Morning After Pill

Totally knackered after a marathon local election count that took an extraordinary 7 hours to deliver a result. But briefly...

Locally, the Tories did incredibly well.

Our new consituency MP fought off a strong LD challenge to increase the Tory majority and win over 50% of the votes - the first time that's been done since c1738. A fantastic night.

Next door in the Major's constituency, the Tory incumbent fought off another strong LD challenge to win a hugely increased majority.

Across Surrey as a whole, the Tories won a clean sweep of every single seat, and with increased majorities.

Zooming out to look at England, the Tories have so far accumulated a clear majority of 32 seats, winning 40% of the votes.

And yet...

Yes, once again, our old friends North of the border have voted for something entirely different. Only one of their 59 MPs will be a Tory.

So we have dropped into the merde. Markets crashing, and we Surrey/English taxpayers unable to elect a government that will tackle spending.

The phone-ins are saying that the country has voted for politicos to come together "for the good of the country" - they should stop bickering and "just get on with it".

OMG. There is zip understanding that "getting on with it" involves some very awkward decisions and a lot of losers. There isn't a cat's chance of getting on with anything without a majority government.

So, time to leave?

First, some sleep.

Then, let's see the appalling Brown levered out the door.

Then... well, sleep first.

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My Next Marketing Career

The future belongs to marketing specialists, not generalists.

If I were starting my B2B marketing career today I would think about becoming a specialist in one of two areas. These are areas of marketing execution and measurement that may seem narrow, but will be deep enough to be the foundation for a specialized career. Narrow and deep is the key to success. Be the one person at your company that really knows how to provide:

1) "Forensics". Be the specialist in how to data-mine the activity inside a B2B sales force automation system. Become your company's expert in turning those data into analysis, and then turn the analysis into actions on how to change the marketing activity that impacts all phases of that sales pipleine.

OR (not AND !)

2) "Measurement Agility". The traditional execution of a marketing program or campaign follows a long arc of time from concept to content to production to media execution to response and to results. Digital and social media are dramatically shortening that arc and this brings a world of opportunity for more agile measurement and response. Become your company's specialist on rapid-time, real-time measurement and adaptation.

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Coloured Opinions.

The xkcd blog asked their readers to identify/name colours in a survey. I don't know why they did it and I'm not sure they anticipated getting over five million judgements, but that's what happened. The graphic above shows the result of some subsequent analysis into gender differences.

Are women more interested in colours, more visually astute or have they been over-educated in bogus terminology by fashion marketing? Are men more decisive, visually illiterate or are they just disinterested in colours?

Who knows? What I take away from this is a reminder that we all have different opinions and passions about the simplest things and that your customers' nuance is not going to be the same as yours.

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Decision Day

What the bookies say - implied probability (%) of outright Tory majority (blue) and hung parliament (red)

Mr and Mrs T are about to hit the election day trail - voting, followed by last minute town centre canvassing, followed by "getting the vote out" (whatever it takes), followed by a nail biting night at the local count.

Locally, the bookies reckon our man now has an 80% + chance of winning - better than a fortnight ago, but way short of comfort in a constituency that has never been anything other than Tory.

Nationally, the odds say a hung parliament is the most likely outcome (chart).  So we suggest everyone watches some more of that Greek coverage before voting.

Our result is due at 2am, so we hope they have a TV at the count - we certainly don't want to miss any Balls moments.

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NuLab - The Movie

No time for a proper blog - too much canvassing.

But we do need to watch and save this terrific Tory epic on NuLab's 13 appalling years. It's all there to remind us.

And while we're at it, let's take a few minutes to peruse the Sun's Dossier of Labour Shame.

While footslogging along the campaign trail we were trying to boil down their record to just three words. Setting aside a couple of thousand entirely appropriate obscenities, we eventually settled for:

• Arrogance
• Deceit
• Incompetence

Never ever elect these dreadful people again.

What's that? All politicos go the same way?

Well, yes, you do have a point.

But at least with the Tories they start from the right place. That big government isn't the answer to everything, that choice and competition are vital in our public services, and that personal responsibility is key to a healthy society.

Which is why Tyler is out 24/7 canvassing for them.

May we urge you to watch the movie and join us.

PS And yes, assuming Cam wins, we will be on his case. We may be working for his election, but that most certainly doesn't mean we then close our eyes for five years while he simply gets on with it. We need him to deliver on those traditional Tory values.

PPS How many of those dreadful people in the vid do you reckon will end up as Lords? Mandy's already got his of course, but Bliar, Brown, Blunkers - they'll all be there. And My Lord Prezza of Gross has a ring to it. Why do we put up with that, again?

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Tackling Our Fiscal Black Hole - People Ain't Dumb

My mate Mervyn told me...

The Governor of the Bank of England is only saying what a lot of us think - whoever administers the forthcoming fiscal austerity risks making themselves so unpopular they'll be out of power for a generation.

It almost happened to the Conservatives last time round. Yes, Thatcher sorted out the economic basket case we had become in the 70s. And yes, Clarke sorted out the mess left after our ill-advised experiment with the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. But only at the cost of making lifelong enemies among those who lost out, and of course among the genteel romantics who staff the Grun and the BBC.

So assumimg Cam wins, he's got one helluva problem on his hands. And doubtless there will be many advising him to stay the axe - just like the wets did back in 1979-81.

But that would be a serious mistake.

First, he needs to remember that the markets really are expecting serious action. As we blogged here, they have already effectively cut our credit rating from its traditional AAA status, and they will be going through George's June emergency budget with a fine tooth comb.

There'll be no room for shilly-shallying - the cuts will have to be commensurate with the scale of the problem. And just in case anyone's forgotten that scale, a BOM correspondent in Singapore has recently sent the following chart produced by Citi Global Markets to advise their clients.

It shows the amount of fiscal tightening needed by each of the major economies in order to get government debt back to the maximum safe sustainable level relative to national income (the maximum level reckoned by the IMF and others to be 60%):

As we can see, with the single exception of Japan, we in the UK have a bigger mountain to climb than anyone else. According to Citi's analysis we need to tighten fiscal policy by a whopping 12% of GDP. In plain English, that means the next government needs to cut spending or increase taxes by £180bn pa (in today's money). Which in round numbers is the equivalent of:

• 
  
  £7000 pa extra taxes/ lower spending per household;
• 
  
  increase in the basic rate of income tax to 65p; or
• 
  
  increase in the standard rate of VAT to 57%; or
• 
  
  25% off total public spending;

So there is no room for hesitation. And no time either. The longer we leave it the worse it's going to get, as mounting debt interest compounds the problem.

And for the those who say it would be better to call in the IMF and blame them, we invite you to watch the TV coverage of the Greek riots. The IMF is no easy option, and the IMF will give us little leeway to set our own priorities.

Comfort there was none?

Well, there is some comfort, and it comes from that old standby in times of trouble: the good sense of the British people. Just consider what one particularly sensible British person said to our ghastly Prime Minister last week:

"I said to him, “What are you going to do about the debt, Gordon? Greece is down and now Spain and Portugal have lost their credit rating. Who’s next?” I’m going on holiday to Canada and I used to get $2.50 to the £1. When I go to change my currency this time I’ll be lucky if I get $1.50."

Gillian Duffy is no swivel-eyed small state economist like yours truly, but she knows there's a serious problem and something pretty major has to be done. I'm betting she speaks for millions of us.

*****

Tyler is now up to his neck in the local campaign, so posting next week will be light. The good news is that the Clegg effect seems to be fading, and although our manor is still awash with LD posters, positive feedback from the doorsteps has put a spring back in our step. Like the man said, trust the people.

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Our Scary Shambolic Migration "Debate"

On the campaign trail yesterday, Tyler had the chance to chat with leaders of our sizeable local muslim community. Very interesting.

For one thing, these are people who most definitely contribute to our society. Not only do they run a wide range of local businesses, they also really do believe in giving something back - both in time and money.

What also became clear was that they are as concerned about the immigration issue as the rest of us. They are as appalled as Tyler at Brown's dismissal of the Rochdale granny as a bigot. And they want to see somebody get a grip on the numbers now coming to Britain. Housing's a big local problem, jobs have become a problem, and this is all getting very scary.

One of the underlying problems of course, is that we haven't got a clear agreed view on what's actually going on.

For example, last night on BBC TV News, Prog Con spokesman Mark Easton did a "reality check" on Clegg's now notorious claim that 80% of immigrants come from within the EU (see yesterday's blog). And Easton concluded that Clegg is indeed wrong (see his blog here).

However - and it is A Big However - where Clegg is right is in saying that only a small proportion of total non-EU immigrants say they are coming here to work. In fact, in the most recent year (2008), the International Passenger Survey records only one-in-eight long-term migrants coming to the UK from outside the EU and saying they're coming to work.

Which is why, suggests Easton, Clegg is right in saying the evil Tories' plan to cap the number of non-EU workers coming in won't work.

Hmmm.

What Easton didn't explain is what are all the others coming here for?

Because in terms of overall net migration flows, that very same Survey tells us that migrants from outside the EU constituted 130% of total immigration. Overall net immigration was 129,000, of which no fewer than 168,000 came from outside the EU (the overall figure is only brought down to 129,000 because a net 84,000 Brits upped sticks and left).

The truth is that by far the biggest inward migration flow from outside the EU comes from people who say they are coming here to study.

If we look at the same Survey, we find that just in the last 5 years, over 0.5m people net came here from outside the EU saying they were going to study. Which is 60% of all net inward migration over the period.

And in principle, we should be delighted that people want to study here. Not only does it earn us money, but it also gives us valuable worldwide connections for the future.

The problem comes when these students don't actually leave again afterwards. Or even worse, when they are coming here as part of a thinly disguised people trafficking scam to study for one of those infamous bogus degrees.

So what should we do?

Despite what Easton implies, you have to believe that any capping system worth its salt will have to include students who want to stay on to work after they qualify. They can't just be left to join our labour force willy-nilly.

So a properly designed and enforced capping system must include such students from outside the EU.

The Tories are planning to do that... right?

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