Monday Morning Musings

Another deja vu Monday with our markets opening up lower amid continued worries about the fiscal conditions in Europe. France's market is down sharply on news that three of their large financial institutions could have their debt ratings downgraded.

Asian markets were also down sharply overnight, with Hong Kong -4.2% lower but China was closed.

It has already been a volatile morning, with our markets opening lower but then rallying all the way back into positive territory. Currently, the markets are fading a bit and giving back some of that rally.

The flight to safety is mixed today, with Treasury prices flat and the 10-year yield steady at 1.92%. Gold prices are also lower to $1834, while oil prices are actually up a bit around $87.50.

The volatility index (VIX) is on the move again, rising +7% to 41.30 currently. That said, it continues to make a series of lower lows on the last 4 spikes higher on the chart.

In corporate news, Broadcom (BRCM) announced it will acquire NetLogic (NETL) for a 50% premium. Anyone who is long NETL this morning is feeling pretty good.

Trading comment: Until the news in Europe improves, all rallies seem temporary in nature. We continue to remain defensive and have been adding to our hedges on any large rallies. The earnings estimates for the S&P 500 for 2012 are starting to be revised downward, and that will be an important development. The ECRI weekly growth index fell deeper into negative territory last week.

long SH; short EFA

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Beer Me! Use 45 Day Rules to Strengthen Customer Relationships

“Beer Day” is a US Naval term, so named because it’s the one day that crew members at sea are issued and allowed to consume beer (usually just one or two). Way back in 1794, the US congress set a daily ration for alcohol for sailors and in 1914 a general order was issued which ended all alcohol consumption. The only exception that is made occurs when a ship has been out to sea for at least 45 continuous days without a port call, at which time the Commanding Officer can call for a Beer Day. Once had, another 45 day interval must pass before another Beer Day can be authorized.

With that bit of history in mind, establish some of your own 45 day rules to renew your relationships with customers and employees. Here are some ideas to get you started:

• If you have not heard from a customer in 45 days: make contact, send a postcard, extend a special offer, e-mail or text them—let them know that you miss them.
• Even if you normally don’t see your clients more than twice or even once a year (such as in dental or medical practices), make some kind of contact with your clients at least once every 45 days. An e-mail newsletter, a postcard announcing new services or products, a letter introducing a new associate or caregiver, connecting customers with other community resources or city events, an invitation to “like” your Facebook page or follow you on Twitter—send them something!
• Don’t go more than 45 days without generating, reviewing and analyzing marketing reports that tell you how your marketing efforts are working for direct mail, e-mail, social media and the other forms of marketing in which your business is engaged.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without changing your marketing offers, updating your website or changing window and in-store displays; as human beings, we tend to ignore and tune out what we feel we have seen and heard before, but are naturally drawn to what our minds perceive as "new."
• Don’t go more than 45 days without touching base with prospective clients by personal note or e-mail: send them a link to an article relative to their business or personal interests, tell them about an idea you had, tell them about any new features, products or services you can provide, or simply let them know you’re available if they have any questions.
• Don’t go 45 days without visiting the blogs and/or social media pages of your clients. Share their links and ideas via social media, “like” their posts and status updates or post comments to blog articles.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without having a one on one conversation with each of your employees, or at least with each of your direct reports. Conversely, don’t go more than 45 days without meeting one on one with your immediate supervisor, the director of your board, without making contact with your investors, etc.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without meeting with key members of your team to renew shared understanding of and passion for your business’ mission, vision, values and current goals.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without learning something new about and/or getting feedback directly from customers (and/or employees) through the use of surveys or polls.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without investing in you: read a book for personal or professional development or attend a seminar or webinar.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without holding a brainstorming session with employees, vendors or other stakeholders in order to make improvements to the customer experience, become more efficient or productive, or to innovate.
• Don’t go more than 45 days without touching base with businesses that you partner with for cross marketing or work with cooperatively on events and promotions. Discuss ways to generate more referrals, refresh your joint marketing collateral or extend a special offer to their customers or employees.
• Don't go more than 45 days without interacting with influential members of your community (such as city leaders and members of your chamber of commerce or civic organizations). Inquire about new community initiatives, urban planning or upcoming legislation that might impact your business.

Actually scheduling reminders and setting aside work time for tasks like these can help ensure these important marketing activities don’t fall off the map. I'd love to hear from you — what other 45 day rules can you think of to help strengthen your business and your relationships with customers and employees?



Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Friday's 5 - Marketing Shorts and Sweets

Ever notice that when a week starts with a Monday holiday, the rest of the week goes all to heck? I can almost hear the more organized among you tsk-tsking me and murmuring something about better time management and self-discipline... why is it that you sound like my mother?

Here are 5 short and sweet tidbits to end your week with or to help you get inspired to do one more marketing activity this week (or at least think about it!)


Ponder this:
The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short;
but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark. (Michaelangelo)


[READ] 5 Signs your logo needs a facelift
It’s a smart idea to take a periodic look at revamping your logo. But, it’s a careful process. If you’re feeling iffy about your logo, here are five signs it’s time for a facelift.


[READ] The shelf life of social media
New research from URL shortening service bitly focuses on how long a link is "alive” before people stop engaging with it and whether it matters what kind of content it is or where it was shared.


[READ] The single word that is stealing your future
I wish I had written this! No doubt about it, words have power, and this one has the power to steal your future.


[READ] 3 eyeliner tricks to try
Ok, this isn't marketing, but it's still good to know. Open-edged, thick and squared off or a double-sided cat eye; dialing up the drama with eyeliner is in this fall.




If you like this, subscribe to have Monday's regular newsletter delivered right to your email inbox. It's free, you can opt out any time, and I probably won't bother you more than once each week!

Elizabeth Kraus – 12monthsofmarketing.com
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in book and digital formats.

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Obama Talks Big Game, Sparks Little Enthusiasm

Last night Obama unveiled his big jobs plan, but it looks like it did little to improve sentiment this morning. Maybe he should have been this diligent with his first fiscal stimulus plan.

Credit default swap prices are all higher this morning, with Greece surging to record highs. The market is acting like a Greek default is both a near certainty and also imminent.

Asian markets were lower overnight. Japan's Q2 GDP came in at -1.5%, and China's CPI eased a bit coming in at 6.2% for August. Europe is also lower this morning, with considerable pressure on the banks again.

The flight to safety trade is half on today. The dollar index is higher, reaching a five month high. And Treasury bonds are higher, pushing yields on the 10-year Note back down to 1.97%.

The higher dollar is pressuring most commodities, with oil prices pulling back to $87 and gold prices down slightly to $1850.

I have been talking about the stubbornly high VIX index. Today it is another 11% higher to 38.0. The market has not had any calm days this week. It has been either up big or down big each day. As of now, the SPX is slightly negative for the week while the Nasdaq is still positive. We will have to see if we get any short-covering into the close.

Trading comment: Every time I begin to question my cautious stance we get hit with another vicious selloff that validates my thesis. Until we get some clarity out of Europe, better economic data in the U.S., or good news on the earnings front I don't see how the market can muster much more than the trading bounces we have seen. For the last month, the SPX has traded in a range between 1120 - 1220. It will be interesting to see which side of said range gets broken first.

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ECB Not Cutting Rates Yet

The markets were lower in early trading, but as of this post they are firming and moving back into positive territory. Yesterday the markets enjoyed a strong rally, bouncing back from 3 straight down days. But volume yesterday was again nothing to write home about.

The dollar is gaining at the expense of the euro after ECB President Trichet relayed a downward revision to GDP forecasts for the eurozone. Thanks, Jean. Everyone knows growth is slowing. So why don't you lower interest rates instead of keeping them at 1.50%? You will cave eventually, so why not get out in front of the data? Silly.

Tech is leading the early action, while financials are lagging so far today.

The weak dollar has helped push gold prices higher to $1853, and oil prices are also up to $89.65.

The 10-year yield is flat around 2.02%; and the VIX is slightly lower to 32.80. For this rally to have legs, I think we need to see more of an allocation out of bonds and into stocks. That means we would have to see the yield on the 10-year move higher. I also think we need to see the VIX come down even more. It remains at historically elevated levels.

One indicator moving in the right direction is the AAII survey. Bears are now 40%, which exceeds the number of bulls (30%) by a healthy margin. We need to see bearish sentiment hit extreme levels in order for the selling to exhaust itself, and this is a step in the right direction.

This morning we will hear a speech from Bernanke at the Minnesota Economic Club, which could move the markets although I doubt we will hear much new stuff. And later tonight we will hear Obama's new jobs plan, which I have very little faith will actually have a big impact on the high unemployment rate.

Trading comment: I want to highlight that there are some stocks acting well during this market bounce. VRUS is making new highs; LULU looks like it could be breaking out again; JAZZ is at new highs; MJN is acting very well; AAPL has continued to hold up well; PSMT is also right near its highs. So it's okay to hold stocks exhibiting excellent relative strength. But rallies should be used to get rid of lagging stocks, and overall long exposure should be hedged to be safe. I prefer using the inverse index ETFs to hedge my downside exposure. Hope that helps.

long AAPL, PSMT, LULU, VRUS

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Sigh of Relief In Germany

The markets are nicely higher in early trading after a German court rejected a lawsuit intended to block Germany's participation in EU bailouts. Europe needs Germany's support in a big way, so this lawsuit had many investors worried.

Before Europe opened, Asian markets were also higher overnight, and our markets opened higher as well. The flight to safety trade that I talked about yesterday is being sold today. All 3 safehavens are lower.

To wit, Treasury prices are lower, pushing the 10-year yield up to 2.03%. The dollar is also lower today, helping to boost most commodities. But gold prices are off sharply, falling back to $1815.

In corporate news, Yahoo finally got rid of CEO Carol Bartz, and the stock is rallying.

I mentioned yesterday that the VIX was making a series of lower highs. Today, the VIX is down -8% to 34.15. It has not traded below the 30 level in over a month. I suspect we will get back down there at some point this month, but it will be interesting to see if it bounces higher from its 50-day average, if and when.

Trading comment: Given the poor start to the month, I wouldn't' be surprised to see the market lift a little higher in the short-term. But I am still not changing my intermediate-term game plan of remaining defensive. I am only looking to add to stocks that are both defensive and high-yielding. I also want to add back to some of the index etf hedges I took off in late August.

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It's Build a Better Image Week!

In contrast to self-improvement, which often involves changes we desire to make for ourselves, building a better image is about making improvements in order to change the way we appear to others. In business terms, “branding” includes the activities and changes you make in order to change how your customers and prospects perceive your business.

Because your image, or brand, is really just that: perception. It’s not your logo, mission statement or décor—although all of those items are part of your brand identity. At its most practical and useful level, your brand image really consists of the perceptions that exist in the customer’s mind about who you are and the benefits your business provides that are established and either reinforced or undermined, each and every time they come in contact with you or with any facet of your business.

Building a better image is about putting the stamp of the personality, values, culture, beliefs—the very essence of what you really want your business to be—on every possible customer touch point. Why is this important? Without a strong brand image, you have to build a case for why you deserve someone's business, every single time you get ready to make a sale. Businesses with strong brands are closing deals while others are still introducing themselves.

Key to any brand improvement or overhaul you want to make to your business are authenticity and employee buy-in, from the top down. Why? Because, while you can refine any of the components of your brand identity (your logo, mission and vision statements, tag line, décor, customer guarantees and assurances, and even your product and service mix) to their ideal best, if the customer experience in your business doesn’t line up with the promises you are making, that image will be shattered. And once lost, it can be next to impossible to regain the customer’s trust.

You can’t control other people’s perceptions, but you can thoughtfully design all of those elements of your brand identity which are under your control in order to build the best possible image in the mind of your customers and prospects—and that’s what branding is all about. You can download a free branding checklist from my website at this link.

Build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients – it’s going to be a great year!



Elizabeth Kraus, Author, 365 Days of Marketing
365 Days of Marketing is now available on amazon.com in book and digital formats as are my other books, Make Over Your Marketing and 12 Months of Marketing for Salon and Spa. Find more ideas and inspiration, subscribe to e-mails, read my blogs, connect with me on Facebook or visit 12monthsofmarketing.com.

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