Early Look: Stocks Bounce From Key Support

If you were up early enough to see the S&P futures before the open, it looked like the market was going to open lower again. But as the open of trading drew closer, the futures began to slowly improve. In the first hour of trading, the SPX came close to testing that 1120 level again but has since climbed back into positive territory.

Industrials, which have been hit really hard this week, are leading the early action. While energy stocks continue to lag here. The Nasdaq is outperforming the S&P so far also.

There hasn't been a lot in the way of market moving news this morning. Nike (NKE) posted better than expected earnings, and MCD raised its dividend. But there haven't been any economic reports to speak of.

Two times in August the SPX came down to test the 1120 level but held there. Yesterday and today (so far) the market has held those levels again. So it will be interesting to see if the market again bounces higher from here next week (into quarter-end), or if the third time down testing these levels is going to finally give way and we see a break.

Asian markets were lower overnight, and Europe is lower this morning as well. The dollar is lower today, but not really helping commodities much. Oil prices are struggling to hold the $80 level, and gold prices have pulled back further to $1675. Silver has also gotten hammered this week, and I am buying a little for a bounce.

The 10-year yield is bouncing a bit to 1.80%; and the VIX is only down -1.6% to a still high level above 40.

Trading comment: No sense making any big moves today. The market has been down a LOT this week, so it is normal to see some short-covering ahead of the weekend. But we are in that time period where there could be big news any weekend out of Europe, so I don't think many people are going to take big positions on this Friday. More likely, investors are going to square up their exposures, and try to be as flat as possible to minimize the overnight risk. Rest up, next week promises to be another fun one.

long SH, SLV

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Basics: Build Your Electronic Marketing Toolbox

Long gone are the days when your marketing could be confined to the occasional postcard, flyer and yellow pages listing.

It's never been easier to get your marketing messages out into the public sphere; but for the same reason, it's never been more difficult to get your messages noticed.

You can't afford to believe that you don't need an electronic marketing toolbox stuffed to the gills with hard-working tools in prime condition; tools that you'll take out and put to work nearly every day.

Here are the basics plus an overview of the 4 most popular forms of social media marketing, so that you'll know where to start:

• A website. You need your own domain name and your own website. Contrary to popular myth, neither a blog site nor a Facebook page are substitutes for having your own domain name and your own website. You need to own your own electronic space, even if it's no more than a few simple but well-designed and engaging pages.
• E-mail marketing. Again, social media is not a substitute, it's an alternative. E-mail marketing is powerful; it gives your business a voice and the means to send your customers valuable information as well as compelling offers.

Confused by all the options when it comes to social media?

Take heart: in 2011, Social Media Examiner (www.socialmediaexaminer.com) published a social media marketing industry report which demonstrates the usefulness of social media for business. Findings showed that these are the 4 most popular, effective social media sites for business:

1. Facebook. Check out these stats from hubspot.com: 1 out of every 8 minutes spent online, is spent on Facebook, and 93% of US internet users are there. Especially for B2C (businesses that sell directly to consumers), your marketing plan must include a Facebook presence and strategy.
   
   A "hard sales" voice is likely to turn off your audience, big time. As you use social media tools, remember the key word: social. It's a privilege to engage with people on social media; they are, in essence, inviting you into personal areas of their lives. It's as though they've invited you into their living rooms or you've met at a party at a friend's house. They want to get to know you, but they aren't there for a sales pitch.
   
   Use Facebook to engage people who like you, share expert information, make announcements, solicit feedback and use the personality of your business to attract prospects. Use giveaways and contests to spark engagement, increase your following and viral "shares," improve business during slow hours and stimulate event RSVPs.
   
   My recommendation is that you update your business Facebook page at least once a day (twice would be better, more if you want) with things like links to your blog posts, your e-mail newsletter, useful information or changes on your website, links to online resources relative to the products or services you sell (such as manufacturer links and news), community resources and events, fun facts, trivia and other entertaining items.


2. Twitter updates are like social media posts with A.D.D. With just 140 characters per post, it's likely that most of your updates will consist of a short headline and a link to a post on your Blog, useful information on your website or to other articles and online resources that would interest your customers.
   
   Twitter won't take up a lot of time and helps to share your website, blog,
   e-mail marketing and social media posts farther and wider. And you can use contests and giveaways to help motivate people to 'retweet' your posts and to build a following.


3. LinkedIn is the tool of choice when it comes to networking with peers and professionals. It doesn't have to take up a lot of time and you can (and should) cross post from your website, e-mail newsletters and blog.
   
   Focus on building your reputation as an expert in your field, and on linking to others in your industry (customers, suppliers, educators and experts). In updates, link to your blog posts, useful information on your website, invite people to follow your Blog, Twitter or subscribe to e-mails, or post links to other interesting articles.
   
   Having an active presence on LinkedIn is especially important for those in B2B (business to business) sales because of its effectiveness in targeting your news feed to and from business owners and other professionals in your own industry. You build a network by requesting and responding to friend requests, and LinkedIn helps you out by suggesting other people you might want to connect with based on your own connections.


4. Blogging is a great way to build your reputation as an expert and to educate your customers and prospects about your business and the products or services you provide.
   
   Focus on building awareness and enhancing your expert reputation. Write about things that would be of interest to your customers and prospects who fall in your ideal target market(s). Write blog posts to give people the skinny on new products, services, trends, fads, how-to and step-by-steps, and do it all in your own voice.
   
   After you add a post to your blog, put a teaser line and link to it on your Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter status updates. Try to add interesting information to your blog at least once a week, twice is better, and a few paragraphs is plenty!

Any time you add social media tools to your toolbox, add links to your social media profiles on your website and include them in your e-mail newsletter. Make it as easy as possible for those who are interested in you and your business to learn more about you, follow your business and engage with you online. Build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients!



Subscribe to have next Monday's newsletter delivered right to your email inbox. It's free, you can opt out any time, and I probably won't bother you more than once each week!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Friday's 5 - Marketing Shorts and Sweets

Say it isn't so! If I was whining last week, I'm whimpering this week about needing more day in my days and more days in my week. We'll see if I can't sprint through today to catch up, in the meantime I have 5 great links to share with you to put a bright little happy face right at the end of your week!


[READ] 1 of every 8 minutes spent online, is spent on Facebook
Facebook dominated headlines this week, so you can't expect me to do any different. With stats from HubSpot like these, every business should be figuring out how to leverage the Facebook crowd.


[READ] Not Google+ : The world's first anti-social network
I don't watch a lot of videos online, but this one is worth it — especially if you're hankering for a Facebook-free weekend. Just think: what could you do if you joined not?


[READ] Top 5 hairy fairy tTales (even kids appreciate great hair!)
Ok, so one of these 'fairy tales' is actually a Bible story, but I'm glad they didn't leave out the men!


[READ] Most patriotic cities in the USA
Rankings achieved through such factors as volunteer rates, spending on vets, voter turnout, flag sales and (of all things) fireworks spending, Portland, Salt Lake and Kansas City round out the top 3. Find out who else made the list and check out some of the country’s most iconic landmarks.


[READ] 10 things you need to do more of, right NOW!
Do these 10 things more and right now — or right after you read this post, whichever comes first — because tomorrow might be too late. (Thank you for this one, Peter Shankman!)



Subscribe to have next Monday's newsletter delivered right to your email inbox. It's free, you can opt out any time, and I probably won't bother you more than once each week!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Mid-Day Update: Europe Hogging The Spotlight

The global selloff started last night in Asia, partially in response to the selloff here in the U.S. but some slowing economic data didn't help the situation. When Europe opened early this morning, its markets were also down sharply.

The concerns about Europe are not going away, and I get the sense that the authorities over there aren't willing to do something "big" without the cover of a major disaster. Whether its a Greek default or a major financial institution in trouble, the potential outcomes are equally unpleasant to this investor.

The market seemed as if it was hanging around to see if the Fed might pull a surprise rabbit out of the hat. When the news came out yesterday about Operation Twist, the selling picked up steam. But the buying into long-date Treasuries picked up with a vengeance. This morning, the yield on the 10-year Note has fallen to a record low of 1.77%.

Commodities are also down sharply today. Oil prices have fallen back to $81.25, while gold prices are now down near $1733. The gold etf (GLD) is sitting just below its 50-day average.

The VIX has spiked higher again this morning, up 8.5% right now to 40.50. Interestingly, if you look at the VIX chart, today's action so far looks like a 4th lower high.

Trading comment: During the recent market rally I had been writing that I didn't want to get sucked in, and that I was trimming equity exposure and adding to our index hedges. That makes me feel at least a little better on days like today, when my screen shows a sea of red. I still think we could see some buying surface as we near quarter-end, but I would continue to employ the same strategy. Any buys I may look at on the long side will have a short leash attached.

Disclosure: Jordan Kahn and/or KAM clients are long GLD, SH though positions can change at any time

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FOMC To Commence "Operation Twist" To The Tune of $400 billion

Here is the latest statement from the FOMC:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

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Key Findings From IDC's 2011 Tech Marketing Benchmarks Study

Between May 15th and July 31st, 2011, IDC's CMO Advisory Group fielded its 9th annual Tech Marketing Benchmarks Study. More than 100 tech companies representing about $850B in revenue responded, making this the CMO Advisory Group's most successful benchmarking study to date. The average revenue for companies in this data set is $9.5B, and these data include companies ranging from less than $500M to about $100B. Technology hardware, software, and services companies with both direct and indirect channel strategies are represented in the database. The following are some key findings from IDC's 2011 Tech Marketing Benchmarks Study.

Marketing investment growth in 2011 is lagging revenue growth at 3.5% and 6.5% respectively. Moreover, the 3.5% marketing investment change figure is significantly lower than tech marketer's sentiments in January of 2011, when they reported expectations of an 8% increase to marketing budgets. In past years, IDC's CMO Advisory Group has observed that marketing investment growth generally tracks revenue growth, but that trend has not re-emerged since the recession. Larger companies in particular are experiencing weak marketing investment growth. Companies with revenues between $3B and $9.9B are reporting marketing investment changes of only 2.1%, and companies with revenues greater than $10B are even less at 1.7%. Smaller companies are investing more heavily; companies with less than $500M, between $500M and $999M, and $3B to $2.9B in revenues have average marketing investment changes of 10%, 8.1%, and 7%. Services companies have the weakest marketing investment growth in 2011, however, with an average of -1%.

IDC's CMO Advisory Service tracks a series of key performance indicators that marketing executives should monitor closely in their own organizations. The following are some key observations on changes to top-line key performance indicators in 2011:

• Marketing Budget Ratios, which are calculated by dividing total marketing spend by revenue, are decreasing in 2011 because revenue growth is outpacing revenue growth.
•  IDC's Awareness-Demand Ratio, which calculates the total amount of marketing spend dedicated to awareness building activities versus demand generating activities is at 52%, which means that the focus this year has shifted to Awareness. Last year, marketers were favoring Demand.
•  Program-to-People Ratios, which show the percentage of total marketing spend that is directed towards programs, have increased year over year to 60%. The main contributor to the increase in this ratio in 2011 is the increase in Awareness generating activities such as Advertising, which are more program-spend heavy.

Digital Marketing Program spend--defined as display ads, search ads, email marketing, digital events, company web sites, search engine optimization, and social networks--continues to increase rapidly. In 2010 digital marketing accounted for 19.3% of total program spend, but in 2011 this number has risen to 26.4%. Advertising program spend, which includes display ads and search ads in addition to traditional advertising mediums, has also increased year over year. This finding is consistent with the overall increase in Awareness activities. Marketing organizations are also allocating more spend to web site content and development this year, which is now 8.2% of the total marketing program spend mix.

IDC's CMO Advisory Service has also observed changes to marketing staff allocations in 2011, see below for some highlights:

·    Web site content and development is not only a key area of program spend investment--marketing departments have also increased their staff allocations in this area to 5.6%. IDC believes that this is a positive change, since IDC's 2011 Buyer Experience Study revealed that the first place prospects turn to for information is a company's web site.

·      Marketing operations has experienced growth for a number of years, but this trend seems to be leveling off as the position matures. Marketing operations currently accounts for 5.3% of total marketing staff which is a decrease from last year's allocation. IDC does not believe that companies are actually reducing marketing operations staff; the cause of the year over year decrease is a combination of other staffing categories increasing more rapidly and an IDC taxonomy change to include a new category called marketing IT.

·       The CMO Advisory Group has been championing sales enablement for the past few years. In 2010 sales enablement accounted for 3.1% of the total staff mix, but since then this allocation has risen to 3.7%.

These are only a few of the findings uncovered by IDC's 2011 Tech Marketing Benchmarks Study. For more information, or to participate in upcoming IDC studies please contact Joseph Ferrantino at jferrantino@idc.com.

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Early Look: Tech Relative Outperformance Continues

The market was briefly higher in early trading, but has since dipped back into negative territory. Actually, the SPX is lower on the day right now, but the Nazz is still barely in positive territory.

Tech is handily outperforming today, and continuing the relative sector outperformance that we have seen of late. Materials are taking it on the chin so far this morning. The poster child for the group could be Freeport McMoran (FCX) which is down more than -5% as copper prices have plunged recently and there is chatter of slowing demand from big players like China.

In corporate news, solid earnings reports from ORCL, ADBE, and GIS have boosted all three of those stocks this morning. Also, Microsoft raised its quarterly dividend by 25%, but so far its not helping the stock.

In economic news, new home sales came in better than expected at 5.03 million units in August, which is up from last months rate of 4.67 million units. Not bad for a month like August, when it seemed like bad news was everywhere.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, but China was able to rally 2.7%. Europe's markets are down again this morning despite EU officials saying they believe progress is being made on Greece's debt.

The dollar is higher this morning, and commodities are mixed. Oil prices are higher near $87.88, while gold prices are lower to $1797.

The 10-year yield is lower again to 1.91%, and getting close to hitting new lows in yield. The VIX is bouncing higher from its 50-day average, up 4.5% to 34.38.

The Fed will make its policy statement today and there is a ton of chatter about "Operation Twist", where the Fed might sell short-dated Treasuries and buy long-dated ones. With yields on the 10-year already below 2.00%, I'm not sure how big of an effect this could possibly have. If it spurs more bank lending, I'm all for it, but it would seem there might be a better solution if increased bank lending is truly the aim. Let's see what the Bernank has to say about it.

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