The European See-Saw

The market has been up recently on hopes that EU officials are getting their act together to move in a cohesive way and tackle the sovereign debt issues. Now we are getting some news blurbs that officials are having difficulty holding discussions on the EFSF and that there will be no decision on leveraging the fund this weekend.

The disappointment out of Europe seems to be trumping the positive economic reports from this morning like the big improvement in the Philly Fed Index to 8.7 from -17.5 last month. That's a big improvement, and will embolden calls that we are not going to experience a recession. I still think the odds are 50/50.

In earnings news, a few disappointing reactions in the likes of AXP, EBAY, and WYNN. On the positive side, see RVBD and PM.

The dollar is roughly flat today, but most commodities are lower. Oil prices have pulled back to $85.60, and gold prices are lower near $1617. Copper prices are plunging today as well.

The 10-year yield is hovering near 2.14%, and has been steadier in recent days than it has been in weeks. As for the VIX, it continues to climb and is now +6% higher back to 36.43. It is just above its 50-day overhead resistance, so this is an interesting juncture to watch.

Trading comment: The SPX is still holding above the 1200 level, which is short-term support (1190-1200). Bulls are hoping that we can continue to build a base around these levels before a successful push through SPX 1230. A break of SPX 1190 would likely spell another trip to lower levels of the recent trading range. Tough to gauge, as the market is very news driven by each headline out of Europe. We are staying defensive and maintaining our etf hedges.

long SH, PM

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Style Strategy and Marketing Savvy Newsletter - Oct 20

Today's newsletter is all about love -- and getting more of it -- from your customers, your employees, your career and your business, itself.

"Passion persuades." 
(Anita Roddick, 1942-2007, English entrepreneur and founder of The Body Shop)

[ CLICK HERE ] to read the October 20th style, strategy and marketing savvy newsletter and get all the links, online.

In this issue:

• Little White Marketing Lie #4 "Our Customers Love Us"
• Most read on the blog: 6 Ways to keep hair color clients in the salon
• Honorable Mention: Beer me! 45-day rules to strengthen customer relationships
• Climb the ladder of success, lipstick in hand
• Secrets to success from women entrepreneurs
• 10 Measures of a strong brand
• 10 Ways to become the leader your followers will love
and last, but not least,
• It's not the metrics. Your marketing just sucks.

NEW Free Download on the resources page for you:
a full page (8.5 x 11) display and a 4-up postcard-sized version for signage you can use at the point of sale, on shelves, tables, as bag stuffers or handouts at your business to get your customers to "like" your Facebook page.



Like the little white marketing lies series? Get 5 to use in shaping your own marketing plan or educating staff for small business or for salon and spa:

[Download pdf] 5 Little White Marketing Lies for Small Business
[Download pdf] 5 Little White Marketing Lies for Salon and Spa


[ Subscribe ] to my e-mail newsletter to get the next little white marketing lie - and more - delivered right to your inbox—it's going to be a great year!



Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies [ go ]
2012 Salon and Spa Marketing Calendar [ go ]
365 Days of Marketing [ go ]
12 Months of Marketing for Salon and Spa [ go ]

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Quote of the Day - October 19

"In dreams and in love
there are no impossibilities."

(Janos Arnay)

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Earnings Reports Mostly Positive

The market is mixed in early trading, with Apple's results weighing on the Nasdaq, but the other major indexes pulling into positive territory.

AAPL dipped below the $400 level this morning, but is holding above there as of this post. The company missed EPS estimates for the first time since 2004. But they also raised guidance for next quarter, which is an equally rare occurrence for the company. And despite the weak iPhone number, gross margins were very solid.

I think for a company that has executed as flawlessly as Apple, investors should be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and see if it was just a one-quarter blip. I expect them to have a very strong fall quarter, and am not selling any of our shares at this juncture.

Other strong stock reactions to earnings reports include ISRG, INTC, and ABT to name a few. Despite a few outliers, I think the net reactions to earnings season thus far have been fairly positive and I'm interested to see how S&P profit projections hold up once we get through the rest of the reports.

Asian markets were higher overnight, and Europe is higher this morning. The tone in Europe is improved despite Moody's downgrading Spain's debt rating. This wasn't a big surprise, but it is interesting to see that CDS spreads in Europe are improved today.

The dollar is flattish today, and commodities are mixed. Oil prices are higher again to $89.40 and gold prices are up slightly near $1657.

The 10-year yield is higher this morning near 2.18%; and the VIX remains interesting in that it cannot get below that 30 level folks are watching. Today it is actually higher to 32.66. Those sustained elevated levels in the VIX mean that traders are still expecting more swings in the market.

Trading comment: The market recouped Friday's losses yesterday and then some. The price action certainly feels good, and the indexes have indeed held above their 50-day averages thus far. Earnings season remains a wild card for individual stocks, but those companies that report good earnings I think can be bought for more upside in Q4. The market may be overbought in the short-term, but there is still considerable bearish sentiment that has built up and could help offer support under this market.

long AAPL

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Little White Marketing Lie #5: We're Just One Great Idea Away from Success

Little white lies are falsities we tell people (and sometimes tell ourselves) that we believe to be benign, harmless. But there are little white marketing lies we tell all the time that may be hurting our businesses:

Little White Marketing Lie #5: We’re just one great idea away from overnight success.

Most of the time, 'overnight success' is achieved only after years and years of hard work and much trial and error. It’s not about one great idea. Success is usually the result of trying one more time, and one more time after that. It’s about experimenting, refining and continually improving. It’s about demanding the best of yourself, and then asking for a little bit more.

All of history is on my side on this one.

As Thomas Edison, the famous U.S. inventor famously said, “Genius is 2% inspiration and 98% perspiration.” And maybe he said it even better in his autobiography when he simply stated, “There is no substitute for hard work.” And that’s why so many people prefer to believe the myth that it will be a great idea that brings them success – after all – who wants to work hard? Who wants to fail? Repeatedly?

Edison did, and if you want to succeed, you’ll adopt his mentality. He didn't view himself as a failure, even though he failed hundreds of times while trying to invent the light bulb. He told reporters who asked him about those hundreds of failures that he’d merely succeeded in determining what didn’t work. And knowing what doesn’t work is important, too. Knowing what doesn’t work keeps you from going down the wrong roads, chasing phantoms (apparitions like the myth of “overnight success.”)

The truth is, you’re closer to success than you realize. You already had a great idea, that’s why you’re in business. The idea of your business may not be unique in and of itself, but how you do business can be.

There aren’t shortcuts and there are few serendipitous 'post-it-note' accidents that result in overnight business super-stardom. Not to mention the fact that you don’t want to go down in history as a one-hit wonder! History is replete with companies that had a great idea or business concept and started strong, but got stuck.

Take Steve Jobs, for example, who said, “Stay hungry, stay foolish,” speaking at a commencement address Year after year, project after project, Steve Job’s company and products took the market by surprise, and by storm. Without demanding and fostering an innovative and unique internal culture, it’s likely that his great ideas would have been someone else’s to capitalize on.

For most successful businesses, the secret isn’t in having a great idea. Amazon sold books, hardly innovative and there were many booksellers in the business before them. There’s nothing new about what they did. But HOW they sold books, how they fulfilled orders, the ease and convenience and value they built into doing business with them – that was their genius. Doing it right, over and over again, and doing it differently than the others.

It’s not what they do, it’s how they do it.

Lands End? Zappos? Again, there is nothing particularly innovative about selling shoes or clothes. But these businesses are genius – and consequently successful – because of the way they fulfill orders, the way they stand behind their products and the culture they provide for their employees. Believing that happy employees will translate into happy customers, they built their policies and business around this core value.

So don’t focus on trying to discover a genius offering. Instead, channel the bulk of your creative energies into perfecting the customer experience your business provides by (1) delivering on your promises to the customer, every time, and (2) making the customer experience at your business unique, different from competitors and more than the customer expects, in ways that are attractive and meaningful to your customers.

[ Subscribe ] to my e-mail newsletter to get the next little white marketing lie - and more - delivered right to your inbox—it's going to be a great year!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Monday Morning Musings

The markets are lower in early trading following last week's outsized 6% rally. That was the best weekly showing in more than two years. So it's normal to see a pullback following such strong price action. What the bulls hope for is just some quiet consolidation, without too much distribution.

Earnings season continues to heat up. This morning Citi (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) both reported earnings, with the former beating estimates but the latter coming up a little shy. WFC is down 5% on its miss, and weighing on the financial sector. Halliburton (HAL) also beat estimates, but it looks like some serious profit taking there after a nice run into its earnings report. Apple (AAPL) reports this week, and is breaking out to new all-time highs ahead of its report.

Asian markets were higher overnight, and Europe was higher this morning after a G20 meeting this weekend. Leaders were pressed to come up with some sort of resolution within a week. I'm glad to see they're getting serious, but I am a little wary that expectations may be getting ahead of themselves.

The dollar is higher this morning, while commodities are mixed. Oil prices have eased back slightly to $86.40, while gold prices are firm near $1686.

The 10-year is lower today at 2.18%; and the VIX has really spiked higher already this morning, up nearly 13% back to the 31.85 level. This is an interesting development after last week's drop in the VIX below the 30 level. I think it shows traders are still jittery.

Trading comment: This is a tough juncture to consider new long positions right here. First you have the big rally from last week that will likely see some consolidation at the least, as well as profit taking. You also have earnings reports to deal with. And the action in WFC and HAL show the action following earnings reports can be unpredictable. That said, I expect AAPL to have a positive reaction to what I think will be very strong earnings again.

long AAPL, HAL, WFC

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Financials Lag Early Rally

The markets are higher again in early trading on the heels of improved sentiment in Europe and a blowout earnings report from Google (GOOG).

Treasury Secretary Geithner made a lot of comments about Europe and tried to instill some confidence. He said they will continue to pressure Euro leaders to act decisively, and also said that the IMF has considerable resources that have yet to be deployed. That hints at his relationship with Christine Lagard, who is in Geithner's camp that more needs to be done.

The positive action in Europe this morning bucked the weakness in Asian markets overnight, and also ignored the downgrade of Spanish debt by Fitch.

In the U.S., stocks are rallying following Europe strength and the strong results from GOOG. Additionally, the retail sales report from September came in stronger-than-expected at +1.1%.

The financials are the biggest laggards this morning after Fitch placed several large financials on its Negative Watch list.

The dollar is weaker so far as the euro bounces, which is boosting commodities. Oil prices are higher to $86.40, while gold prices are trying to lift above $1675.

The 10-year yield continues to bounce, now back to 2.25%. And lo and behold but the VIX has finally broken below that psychological 30 level, although just barely. It is currently trading near 29.80 after getting as low as 28.25 after the open.

Trading comment: The price action has been solid all week, but the leadership in the market is lagging. I just don't see a lot of quality growth stocks breaking out. So I have yet to get a lot more bullish, and at this point am still in the camp that this is an oversold market rally that is normal after seeing investor sentiment reach extreme bearish levels. I could be wrong, but it would take continued constructive action in the market combined with some real tangible solutions out of Europe that I have yet to see. At this point there is a lot more talk than action going on across the pond.

long GOOG, SKF

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