and Italy

The market was poised to move higher at the open after improved sentiment in Europe helped push their markets and the euro higher. Spain and Italy both held successful bond auctions where yields were well lower than they had been at previous auctions.

But some early economic data in the U.S. took the wind out of the market's sails. Retail sales came in weaker than expected at 0.1% (vs. 0.4% consensus), and retail sales ex-autos actually fell 0.2% in December. Also, weekly jobless claims were higher than expected.

Back to the ECB, President Draghi held the benchmark rate at 1.00%, but said that substantial downside risks to economic activity in Europe remain.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight after some Chinese inflation data came in higher than expected. This calls into question just how easy China will become with monetary policy given that inflation is still a problem there.

The dollar is down which is helping commodities. Oil prices are higher near $102.25. Gold prices are also up to $1635. Copper and silver prices are higher as well.

The 10-year yield is getting a small bounce to 1.92%. But the overall low levels on the 10-year do not bode particularly well for an immediate pickup in economic activity.

As for the VIX, it is up 4% in early trading to 21.87. The recent downtrend in the VIX remains intact, despite the ongoing possibility for a move higher in the near-term.

Trading comment: The market continues to put together constructive price/volume action. Pullbacks have been contained well. There is talk about Greece having difficulty making its upcoming debt payments. This could cause the whole Euro debt issue to flare up again, as we know it hasn't been solved by any means. The market seems to be calm right now with those issues, perceiving that the 'kick the can' policies are effective. But at some point I expect the whole thing to flare up again. That may not be today's agenda, but it is something to keep in mind as investor adjust their asset allocations. We still have some hedges on just in case.

KAM Advisors and/or clients are long GLD, SCO, SH

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Are We Starting To Decouple From The Euro?

The markets are mixed this morning, but still doing better than I would have thought given that the euro is lower on the day. I have harped on the fact that whenever the euro was down over the last year you could pretty much bet our markets were down also.

So far this year we are starting to see a little decoupling from that relationship. I know its still early in the year, but so far the euro is down -2.0% since the start of the year while the S&P 500 has gained +2.5%. Hey, it's a start right??

European markets are lower this morning ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, except for China which pulled back -0.4% after that 2 day surge.

Energy stocks (XLE) are down the most this morning, as oil pulls back near the $100.50 level. Gold prices are higher to $1643. Silver prices are higher also, while copper looks flat right now.

There isn't much in the way of market moving data this morning. Economic reports are light, and earnings season doesn't really kick into high gear until next week.

Trading comment: Recently I commented on the S&P holding solidly above its 200-day average. The two indexes that had yet to retake their 200-days were the S&P 400 Midcap and the Russell 2000 small-cap. But yesterday both of those indexes joined the senior indexes and now all of the major indexes are above their respective 200-day averages. The longer the S&P 500 stays around these levels the closer we get to its 50-day average crossing back above its 200-day average. Traders call this a "golden cross", and it would be another bullish sign for the market.

KAM Advisors and clients are long GLD, SCO

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Why People Hate Marketing.

 

It's not marketing of course. It's an amalgamation of ideas that have been knocking around for the past few years bundled together with nonsensical jargon and a ripped-off presentation style.

The thinking isn't bad, but the most impressive thing is being able to say "Liquid linkage to big fat fertile spaces" with a straight face.

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Show Customers You Care - 10 Valentines Day Marketing Ideas for Small Business

Now that you’ve taken down the snowflakes, lights and tinsel, you’re probably looking for Valentine’s Day decorating and marketing ideas for your small business. These Valentine’s Day marketing ideas are more than window dressing, and that’s the point, because people won't care about your business until they know how much you care about them!

Here are 10 marketing ideas for Valentine’s Day to help you build business, show customers you care and cultivate customer love and loyalty:

1. Use Facebook and Twitter to send 29 messages of affection to your customers.
Every day in February (and it’s a Leap Year, so there will be 29 days in the month) put blog and Facebook posts and Tweets out into the social media universe that conveys some measure of your affection for customers, a customer service promise or another customer care oriented message. And create a special Valentine’s Day email to send to your contacts on February 14th. That's 30 ways to say "I love you" to your customers!

2. Create your own Valentine’s Day love themed set of coupons.
You know how couples often create Valentines Day IOUs for back rubs and date nights? Create your own Valentine's Day IOUs in the form of bounce back offers distributed at the point of sale, via email and social media redeemable for a gift with purchase, discount or add on the next time they buy from your business.

3. Hold a 14 Days of Valentines contest or give away.
Every day from February 1-14, hold a contest or drawing to give away an inexpensive but desirable product, service, add on or even a branded coffee, water or travel mug, t-shirt or another branded tchotchke. Put together a grand prize for the February 14th drawing (such as a gift basket, collection with one of each of the items given away previously, larger ticket item, etc.)

4. Don’t forget the singles!
Obviously, everyone doesn’t have a significant other. The singles among your client base may well be sick of all the talk of love and romance. Cater to them by way of a romance-free shopping event or go the other direction and hold singles shopping hour mixers. Include a few love-cynical quotes on Facebook and Twitter. Or celebrate with special offers on February 15th, which is “Call in Single Day.”

5. Take time for introspection and show some love to your employees.
Study after study (not to mention common sense) tells us that engaged employees – employees who see themselves as aligned and connected with the brand and culture of the business where they work – are happier, more likely to deliver exceptional customer service and more likely to proactively resolve customer’s problems (or even go out of their way to prevent them). Your customers are much more likely to feel ‘loved’ by your business when your employees do, too! During February, send Valentines or notes of appreciation to your staff noting personal traits and talents you appreciate. Post customer raves on social media and in employee break and lunch areas. Hold a Valentine’s Day luncheon or send chocolates or flowers to each at home.

6. Put Cupid to work in your business.
Literally, put Cupid to work in your business. Solicit a staff volunteer to dress as Cupid and stand inside or outside of your business, distributing business cards, special offers, branded pens or promotional items, etc. Or hold a Cupid-hosted Valentine’s Day open house, extended shopping hours for VIP or loyalty club customers or another special event.

7. Send Valentines to people who need and deserve them.
Collect or create Valentines to be given to soldiers, seniors, cancer patients or another deserving group. Ask customers to bring signed Valentines or hold a DIY Valentine craft workshop for kids (of all ages). Feature the project in a press release and in stories on your website, social media, email newsletter and blog.

8. Live out the spirit of Valentine’s Day.
Donate a portion of proceeds or proceeds from the sales of specific products or services to a local deserving charity, or hold an a-thon type of event with proceeds and solicited donations going to charity. And don’t forget to tell people about the good works that you do for charity or in your community in communications via your website, blog, in email newsletters and on social media.

9. Get closer to your customers and prospects.
Do a customer service survey. Solicit customer comments, raves, reviews and other feedback. Form a focus group from among your most loyal customers to discuss one or more aspects of the customer experience which could be improved. Use customer or child-created Valentine arts and crafts to decorate within your business and feature them in photos on your website, email newsletter, social media and your blog.

10. Reward your best customers.
Double loyalty points or rewards for all purchases, your most loyal customers, club members or double up rewards or points when customers purchase specific products or services in February. Extend a special offer such as a free or reduced-price add on, gift with purchase or another incentive to your best customers or loyalty reward members. Send a Valentine to your most loyal customers by mail or email.

11. BONUS:  Looking for Valentine’s Day decorating ideas for your business?
Last month I found Pinterest and became immediately immersed (or, more accurately, addicted) as it appeals to my own A.D.D. approach to the internet. It’s an especially great resource for finding holiday craft and decorating ideas, including ideas for how to decorate your business for Valentine’s Day. You'll find some of my favorites here, but I highly recommend that you visit www.pinterest.com and take a look around, yourself. My next email newsletter will include this article about using Pinterest for business.

Merely decorating the windows, walls and displays in your business for Valentine’s Day is not enough. For customers to believe you care, your efforts must come out of authenticity. Remember the Law of Reflection? The principle included in my Top 10 Small Business Marketing Ideas at position #5 was this: No one— not your customers, employees, vendors or investors— no one is going to put more into the relationship they have with your business than you do. Your investment (the extent to which you go to show customers that you really care about them) will be reflected in their ‘love’ for and loyalty to your business. The return is never going to be more than your investment!

***


Elizabeth Kraus is the author of 365 Days of Marketing.

If you want to build a business which provides the maximum when it comes to customer and employee satisfaction and loyalty as well as profitability, change the way that you  understand and use marketing.  365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com or save $5 off the list price when you use the Code USH9VPJG and purchase on my site at 12monthsofmarketing.net.

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China Rallies Hard For 2nd Straight Day

The markets are nicely higher in early trading, taking their cues from overseas markets which were up sharply overnight. Asian markets were up across the board, led by another 2.7% gain in China where expectations for easier monetary policy appear to be the catalyst.

In Europe, analysts at Fitch indicated that France and Germany are likely to maintain their top credit ratings in 2012. A lot of folks have been expected France to get downgraded, so this news emboldened the bulls and Europe's markets rallied hard.

The strong 2-day rally in China has helped economically-sensitive materials stocks (XLB), which are leading the early action. Financials (XLF) are strong too, while defensive consumer staples (XLP) stocks are lagging so far.

The dollar is only down slightly, but commodities have caught a bid as well. Gold prices are up near $1635, silver prices are higher, and copper is higher as well. Oil prices are back to $102.50.

The 10-year yield is only up slightly to 1.98%, still unable to get above that 2.0% level. And the VIX is down -4.7% today to nearly a 6-month low near the psychologically important 20 level. This is a good sign for the bulls, although I still feel like a short-term spike in the VIX could be coming if we get a sharp pullback in the market.

Trading comment: The market continues to power higher. Leadership is not as broad as it often is during market advances. The list of new highs is more littered with defensive type names rather than traditional quality growth stocks. That is another reason why I feel that not everyone has embraced this rally. I know that the sentiment surveys are growing more bullish on the one hand, but on the other hand it still feels like a market climbing the proverbial wall of worry.

-jordan kahn

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Getting Ready For Earnings Season

There isn't a whole lot in the way of market moving news this morning. After the close today Q4 earnings season will kick off with Alcoa (AA) reporting. I don't know that many people that key off of this report, but it is still the official start to earnings season.

Overnight Asian markets rallied led by China's 3% spurt higher. There were positive comments from Chinese leaders along with rising expectations for easing monetary policy after data showing an increase in lending and money supply. This is somewhat odd given the Premier's cautious comments last week, but nothing is normal when it comes to gauging China.

In early trading, financials (XLF) are leading the way while healthcare (XLV) stocks are lagging.

The euro is getting a little bounce vs. the dollar, and commodities are mixed. Oil prices are lower near $100.90 despite increased rhetoric with Iran. And gold prices are a bit higher to $1620. Silver prices are also higher, while copper looks lower right now.

The 10-year yield is flat around 1.96%. And the VIX is getting a bounce from Friday's low levels, currently 3% higher to 21.30.

Trading comment: Most of the major indexes are now above their respective 200-day averages, and have held those levels for more than a couple of days. I still think this bodes well for another push higher. The market is overbought short-term, which could be a headwind this week. I don't like taking large positions in new stocks ahead of earnings, but we do continue to trade around our long positions with an upward bias. We are still long most of our recent trades, including SCSS, ULTA, and STMP. AAPL shares remain our largest position, and the shares briefly hit a new all-time high this morning. Despite the high price tag, AAPL shares do not yet appear close to being overvalued.

KAM Advisors and/or clients are: long AAPL, SCSS, STMP, ULTA

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Jobs Data Continues To Surpass Consensus

The markets are lower in early trading, despite the better than expected payrolls report that was released before the open. The main weakness this morning likely remains concerns in Europe that are helping drive the euro lower again today. And I don't need to mention the contuining correlation between stocks and the euro.

The December nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy added 200,000 jobs, which is well above the 150,000 estimate. Private payrolls also grew more than expected (212k). Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.5%. It was expected to rise to 8.7%.

So this is good news for the U.S. economy, although you wouldn't know it from the action in Treasuries. I would expect to see yields rising today, but instead the 10-year yield briefly rose to 2.0% but has since eased back and is now back to 1.96%. Not exactly an inspiring vote of confidence in the economy.

As we have seen all week, the Nasdaq is outperforming the S&P in early trading and bucking this morning's weakness for the most part. Among sectors, consumer discretionary (XLY) stocks are higher so far, while consumer staples (XLP) are down the most.

Asian markets were lower overnight, and China is not off to a good start to the year already. The dollar is higher, which is weighing on commodities. Oil prices are lower near $101.25. Gold prices are down to $1616. Silver prices are down also, but copper prices (JJC) are higher as of now.

As for the VIX, despite the morning selloff the volatility index is lower on the day. The VIX is currently down -1% near 21.25. This is a pretty bullish sign, as I think many traders expected volatility to pick back up once trading started in earnest in 2012.

Trading comment: The price action continues to be constructive in the major indexes. The Nazz has been outperforming nicely. And if you look at the intraday action in the SPX this week, you can see that most of the days showed weakness in the morning but the market picked up steam and closed flat to up those days. This means investors have been buying the weakness and in most cases augurs well for more upside ahead. Sentiment in yesterday's AAII poll showed too much bullishness, so that is one red flag. Additionally, the market is overbought once again. So I wouldn't load the boat here, but I have to give the market credit for the positive price action.

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