I am out of the office today for meetings. Please check back on Monday for my next update.
Thanks, and have a good weekend--
Thanks, and have a good weekend--
Friday, October 5, 2012
Thursday, October 4, 2012
ECB Holds Rates Steady
8:18 AM
No comments
Markets in the US are higher in early trading. There is not much in the way of market moving news. Most media outlets will likely attribute this morning's strength to Romney doing well in last night's presidential debate and picking up some points in the polls. But that is somewhat iffy considering many people have been saying the recent rally has been about the prospects for an Obama reelection.
Asian markets were higher overnight. Chinese markets remained closed for the Golden Week holiday. Japan was higher and Hong Kong was up slightly.
In Europe, markets are a little choppy after the ECB held rates steady at 0.75%. the Bank of England also left rates unchanged as well as its asset purchase program. There are some reports saying that the next tranche of Greek aid would be delayed. In Spain, an auction of short-term debt generally went well and was received with solid demand.
In the US, factory orders showed a decrease of -5.2% in August, which was slightly better than expected.
In corporate news, more disappointing guidance from HPQ has that stock under pressure again. NUVA is also down a lot today after lowering guidance. HMSY is getting hit today also.
The dollar is lower today, which is helping commodities. Oil prices are bouncing to $8930. Gold prices are also rallying near the $1792 level. Silver and copper prices are higher as well.
The 10-year yield is up slightly to 1.63%. And the VIX is down 1% to 15.27.
Trading comment: Lately we have seen that early morning rallies have faded by the end of the day. We could be setting up for that again today after the markets spiked higher at today's open but have faded a bit since. Yesterday the SPX once again held that 20-day average that it had been hugging lately. This morning's high of 1463 is only 2 points below the closing high for the year of 1465. I still expect to see some further sideways consolidation action before another breakout to new highs, but I could be wrong. It seems that most of the surprises for the market this year have been on the upside, which continues to cause waves of performance chasing.
Asian markets were higher overnight. Chinese markets remained closed for the Golden Week holiday. Japan was higher and Hong Kong was up slightly.
In Europe, markets are a little choppy after the ECB held rates steady at 0.75%. the Bank of England also left rates unchanged as well as its asset purchase program. There are some reports saying that the next tranche of Greek aid would be delayed. In Spain, an auction of short-term debt generally went well and was received with solid demand.
In the US, factory orders showed a decrease of -5.2% in August, which was slightly better than expected.
In corporate news, more disappointing guidance from HPQ has that stock under pressure again. NUVA is also down a lot today after lowering guidance. HMSY is getting hit today also.
The dollar is lower today, which is helping commodities. Oil prices are bouncing to $8930. Gold prices are also rallying near the $1792 level. Silver and copper prices are higher as well.
The 10-year yield is up slightly to 1.63%. And the VIX is down 1% to 15.27.
Trading comment: Lately we have seen that early morning rallies have faded by the end of the day. We could be setting up for that again today after the markets spiked higher at today's open but have faded a bit since. Yesterday the SPX once again held that 20-day average that it had been hugging lately. This morning's high of 1463 is only 2 points below the closing high for the year of 1465. I still expect to see some further sideways consolidation action before another breakout to new highs, but I could be wrong. It seems that most of the surprises for the market this year have been on the upside, which continues to cause waves of performance chasing.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
European Services Sectors Still Sluggish
8:42 AM
No comments
The market is a bit higher in early trading after a couple of better than expected economic reports. The ADP Employment report showed the private sector added 162,000 payrolls in September, which was above the 133k expected increase. Separately, the ISM Services index for September rose to 55.1 from 53.7 last month.
But the service sector readings in Europe (and China) were not quite as strong as here in the US. In Europe France, Germany, Spain and the UK all saw worse than expected service PMI readings. Italy was above expectations, but at 44.5 it is still a weak reading pointing to contraction. The overall Eurozone Services PMI was a low 46.1. Europe's markets are flattish as Spain's PM continues to deny requests for a bailout.
In Asia, markets were mixed after China's services PMI fell to a 7-month low of 53.7 (from 56.3 previously). China's markets remain closed for the holiday.
In earnings news, FDO is trading higher on an in-line earnings report, while MON is trading lower after reducing forward guidance.
Oil prices have been plummeting this morning. Last quote I saw was $88.88. The upside would be if this helped to bring down gas prices and boost consumer sentiment, but I'm sure you've noticed prices at the pump seem to go up a lot faster than they come down. Go figure.
Gold prices are up a touch to $1780.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 has been trading in a fairly tight range for the last 6 days. If you pull up a chart of the SPX, you'll see that it has basically been straddling its 20-day moving average, which is sloping higher. So if it breaks from this pattern and closes below its recent range that would leave the door open to a test of the 50-day average which we haven't seen in awhile. The 50-day average currently resides near the 1418 level. I would be surprised to see the market continue to power higher without a little bit more of a pause. I understand that lots of folks are hoping for more of a pullback to put money to work, but the market hasn't tested its 50-day average since late July.
But the service sector readings in Europe (and China) were not quite as strong as here in the US. In Europe France, Germany, Spain and the UK all saw worse than expected service PMI readings. Italy was above expectations, but at 44.5 it is still a weak reading pointing to contraction. The overall Eurozone Services PMI was a low 46.1. Europe's markets are flattish as Spain's PM continues to deny requests for a bailout.
In Asia, markets were mixed after China's services PMI fell to a 7-month low of 53.7 (from 56.3 previously). China's markets remain closed for the holiday.
In earnings news, FDO is trading higher on an in-line earnings report, while MON is trading lower after reducing forward guidance.
Oil prices have been plummeting this morning. Last quote I saw was $88.88. The upside would be if this helped to bring down gas prices and boost consumer sentiment, but I'm sure you've noticed prices at the pump seem to go up a lot faster than they come down. Go figure.
Gold prices are up a touch to $1780.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 has been trading in a fairly tight range for the last 6 days. If you pull up a chart of the SPX, you'll see that it has basically been straddling its 20-day moving average, which is sloping higher. So if it breaks from this pattern and closes below its recent range that would leave the door open to a test of the 50-day average which we haven't seen in awhile. The 50-day average currently resides near the 1418 level. I would be surprised to see the market continue to power higher without a little bit more of a pause. I understand that lots of folks are hoping for more of a pullback to put money to work, but the market hasn't tested its 50-day average since late July.
Back of the Envelope Marketing Budgets
7:23 AM
No comments
Here is a simple and I think helpful budgeting rule-of-thumb that a CMO at a $5b software vendor shared with me yesterday:
1) 75% of your budget should be in support of revenue-generation for your current operating year.
2) 15% of your budget should be placed towards efforts that have a 2-3 year time horizon.
3) 10% of your budget should be for activity or initiatives with no time horizon,
-- Rich Vancil
1) 75% of your budget should be in support of revenue-generation for your current operating year.
2) 15% of your budget should be placed towards efforts that have a 2-3 year time horizon.
3) 10% of your budget should be for activity or initiatives with no time horizon,
-- Rich Vancil
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Is The Stock Market Tiring?
8:13 AM
No comments
The market was higher in early trading, but it has been fading after the first hour.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with big markets like Hong Kong and China closed for the Golden Week holiday. In Australia, the Reserve Bank cut its key interest rate 25 basis points to 3.25%. The central bank attributed the move to a softening in the global economy and slowing growth in China. Australia's rates haven't been this low since 2009.
In Europe, markets are slightly higher as reports continue to suggest that Spain is close to asking for a bailout. While the markets may cheer this in the short-term, it will likely carry some sort of fiscal austerity measures that will ensure slower growth in the future.
Elsewhere in Germany, Speigel continues to say that the ECB bond buying program may be illegal.
The dollar is lower again today, but it doesn't seem to be helping commodities. Oil prices are down a bit near $92.20 and gold prices are also lower to $1778.
The 10-year yield is flattish near 1.61%. And the VIX is -1% to 16.10 after spiking above its 50-day average yesterday.
Trading commment: Yesterday morning I cautioned that I don't often trust a market that is too strong too early, as it leaves too much time in the day for selling and disappointing action. That is exactly how things played out. The SPX had been up as much as 17 points before closing up only 4 points. Today, the SPX was up 7 points earlier but as of this post it is back to flat on the day. I would much prefer to see a market that is flat or slightly weak in early trading but builds strength into the close. The type of action we are seeing looks like stalling and could signal that the recent multi-month rally is tiring and could be due for more of a pause. We haven't seen a down month since May. And soon we will be back into earnings season. Food for thought.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with big markets like Hong Kong and China closed for the Golden Week holiday. In Australia, the Reserve Bank cut its key interest rate 25 basis points to 3.25%. The central bank attributed the move to a softening in the global economy and slowing growth in China. Australia's rates haven't been this low since 2009.
In Europe, markets are slightly higher as reports continue to suggest that Spain is close to asking for a bailout. While the markets may cheer this in the short-term, it will likely carry some sort of fiscal austerity measures that will ensure slower growth in the future.
Elsewhere in Germany, Speigel continues to say that the ECB bond buying program may be illegal.
The dollar is lower again today, but it doesn't seem to be helping commodities. Oil prices are down a bit near $92.20 and gold prices are also lower to $1778.
The 10-year yield is flattish near 1.61%. And the VIX is -1% to 16.10 after spiking above its 50-day average yesterday.
Trading commment: Yesterday morning I cautioned that I don't often trust a market that is too strong too early, as it leaves too much time in the day for selling and disappointing action. That is exactly how things played out. The SPX had been up as much as 17 points before closing up only 4 points. Today, the SPX was up 7 points earlier but as of this post it is back to flat on the day. I would much prefer to see a market that is flat or slightly weak in early trading but builds strength into the close. The type of action we are seeing looks like stalling and could signal that the recent multi-month rally is tiring and could be due for more of a pause. We haven't seen a down month since May. And soon we will be back into earnings season. Food for thought.
Monday, October 1, 2012
How bright is the silver lining of Salesforce.com's Marketing Cloud?
1:15 PM
B2B Marketing, CRM, Digital Marketing, Eloqua, Gerry Murray, marketing and sales alignment, Marketing Automation, Neolane, Pardot, social marketing, tech marketing
No comments
At their annual Dreamforce shindig last week Salesforce.com announced the formalization of their marketing capabilities as the Marketing Cloud. Essentially it is a coupling of four key pillars of Salesforce.com's front end:
- Customer intelligence: Data.com enriches contact and account information with fresh feeds from sources such as LinkedIn and many others. Enables both sales and marketing to create detailed contact profiles for segmentation, targeting and campaign management.
- Social advertising and content management: The recent Buddy Media acquisition provides support for a wide range of social channels (social, web, mobile) and formats including contests, videos, and photos. Users can coordinate their publishing and advertising activity and measure impact throughout the social sphere.
- Social listening and analytical tools: Radian 6 monitors popular social services such as Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, as well as blogs, forums, communities and more. Supports 17 languages and mobile access.
- Core CRM functionality: Salesforce.com consolidates resources to provide sales reps with a single source that can connect them with other applications, contacts, colleagues and workflows. Pulls data together into account/opportunity context. Delivers reporting data to sales and sales managers and can provide opportunity and pipeline performance data into other systems such as marketing and order management.
Salesforce.com is taking its "Social Business" mantra to heart by building its marketing functionality with a "social first" philosophy. The question is: will this be enough to satisfy Salesforce.com customers (and the company itself)? The answer is probably not. The functionality you won't find in Marketing Cloud is significant - the core campaign management tools, workflows, analytics and more offered by marketing automation vendors (e.g. Eloqua, Marketo, Neolane, Pardot, etc.) Even though there are fewer seats to be sold to marketers as opposed to sales, these two worlds are rapidly converging. The systems needed to automate them will need to do likewise, as evidenced by the tight integration of most marketing automation systems with Salesforce.com and the recent announcement of Chatter for Eloqua.
But Marketing Cloud is undoubtedly only the first step, in fact it's well beyond the first step for Salesforce.com and the only issue going forward is how do they continue to expand functionality in this area? The build or buy equation for Salesforce.com currently favors the build approach as valuations for marketing automation vendors are sky high, at least in terms of an acquisition. Salesforce.com has plenty of time to creep into the marketing automation arena, establish itself as a more serious threat and then re-evaluate its strategic decision around marketing functionality.
In the meantime, marketing automation vendors have their work cut out for them. They must stay well ahead of where Salesforce.com's Marketing Cloud may go. They must continue to grow rapidly, prove their staying power and market value. Customers, however, should have no illusions that Marketing Cloud is an enterprise marketing automation platform in its current state. There is much more to marketing than social engagement especially for B2B models. Waiting for Marketing Cloud to evolve or for social to mature is simply not a choice, there is way too high a price to be paid in terms of market share, growth, and profitability. So if you're considering marketing automation don't delay or change course because of Marketing Cloud. Charge ahead full steam and should the social engagement of Marketing Cloud pop your ROI, by all means add it to your arsenal.
Monday Morning Musings
8:16 AM
No comments
I was out of the office for the last couple of days last week but I'm back in the saddle today and liking the action. Readers know that the one thing I always caution about is a market that opens too strong too early. That sets the market up for selling later in the day and a disappointing close. So we will have to watch to see if today's early strength can last into the close. Still a lot of time left on the clock.
If you looked at the futures early this am it didn't look like we would have such a strong open. Overnight action in Asian was mixed. Many markets were closed for the Golden Week holiday. The China manufacturing PMI index climbed to 49.8, but even that figure remains below the 50 line that marks the difference between expansion and contraction. This is the second straight reading that marks contraction, something that hasn't happened since 2009. Chinese banks are closed all week for the holiday. (can you imaging that in the US?)
Sentiment improved after Europe opened and released a string of better than expected manufacturing PMI readings. PMI readings from France, Germany, Spain, and Italy all came in higher than expectations. But while that gave a short-term boost to the markets, the readings remain below the 50 level we mentioned that marks continued economic contraction. Also, the Eurozone unemployment reading ticked higher to a record 11.4%.
In the US, our ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 from 49.6 in August. So our manuf sector looks a little better in the sense that it has moved back above the 50 level. This also helped give stocks a boost in early trading, pushing the Dow up nearly 150 points to start the new month.
In corporate news, 3M (MMM) will buy Ceradyne (CRDN) for a 43% premium to Friday's close.
The dollar is lower today, which is helping commodities. Oil prices are higher to $93. Gold prices are up near $1785, and silver and copper prices are higher as well.
The 10-year yield is getting a boost on the ISM data, with yields up slightly to 1.64%. Still below the 50-day average.
The volatility index (VIX) is only slightly lower near 15.67 currently.
Trading comment: Stocks ended the last day of the quarter on a weak note, but are bouncing back today on the first day of October. Some of today's strength could be from fund flows at the start of the month, a phenomenon that occurs far too often to be considered random. Financials are outperforming in early trading while defensive utilities are lagging. Tech stocks are also trailing the broader market. But these overall sector rotations have been healthy for the market and have kept the stair-step higher pattern intact.
If you looked at the futures early this am it didn't look like we would have such a strong open. Overnight action in Asian was mixed. Many markets were closed for the Golden Week holiday. The China manufacturing PMI index climbed to 49.8, but even that figure remains below the 50 line that marks the difference between expansion and contraction. This is the second straight reading that marks contraction, something that hasn't happened since 2009. Chinese banks are closed all week for the holiday. (can you imaging that in the US?)
Sentiment improved after Europe opened and released a string of better than expected manufacturing PMI readings. PMI readings from France, Germany, Spain, and Italy all came in higher than expectations. But while that gave a short-term boost to the markets, the readings remain below the 50 level we mentioned that marks continued economic contraction. Also, the Eurozone unemployment reading ticked higher to a record 11.4%.
In the US, our ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 from 49.6 in August. So our manuf sector looks a little better in the sense that it has moved back above the 50 level. This also helped give stocks a boost in early trading, pushing the Dow up nearly 150 points to start the new month.
In corporate news, 3M (MMM) will buy Ceradyne (CRDN) for a 43% premium to Friday's close.
The dollar is lower today, which is helping commodities. Oil prices are higher to $93. Gold prices are up near $1785, and silver and copper prices are higher as well.
The 10-year yield is getting a boost on the ISM data, with yields up slightly to 1.64%. Still below the 50-day average.
The volatility index (VIX) is only slightly lower near 15.67 currently.
Trading comment: Stocks ended the last day of the quarter on a weak note, but are bouncing back today on the first day of October. Some of today's strength could be from fund flows at the start of the month, a phenomenon that occurs far too often to be considered random. Financials are outperforming in early trading while defensive utilities are lagging. Tech stocks are also trailing the broader market. But these overall sector rotations have been healthy for the market and have kept the stair-step higher pattern intact.
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