Is Europe Considering "Le-TARP"?

The markets started out down a bit, but have since rallied back into positive territory. Yesterday's late day rally was quite impressive, and if the bulls can hold the line here, we could see additional short-covering add to those gains.

Although Asian markets were mixed overnight, Europe has rallied strongly this morning. The improved tone in Europe comes amid chatter that officials are considering ways to recapitalize the banks in the region. Le-TARP, anyone?

Last night, Moody's downgraded the debt rating for Italy, but it appears that this move was already baked in the cake.

In economic news, this morning's ADP Employment report showed that private payrolls increased by 91,000 in September, far better than the 45,000 consensus estimate. Also, the ISM Services index for September came in at 53.0, which is just slightly below August's reading of 53.3. The reading above 50 still represents expansion for the sector.

Commodities are mostly higher today, except for precious metals. Oil has rallied back to $78.50, while gold prices are just slightly down near $1614.

The 10-year yield is getting a boost to 1.88%; and the VIX has continued to mover lower after a dramatic reversal yesterday. The VIX is down another -4% today to 39.20, which is still a very high level but not as dramatic as the 45-46 readings experienced yesterday.

Trading comment: Yesterday we took profits on some of our index etf hedges, but we have not gone so far as to add to our long positions as of yet. I would like to see the market hold some support levels and prove that yesterday wasn't just a one-day wonder. The market remains heavily oversold, with recent bearish sentiment indicators at extreme levels. This does provide a good setup for a continuation rally, but sentiment readings are secondary indicators. We need to see strong price/volume action as our primary indicator.

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This week's style, strategy and marketing savvy newsletter - October 3

This week's style, strategy and marketing savvy newsletter has some great links, from original content to more strategies to make your business more successful and more profitable.

Get all the links online at www.12monthsofmarketing.net/oct3.html

In this edition:
The little white lie that's hurting your business (Original Content)

plus more success strategies:
- 9 Facebook marketing strategies to build super-fans
- The 6 most important online marketing measures
- How your employees might misinterpret your brand
- Make more money by making employees happier
- What health care reform means for small businesses in 2012
- Beautiful business spots in a down economy

Plus - now available - the 2012 Salon and Spa Marketing Calendar
[Buy] or read the PDF overview online [here].


[ Subscribe ] to my e-mail newsletter to get next week's edition
delivered right to your inbox -- it's going to be a great year!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Big news, and the brow wax that changed my life

First for the big news: The 2012 Salon and Spa Marketing Calendar is available for purchase from my webstore [ CLICK HERE ] to order today.

Here's a peek at the format - just to give you an idea:

The 2012 Salon and Spa Marketing Calendar has:

• The ideas, framework and even reminders to any salon or spa owner, manager, independent professional or distributor sales consultant build year-round marketing momentum: attract, engage and retain clients, get more referrals, sell more retail and get more employee buy-in and loyalty
• A great tool for distributor sales consultants to help launch new products and sell through retail
• Includes links to free templates and worksheets as well as more online resources
  A great gift for salon and spa owners, independent professionals and beauty school students and graduates, or,
• A great addition to distributor and beauty supply stores, for sale to beauty professionals
• Digital sample available for qualified resellers. Email request to elizabeth at beinpulse.com

Bulk pricing is also available for Cosmetology Schools, Distributors, Beauty Supply stores and other resellers, or for industry organizations that would like to purchase in order to give out copies to salon and spa professionals, beauty school grads, etc. [ Download PDF ] for more information or e-mail me in order to talk about bulk pricing.

Now -- about the brow wax that changed my life -- do you like webinars? This morning I was interviewed by Jennifer Beatty, owner of The Hair Artist Association for 30 minutes -- find out how a brow wax changed my life and get the skinny on the 2012 Salon and Spa Marketing Calendar [ CLICK HERE ]

The calendar should go live on amazon.com in about a week (subscribe to emails for updates or check back at www.12monthsofmarketing.net).


Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Groundhog Day or Turnaround Tuesday?

The market is lower again in early trading on no new news, but rather a continuation of concerns out of Europe. It feels like Groundhog Day, with each day playing out surrounding the same news event. Speculation over a Greek default remains high and eurozone officials have said that they will delay disbursement of aid to Greece.

There is no real economic or corporate news this morning to account for the amount of selling pressure we saw in the first hour. Some of it is technical selling after the SPX broke below the 1100 support level that has held since early August.

Asian markets were lower overnight, and Europe is down again today as well. Commodities are also lower, with oil prices down near $77.20 and gold prices lower to $1640.

The 10-year yield was lower in the first hour but has since bounced a tad to 1.80%. Ditto for the VIX which opened higher but has since reversed into the red to a still high 44.72.

Trading comment: Today could either be another groundhog day or it could be a 'turnaround tuesday'. The Russell 2000 was the first index to buck the selling and go green. Then the Nasdaq followed suit and turned positive. As yet, the S&P is still struggling to get out of negative territory. With the market down quite a bit in the last 4 days, we have taken partial profit on one of our index etf hedges. Sentiment is hitting extreme bearish levels, and a bounce seems likely in the near-term. While we are still positioned defensively, we like to trade around our hedges from time to time.

less long RWM

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Monday Morning Musings

The song remains the same this morning, with concerns out of Europe weighing on our markets and volatility remaining elevated near extreme levels.

Overnight, China surprised with an improved PMI reading at 51.2 (from 50.9) for September. China's markets were closed, but the news did little to boost sentiment in Hong Kong where their market fell -4.4%.

In Europe, news that Greece does not expect to hit its deficit target has caused another wave of selling in Europe.

The flight-to-safety trade is on this morning, with gains in the usual suspects. The dollar has attracted some buying and is higher, Treasuries are higher, and gold prices are rallying as well. The gains in bonds have pushed the 10-year yield back down to 1.87%. And gold prices have topped $1657. But oil prices are lower so far, down near $77.40.

Our latest ISM reading also came in better-than-expected at 51.6 vs. 50.6 in August. That helped spark some buying and reversed the early losses in the market and pushed stocks into positive territory.

The VIX remains extremely elevated near the 42.0 level.

Trading comment: Investors are happy to put Q3 behind them. Now hopes turn to the month of October which has been know to accompany more than a few market bottoms in history. The graph below shows how again this morning the SPX came down to test the 1120 level. That level has market support since early August, but as you can see we are now testing that support for roughly the fourth time. My worry is that these levels can only hold a few times and eventually will give way. The silver lining of that scenario is that could be a setup for a trading bottom as well. I would like to see the 1120 level broken but then quickly recovered. Sentiment is very bearish at this juncture, and there could be plenty of short-covering to help push the market higher.

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Occasional Partial Attention.

Last year, lots of people seemed to be blown away by the whole concept of the second screen. At this year's event, there were inaccurate murmurings that nothing new had been said. Such is the nature of media industry audiences - always looking for the radical when they should be dealing with the every day.

But 2 screen is nothing new. We rarely, if ever, focussed entirely on the TV or anything else. The new thing is that the second screen is, in fact, a screen. In the past, we all experienced multiple input sources, but the second screen back then was radio, music or print.

Media folk are excited that the second screen experience has interactive potential, but if they listened to Starling TV's CEO they'd have noted that the 90-9-1 rule abides. 90% of second screen "viewers" are viewing that second screen passively and, I would contend, casually.

Nothing's really changed. Attention has always been partial and occasional - the question that marketers have to answer is, as ever, how to be interesting and relevant so that you get that attention when the opportunity arises.

Just a thought, a fleeting one.

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Employee culture and your marketing mix

Make no mistake, your employee culture is part of your marketing and deserves the same strategic attention as does any other aspect. But don't just take my word for it:

"You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don't play together, the club won't be worth a dime." (Babe Ruth)

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