Stocks Ride The Political Roller Coaster

Yesterday the market was rallying on perceptions that progress was being made on the fiscal cliff.  Then Harry Reid came on tv and said the sides are still far apart.  That caused a market swoon right away.  This morning the markets opened very weak but then Boehner spoke with more comments about being flexible on tax rates and the market rallied a quick 100 points.That is a huge amount of volatility on just political rhetoric.  But I don't think it is going away in the short-term.  I expect a lot more back and forth and...

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The Low ROI Of Narcissists.

I've long been a sceptic of the value of Facebook Likes and Twitter retweets as measures of anything but the narcissism of the people clicking on the butons.It's largely been a gut-feeling that's occasionally backed up by anecdotal evidence. Take, for example, the experience of the well-known blogger who was delighted to receive a huge number of retweets of his tweet announcing a new blogpost and slightly less delighted to realize later that those retweets outnumbered the aggregate number of page-views the post received in the following week.So,...

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Do Stocks Have More Gas Left In The Tank?

The market is mixed to lower in early trading, with the first early dip attracting buyers.  Yesterday the S&P 500 was down as much as 12 points but rallied back late in the day to close down only 3 points.  That's not too much of a give back following the outsized gains from Thanksgiving week.  The question is do stocks have any gas left in the tank?  If the market was in a more bearish mode, we would have seen a bigger pullback already from last week's gains.  But the action so far looks more like consolidation. ...

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Monday Morning Musings

After one of the best weeks for the market last week, stocks are pulling back in early trade this morning.  The market had become quite oversold coming into last week, so a bounce was not unexpected.  But now that we have seen a big bouce, we will have to see if more profit taking sets in or if buyers will look to add more stocks into month end which occurs this week.There is not much market moving economic news this morning.  In corporate news, AAPL is bouncing after a Citi upgrade and a $675 price target.  Facebook (FB) is...

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US Stocks Open Flat Despite Overnight Bounce in Asia

US stock markets are hovering near the flat line in early trading.  There hasn't been too much news, and I would expect that trading today would be relatively light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.  On Friday the market will only be open a half day.In economic news, the Univ of Mich consumer sentiment survey for November slid to 82.7 from its preliminary reading of 84.9.  The latest weekly jobless claims figures totaled 410,000 which is down from last week's total of 451,000.Overnight Asian markets rallied despite some weak Japan...

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Are Stocks Catching Their Breath After Monday's Rally?

The markets are roughly flat in early trading following yesterday's solid rally.  Stocks rallied both Friday and Monday, so its rational for them to take a breather.  The question for investors is whether stocks are just catching their breath before another push to the upside or if the last 2 day rally was just a breather from the recent downtrend action?  I think the markets still have some more upside, though I don't see us getting back to the highs of the year.This morning both BBY and HPQ are making new lows after reporting disappointing...

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Monday Morning Musings

The markets are nicely higher in early trading, with the Dow up 150 points following strength on Friday's close and rallies in overseas markets last night and this morning.Israel has said it may increase its assault on the Gaza strip, and that has oil rallying another $2 to $89.  But that has not derailed the rally in stocks so far this morning.  One thing that concerns me a bit is that I never like to see very strong opens as that leaves a lot of time during the trading session for sellers to emerge knock down the market.  I prefer...

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Oversold Nazz Looks Due For A Bounce

The market is lower once again in early trading as this market continues to trade heavy and just can't seem to bounce.  Bearish sentiment is on the rise, which should help the market bounce at some point.  Also, the Nasdaq has been down 6 straight weeks so it looks overdue for a bounce as well.Fears about the fiscal cliff continue to manifest themselves in the form of high dividend paying stock getting hit the hardest.  Today telecom stocks are getting sold off, and the utilities sector has already seen heavy selling.  I think...

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FutureM: For Marketers, Times They are a Changin’

I attended FutureM in Boston a few weeks ago and the main take away was: Marketing is changing quickly and organizations must grow and adapt, otherwise they will fall behind.IDC’s CMO Advisory Service has been advising this for some time, but as I read more blogs and attend more marketing based events like FutureM, the reality of overarching change is becoming obvious. IDC’s data points to this as well; investment in Digital Marketing within the Enterprise Tech industry has increased from 12.6% of budgets in 2009 to 29.2% by the end of 2012* -...

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Schedule Conflict

I have meetings this morning.  Please check back tomorrow for our next market update.Thank yo...

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Richard Fisher: Fed Won't Catch Markets If US Falls Off "Cliff"

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Can Market Reverse Its Recent Trend?

Yesterday I said that the market looked solid with the SPX testing its 200-day but that I needed to see a strong close for stocks in order to get more constructive.  Lo and behold the market sold off again at the end of the day and finished weak.  That has been the pattern for over a week, and we need to see that change.This morning the market opened slightly higher, but quickly turned tail and moved into negative territory.  Obama is coming on TV soon, and if he is bearish about the fiscal cliff prospects stocks could sell off further. ...

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An Early Rebound For Stocks

Stocks followed the overseas weakness and opened lower, but immediately bottomed and so far look to be staging a solid turnaround day.  We could use a strong day where the markets close at their highs.There are still a few earnings reports trickling in.  Some stocks on the upside after reporting include HD. KORS, and TJX to name a few.  But earnings season is winding down.The weakness started last night in Asia.  China fell -1.5% last night.  Japan reported a -4.1% drip in industrial production.  Europe is also lower...

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Senator Kyl Sees Higher Revenues Without a Tax Hike

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Monday Morning Musings

The market was slightly higher in early trading, but not much of a bounce given how far the markets have come down in recent weeks.  As of this post, the early gains are eroding and the indexes are flirting with going back in the red on the session.Biotech stocks are leading the market this morning after some positive trial data.  CELG is up 7% after results from a pancreatic cancer trial.  And GILD is up as much as 12% after positive Hep C trial data.In M&A news, Jeffires (JEF) is 22% higher after confirming plans to merge with...

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An End Of Week Bounce For Stocks?

Stocks are trying to muster a bounce in early trading, although it should be noted there is still a lot of time left in this trading session.  Coming into today, the S&P 500 was down -2.6% for the week.  So far it is bouncing roughly 0.5%.  AAPL bulls are also happy that at least for now the stock appears to have found some support and is up $11 so far.The Univ. of Mich. consumer confidence number surprised everyone to the upside, coming in at 84.9.  That is the highest reading since July 2007.  Can anyone tell me where...

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Does The S&P 500 Have A Date With Its 200-day?

Markets opened higher but gave up those gains in the first hour of trading.  The S&P 500 bounced to 1401 but has given back about 10 points and is now trying to stabilize.  Yesterday's selloff came on pretty high volume, and it looks like the next level of support for the SPX will be near the 200-day average which currently sits at 1380.Utilities (XLU) are bouncing the most, after selling off in the wake of Hurricane Sandy and the damage to East Coast electrical systems.  Financials (XLF) are also getting a bounce following yesterday's...

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Data Analytics wins 2012 US Presidential Election

Data analytics was the big winner in the 2012 US Presidential race. In fact, 11:17 PM (US ET) November 6th was the moment data analytics went mainstream. This was when Ohio was officially projected to go to Obama. It was the ultimate validation for Nate Silver and his data analytics approach to election forecasting. To much fanfare he accurately predicted the results of the election in all 50 states without doing any of his own polling. He used sophisticated analytic models based on data from as many third party polls he could find. To...

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Market Jeers Election Results

Markets in the US are down sharply pretty much across the board following last nights presidential election.  As for this post, the Dow is down 300 points, although it is still early in the session so its possible we could recoup some of this decline into the close.  Let's hope.Sectors that were perceived to benefit under a Romney administration are getting hit hard today.  Coal stocks are down sharply (KOL), and financials stocks (XLF) are also down more than the other sectors today.  Interestingly, consumer discretionary stocks...

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Is Australia Seeing China Stabilization?

Markets are higher in early trading on light volume ahead of tonight's presidential election.  There is much speculation about how the market will fare tomorrow depending on who wins.  I have said I think the market should bounce in the near-term either way due to the removal of uncertainty.  If the vote can't be decided tonight for some reason (remember Florida?) we could see some downside.Overnight the action in Asia was mostly lower ahead of the election and the handoff in power in China.  The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised...

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Monday Morning Musings

The market is off to a bit of a weak start this morning likely due to the uncertainty over the US presidential election tomorrow.  In economic news, the October ISM Services index came in at 54.2, which was below expectations and down from last month's reading of 55.1.On the M&A front, KBW announced a merger with Stifel Financial (SF) at a 7% premium to Friday's closing price.Markets were mostly lower in Asia overnight ahead of the US election as well as the hand-off in power Thursday to the 18th National Congress in China.  China...

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Know What You're Marketing.

Andrew Grill (CEO of Kred) is a good guy and he's got a lot of coverage recently for his posts that detail his failure to connect to the brand new 4G service launched by EE. While he makes some good points, I fundamentally disagree with his assertion that marketing did their job.No, marketing absolutely did not do their job. They didn't do job number 1. They didn't ensure that what they were promoting aligned with the reality of the product/service...

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SPX Turned Away At 50-Day Average

The markets were higher in early trading after a better than expected jobs report, but the S&P 500 ran into resistance and all of the major indexes turned lower such that they are currently back in the red.Today's nonfarm payrolls report surprised to the upside with 171,000 payrolls added in October vs. consensus of 125,000.  The prior month's reading was also revised higher to 148k jobs added from the initial estimate of 114k.  The unemployment rate ticked a notch higher to 7.9%.Separately, September factory orders showed an increase...

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Is China's Economy Bottoming?

Markets are sharply higher this morning on what has to be the first of the month type of action in terms of portfolio managers putting money to work.  There was some positive economic data out also, but not so strong that it would cause a 150-point rally in the market.The ADP Employment report showed that private businesses added 158,000 jobs in October, slightly better than the 143k consensus.  The October ISM manuf index also came in above expectations at 51.7 vs. last month's reading of 51.5.  Consumer confidence rose to 72.2...

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