Doomsday Deferred

Maybe we can stay luckyBOM has always been concerned about the rising burden of government debt interest, and we've blogged it many times. But we must admit that so far, it has not been quite the problem we feared. In fact, in the two years since we clocked off, official debt interest has only increased by £4bn pa - a surprisingly small sum when set against annual borrowing of £100bn plus.The reason of course is that for the last five years government...

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GDP Gets Slight Bump For Q4

Markets are mixed to higher in early trading.  The second estimate of Q4 GDP was raised from its original estimate of -0.1% to a small gain of +0.1%.  The boost came from an upward revision to real final sales which was revised to a gain of 1.7% from 1.1% previously.Also, the Chicago PMI for February came in above expectations at 56.8, which was also higher than January's reading of 55.6.Asian markets were higher across the board overnight, expect for India where the government proposed a one-year 10% tax surcharge on high income earners. ...

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The Freeze That Never Was

We need a new freezerBack in his first budget in 2010, George Osborne imposed a two-year public sector pay freeze. It supposedly applied to all staff except the low paid, who were to get a flat £250 annual increase.Unfortunately the freeze failed, as can be seen from the path of average public sector earnings since then:Moreover, while the official ONS earnings stats show a 5% increase, calculations based on dividing the total pay bill by the number...

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Stocks Rally On Strong Economic Data

The market is higher for a second day after bouncing from Monday's large selloff.  This morning investors got some good news in the form of solid economic data.  And Bernanke continues to testify before Congress in Day 2 of his bi-annual testimony.The first economic report was durable goods.  The headline figure showed a decrease of -5.2%, but this was due to a sharp 46% drop in defense aircraft orders.  Excluding  transportation, durable goods rose a solid 1.9% in January.  The second piece of data was pending home...

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Housing Data Remains Strong

The markets opened higher this morning on the heels of some solid economic data and also an attempt to bounce from yesterday's late day selloff.The December Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 6.8%, on top of last month's 5.5% gain.  Additionally, new home sales for January rose to 437,000 from December's pace of 378,000.  This data has helped boost homebuilding stocks in early trading.Separately, the latest consumer confidence reading for February rose to 69.6, well above estimates and above last month's reading of 58.6.But the spotlight...

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So How Are Those Cuts Coming Along?

Are we quite sure these things work?When we left on our two year sabbatical at the start of 2011, public spending was running at an annual rate of £700bn (Total Managed Expenditure). Now we're back and the most recent official figures say it's running at £674bn (2012-13). So that's a cut of around £25bn in just two years. Fantastic!Hmm... given what we know about previous cuts programmes, that actually sounds a bit too fantastic. Perhaps we should...

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Monday Morning Musings

There are no US economic reports this morning which has left the markets to take their cue from overseas.  The big news around the globe this morning is the Italian elections.  Stocks opened higher amid indications that Pier Bersani's party would be victorious.  But as conflicting reports began to surface, the markets early gains began to fade.This can be seen most clearly in the Italy ETF (EWI).  It opened 4% higher this morning but has since reversed all the way down to a 1.1% loss so far.  The Dow and S&P 500 also...

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Sure Enough, Two Years Later...

That's the Xmas presents sortedIt took a whole lot longer than expected, but the book is finally written and published. Hurrah! Imaginatively entitled Burning Our Money, it's available now from Biteback, Amazon, Waterstones, and all good booksellers.BOM the book draws together everything we've learned about government waste during six years of blogging it. The themes will be familiar to regular readers of the blog, but the book explores the issues...

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Early Bounce From 2-Day Selloff

The market is bouncing in early trading following the 2-day selloff that took the major indexes down by roughly -2%.  I don't expect a big pickup in volume as its Friday, so traders will have to wait until next week to see if sellers emerge again or if the brief selloff was enough to work off the recent overbought condition.There have been a few more earnings reports trickling in.  On the upside are HPQ, DRI, AIG, and PSA.  On the downside is ANF.There are no major economic reports to speak of today in the U.S.Asian markets were...

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The Pullback: Day 2

The market is selling off in early trading after some rare selling pressure surfaced yesterday with the market closing at its lows.  Global markets were also in selling mode overnight, and today our markets are pulling back for a second day.The S&P 500 has only pulled back 2% so far, but given the way the markets have performed this year it wouldn't be all that surprising to see the markets bounce back following this brief 2% pullback.  Energy stocks are down the most so far today, while defensive consumer staples are bucking...

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Keeping Real-Time Marketing Real.

Did Oreo really win the Superbowl? Did Dulux have a Oreo moment during the Brits last night?Real-time content marketing is all the rage, but let's face some facts. Oreo's Superbowl success waa based on a rightly praised but very traditional existing campaign and, I'd argue, they got lucky with the power blackout. The question that will never be answered is what would have happened if the lights had stayed on? Would the versions thay must have pre-prepared...

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Commodities Taking It On The Chin

The market is lower in early trading, though we have seen early morning weakness plenty of times this year that have never amounted to much.  We will have to see if dip buyers step in again later in the trading session.Commodities are in the spotlight as they trade particularly weak in the face of a rising dollar today. Oil prices are falling back to $94, and gold prices have broken below the $1600 level to around $1579.  Copper and silver prices are also lower.Materials stocks are lagging the market, while defensive utilities stocks...

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Stair-stepping To New Highs

The markets are once again making small moves to new highs after a brief pause on Friday that saw some light selling pressure.  We have called this the stair-step market because each time the market moves to new highs, it seems to then move sideways for just a bit before taking the next step and moving higher again.  This pattern has persisted since the start of the year with very little pullback to offer investors a better buying opportunity.This morning's only real economic report was the NAHB Housing index which slid to 46 from 47...

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Buffett Goes After A Biggie

The market is slightly lower in early trading, but not nearly enough to call it a selloff.  Most of the indexes are merely down fractionally while the small and mid-cap indexes are bucking the weakness.There has been some notable M&A action this morning.  Warren Buffett is making a big acquisition by acquiring Heinz (HNZ) for $28 billion and a 20% premium to yesterday's close.  Also, Constellation Brands (STZ) is spiking 35% after a revised agreement to divest the US Groupo Modelo business.Weekly jobless claims came in better...

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The Slow Grind Continues

The markets are higher again in early trading as the slow grind higher continues.  The S&P 500 is making new highs near 1525, about 50 points away from its all-time highs.  For the Nasdaq 100, it is still about 100 points shy of its 52-week high.  People don't talk about the all-time highs for the Nasdaq, at least not in polite circles.In economic news, January retail sales rose +0.1%, and +0.2% excluding autos.  That was slightly better than expected, but below last month's reading of +0.5%.In corporate news, Comcast announced...

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Gold Can't Rally Despite Weaker Dollar

The dollar has been weaker for the past 2 days but gold hasn't been able to rally at all.  Two days doesn't make a trend, but normally gold responds positively to dollar weakness.  The inability of gold to rally recently has some gold bugs questioning their bullish thesis, Dennis Gartman among them.  Technically, gold has still not been able to break the downtrend that started last October.There isn't any market moving economic data to speak of today.  Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher, at least the ones that were...

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Monday Morning Musings

The market is slightly lower in early trading, but once again the selling doesn't feel like it has much bite.  On Friday the markets broke out of their recent trading range with the S&P 500 moving to new highs on the year.  Those waiting for a deeper pullback continue to be frustrated as this stair-step market continues.There hasn't been a lot of market moving news this morning, with no big economic releases.  Asian markets were mostly closed for the holiday.  Japan, Hong Kong and China were all closed for trading. ...

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Stocks Back In Rally Mode

The market sold off yesterday morning, but by the end of trading it rallied back to close with just a small loss on the day.  Investors hoping for a bigger pullback continue to be frustrated with the stair-step action of the market, and today we are back in rally mode with the S&P 500 breaking above the highs of its recent trading range.In economic news, the US trade deficit shrank in December, but the brief strikes at the ports of LA and Long Beach likely contributed to the lower numbers.In earnings news there are lots of stocks moving,...

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The Wisdom Of Dave Trott.

1) Don't define yourself by your department.2) Being professional means being objective.3) People must notice the advertising (words that never appear in the brief).4) It's all about Bernbach's "Timeless Human Truths".5) Branding: being unable to repeat the ad without naming the product.6) You don't need twelve housewives from Slough.7) Ads don't run on the boardroom table. Photo by Nicole Yershon, shoulder by me....

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ECB Keeps Interest Rates Steady, Euro Falls

The market is lower in early trading mostly on profit taking and a couple slightly weaker economic reports.This morning Q4 productivity came in at -2.0%, below estimates.  Also unit labor costs increased by 4.5%, well above the 2.4% estimate and a higher figure than we have seen in a while.  Unit labor costs are one of the biggest inflation components, so if this is a trend it could worry inflation hawks.Asian markets ended mostly lower overnight.  Australian unemployment held steady at 5.4%.  China fell -0.7% to snap its...

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Japan Surges On Hopes Of More Quantitative Easing

Markets are slightly lower this morning on the heels of some weakness in Europe and mild profit taking.  But the indexes found their lows in the first hour of trading and have since started to bounce back into positive territory.  Dip buyers continue to surface quickly on declines.  It is still early in the session, and it is how the market closes that counts.  But recent selloffs have not been able to gain much traction.Overnight Asian markets were higher, led by a 3.8% surge in Japan.  That puts the Nikkei at its best...

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Was That The Pullback??

The market is sharply higher after closing on its lows yesterday.  We commented that depending on how desperate portfolio managers are to put cash to work we could see dip buyers emerge quickly.  But for the market to only be lower for one day is surprising.  Although the day is still early.It is unclear what the real catalyst is for this morning's move.  It could be the news that Obama will seek a package to avoid the sequester.  Outside of that there aren't too many datapoints that would boost stocks.Earnings continue...

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Monday Morning Musings

Markets are trading lower in early trading, taking their cues from overseas where European markets are under pressure.  But I don't think we are entering another period where Europe will be driving sentiment for US markets.  Rather, we have talked about the market being overbought and overdue for a small pullback.  So today's news could just be the catalyst.Earnings season is slowing down a bit, but there are still reports that will be coming in all week.Stocks rising on earnings:  HUM, CLX, TDG, BROStocks falling on earnings: ...

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It's The Reaction To The News That Counts

Despite some lower than expected economic reports this week, the market is powering to new highs this morning.  Great traders always say its the reaction in stocks to the news that counts more than the news itself.  On Wednesday when we got the weak GDP headline, a weak market would have plummeted.  But instead we saw a mild, orderly decline.  And today's jobs report came in below expectations which normal causes selling in stocks but instead we just saw the Dow hit 14,000 for the first time since 2007.  You can call it...

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