Market Overbought And At Resistance

The market is lower in early trading after a very nice rally. People often like to look at how much the market bounced from its recent lows. The SPX traded down to 1075 last week and bounced as high as 1220. That makes for a solid 13% bounce. Although if you were good enough to buy those lows and sold the highs yesterday, I have a job for you at our shop.

Bulls were hoping for some good news from JPM this morning, and they were able to top consensus estimates. But the cautious tone from management is not helping the stock, which is currently -5% lower and weighing on the financial sector which is the biggest laggard this morning.

Tech is bucking the weakness and the NDX is just barely positive as of this post. Google (GOOG) shares are higher going into tonight's earnings report. I'm sure GOOG will be able to post a little upside, but the stock reaction will be any ones guess. Also, GOOG management sometimes spends money on non-core things, so we will have to see how tight they were with their expenses. That's one thing that bothers me a bit about their management.

Asian markets were higher overnight, but Europe is down this morning. The euro is also lower while the dollar is higher. That is weighing on the commodity index. Oil prices have fallen back to $84, while gold prices are also lower around $1661.

The 10-year yield got a big bounce yesterday, but is giving some back today trading near 2.15%. As for the VIX, it almost got below the 30 level yesterday, but then bounced higher and is currently up +4% today to 32.54.

Trading comment: After being up big the last 6 out of 7 days, the market is short-term overbought and in need of at least some consolidation. Also, the major indexes have run into their former resistance levels near SPX 1220 and Nazz 2600. For the bulls, two things need to occur from here. The indexes need to hold above their 50-day averages, and these major support levels need to be broken. That could signal more upside is possible. But don't forget the list of stocks breaking out is not exactly bountiful. It is mostly utilities and defensive type stocks, not your typical quality growth names. So take the constructive action with a grain of salt, imo.

long GOOG, JPM

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Little White Marketing Lie #4: Our Customers Love Us

Little white lies are falsities we tell people (and sometimes tell ourselves) that we believe to be benign, harmless. But there are little white marketing lies we tell all the time that may be hurting our businesses:

Little white marketing lie #4: “Our customers love us.”

Don’t fall for this one, it’s especially dangerous. When you begin to believe that your customers need, want and love your business more than your business needs, wants and shows that they love your customers, you’re in trouble. You’re just a hop, skip and a jump from complacency, neglect or even the condescending disdain that will reveal just how fragile that customer relationship was.

By nearly every measure, you can’t support the claim that your customers love you. To understand why, you have to know what characterizes true love:

Love is unselfish and patient. It is slow to take offense and overlooks shortcomings. Love puts the interests of the object of its love ahead of its own interests. Those who love are almost unconditionally faithful to the object of their affection.

If this describes your customers, I want to know where you live and I want to know how I can get me some!

The truth is, customers are self-centered. They are in the relationship for what they are getting out of it. (And why shouldn’t they be?) They are likely to take offense and notice shortcomings. If their interests change, they will go elsewhere. And they are fickle. Most are more than open to the possibility of being wooed by another offer and many welcome any opportunity to experience something new. (Don't take my word for it, ask the good people in the quiet offices over at MySpace.) It’s as if they’re sitting the proverbial bar, made up and looking hot, just waiting for someone to buy them a drink.

There is a way to get customer love, but it’s going to cost you.
Why? Your customers are never going to put more into the relationship than you do.

Imagine a still pool of water providing a reflection. The reflection on the water may be a fair image of the original, but the original is still by far the strongest, clearest side. Like it or not, the “love” bestowed on your business by your patrons is a direct reflection of your dedication to, engagement with, and interest in, them. The love you show for the customer is the original, their response is the reflection. Just as with the clear pool of water, the reflection is never going to be stronger than the original!

You’ll never get more than you invest and your customers will never love you more than you truly love them (at least not for long).

Just as in other relationships, there are some ways to gain and nurture mutual affection:

• Remember the fickle nature of the customer’s love and stay on top of your game.
• Deliver great customer experiences, every time.
• Be intriguing, engaging and provocative.
• Keep your eyes and ears open for signs of discontent.
• Communicate, proactively. Solicit feedback.
• Listen. No, I mean really listen.
• Respond to customer’s complaints, wants and needs.
• Be open to change. Ask how you can change. When your customer tells you you need to change, by all means, change!
• Get help from professionals when you need it.

And maybe most importantly: establish emotional connections – give people reasons to love you.
Tell the story of your business. Tell people why you’re passionate about ‘what you do.’ Talk about your family history and other connections to the community. Tell customers about the good that your business does in the lives of community members and employees. Educate the public about the ways in which your business benefits the local economy, local charities, schools, the arts and other organizations. Align yourself with a local cause and give back.

It’s never about you, it’s always about them (your customers). Don’t fall for the lie that your customers love you, or that they need you even nearly as much as you need them. Instead, stay focused on providing benefits and value to your customers, and focus your marketing on telling customers about how doing business with you makes their lives better.

White Papers: Get the Little White Marketing Lies for Small Business [ GET PDF ] or
the Little White Marketing Lies for Salon and Spa [ GET PDF ].

They're here! Get the 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar: Little White Marketing Lies - available now on my website and next week on amazon.com or purchase the 2012 Salon and Spa Marketing Calendar from my site or amazon.com. List price for either is $16.95, and both are available for bulk purchase by distributors, resellers and others. [ Contact Elizabeth Kraus ] for more information.

[ Subscribe ] to my e-mail newsletter to get the next little white marketing lie - and more - delivered right to your inbox—it's going to be a great year!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Earnings Season Starts On A Positive Note

The markets are higher again in early trading. If the market closes positive today, it would be the 6th day of gains in the last 7 sessions. For its part, the S&P 500 is running into resistance levels around the 1220 area that have halted the last few rallies.

Asia was mixed overnight, with some floods in Thailand that closed factories. But China was able to bounce +3.1%. Europe is higher this morning on optimism that Slovakia will pass the EFSF plan after it was voted down yesterday.

The euro is also getting a bounce on the news, pressuring the dollar. Commodities are higher across the board, led by copper (+3.5%). Gold prices are rallying back to $1680, while oil prices are roughly flat near $85.75.

In earnings news, although Alcoa (AA) reported a miss its stock is only down slightly. But Pepsico (PEP) and Infosys (INFY) both reported solid results and their stocks are up nicely. INFY's earnings is also boosting one of our holdings that I like best in the space, Cognizant Tech (CTSH). From this point, earnings season will continue to heat up, but at least its getting off to a solid start.

The 10-year yield is also getting a nice lift higher as recession fears are moving to the back burner, at least for the time being. Today the yield is all the way back to 2.21%.

As for the VIX, it is down -7.7% currently and knocking on the door - or I should say the floor - of that 30 level that I have been talking about. A break below this level would be a good sign for the bulls.

Trading comment: With the market rallying 6 of the last 7 days, we are no longer oversold and are short-term overbought. So I don't want to chase anything here, and I think it is likely we will see some consolidation in the near-term. The key for the major indexes will be that they hold their 50-day averages on any pullback. Those 50-day averages have been acting as resistance for the last few months, and if we can convert that resistance into support it would be another bullish sign for the market.

long CTSH

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CMO's report universal lack of preparedness for key challenges

IBM released the findings of their Global CMO study yesterday and one of the primary conclusions is that CMOs feel unprepared to address key challenges. The most surprising thing is how consistent the feeling is across regions and vertical industries. CMOs generally face the same issues and report very similar levels of "unpreparedness" in the face of them. Top challenges include: data explosion, social media, growth of channel and device choices, and shifting consumer demographics, among others.

The findings are based on 1,734 structured in-person interviews with CMOs in large organizations conducted between February and June of 2011.Regional and vertical representation was reasonably well balanced. The sheer scale of the effort and the willingness of so many CMOs to participate indicate a role under siege.

In our research, IDC has learned that marketing is undergoing fundamental and painful transformations on several levels: new and expanding datasets, new channels and forms of communication, new tools and infrastructure requirements, new dynamic in customer acquisition, new pressure to prove business impact, new skills required for success. It is a multi-dimensional change that has many marketing leaders struggling to keep up.

The IBM study provides a strong basis for CMOs to educate their C-level peers on the challenges they face. However, by design, it does not offer practical models for addressing the issues. IDC has strong evidence that the customer data record is the fundamental design principle around which all customer facing activities and systems should be (re-)built. The customer record is increasingly the source for strategic insight, tactical planning, and performance metrics. Any marketer working in an organization without an enterprise customer creation process (with the requisite standards for customer records, data governance, and the infrastructure to support it) is set up for failure.

Unfortunately hardly any companies today manage customer creation as an enterprise process. We believe that this is the root of the universal "unpreparedness" revealed in the IBM Global CMO study. Having a practical model for implementing an enterprise customer creation process is the first step toward mastering all the key challenges CMOs and their marketing organizations are facing today.

ENTERPRISE customer creation is not something that only happens in marketing and/or sales. It encompasses every customer touch point over the lifetime of the relationship. It goes beyond the jurisdiction of any departmental leader and therefore must have C-level (CEO) endorsement and active support. It is the demand side equivalent of supply chain automation and we all know how WalMart conquered the world by mastering that side of the economic coin. On the demand side, the challenge is finding and forming relationships with prospective customers much earlier using channels and resources not traditionally thought of as marketing (or sales.) In addition the relationship needs to be tracked consistently from marketing to sales to finance, provisioning/fulfillment, support, etc - i.e. the customer data record must be uniformly defined and managed across departments. All the information associated with a customer record must be available to everyone involved in the process. It is a massive undertaking on par with the supply chain automation effort, but the reward is being months ahead of your competitors in terms of customer contact and relationship building – a key competitive advantage that will be very hard to displace.

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Now available: the 2012 Marketing Calendar for small business: "Little White Marketing Lies"

12 little white marketing lies, yours to disprove in 2012! The 2012 Small Business Marketing Calendar "Little White Marketing Lies" is now available for purchase on my site and should be live on amazon.com next week.

In it, you'll find a collection of 12 little white marketing lies including common business owner's claims such as, "we provide exceptional customer service" and (as pictured on the cover) "our customers love us"— yours to dispel in 2012 plus hundreds of marketing ideas you can use to build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients.

Use this calendar to plan and keep your marketing initiatives on track, all year long. Use the hundreds of marketing ideas and tactics to attract, engage and retain clients, develop customer and employee loyalty and stimulate sales and referrals.

In addition to the ideas, also you'll find visual helpers in each calendar month that are there as a go-by for when you need to do certain tasks - everything is laid out for you!


[ Subscribe ] to my e-mail newsletter to catch next Monday's newsletter. It's going to be a great year!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Says Who?

Having met Nicky Kinnaird many years ago, I know her to be a very smart woman building a terrific business founded on deep personal beliefs and thus I'm willing to accept the statement as true.

But I was a bit bemused to see this in the window of a Space NK store. Does the attribution make it more credible? The stores are the physical incarnation of her philosophy - so those who know what NK stands for will not need to be convinced while others will wonder who Nicky Kinnaird is.

It seems to me to be a form of celebrity endorsement in the eyes of her marketers, but does it weaken the advice? After all, she's not Japanese. Wouldn't modest anonymity be more in line with the slow organic growth of the business? Or does it just jar with me because I'm someone who knows the story rather than a potential customer?

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Bond Yields Lift From Very Low Levels

The market opened under a bit of profit taking this morning, but has reversed its early losses and is trading higher for the time being.

Asian markets joined the party and rallied overnight, led by Hong Kong. Interestingly, China lagged again and was only able to muster a 0.1% gain. Europe is lower this morning after a decision by the Troika to give Greece its next tranche of aid. Investors in the region feel that this will do little fix the longer-term problems of the country. As for news, we are waiting to here if the EFSF is ratified in Slovakia which is voting on it now.

Our financial sector is awaiting details from the Volker Rule, which is currently under a comment period. Banks stocks are mostly higher today, although tech stocks are leading the early action.

The dollar is getting a little bounce this morning, while most commodities are lower. Oil prices are down near $85.10, and gold prices are slightly lower to $1667.

The VIX isn't falling today, and is hovering near the 33.25 level. Yesterday it broke below its 50-day average for the first time in months, which is a good sign. But I would have thought if traders really think the market has more upside in store that it would have moved even lower. I would like to see it get below the 30 level to signal an expected decrease in all of this volatility that we have seen.

As for the 10-year yield, the bond market was closed yesterday but yields are on the rise today. You can see below that the yield on the 10-yr. is breaking above its 50-day average. While higher bond yields are not theoretically good for the market, I like to see the 10-yr lift a little from its recent depressing levels simply to signify that the economy isn't about to fall off a cliff.

Trading comment: We sold some of our trading index shorts yesterday as the market appeared to break out of its slump. Investor sentiment has become extremely bearish, with many of the indicators we follow at levels not seen since 2008. Even though I don't think we have seen the ultimate lows in the market for this cycle, I am aware of the fact that there can be interim trading rallies along the way. If we don't get hit with further unexpected bad news out of Europe, and no big earnings disappointments, I could see this market continue to lift a little higher while some of the recent bearish sentiment gets unwound. Stick and move, baby.

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