Monday, April 30, 2012

Why Businesses Aren't Investing in the U.S.



Businesses aren’t investing in the United States because of a lack of consumer demand, International Paper CEO John Faraci said Friday.


“I think this was all about consumer spending and demand. You know, the problem we have is there’s inadequate demand to create jobs. We know how to respond when there is demand,” he said on CNBC’s “The Kudlow Report.”

The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, falling short of analysts’ expectations it would grow 2.5 percent and slowing down from the fourth quarter’s 3-percent rate.

Consumer spending has been damped partly because the nationwide housing market has yet to recover, he said.

“Until it does, we’re not going to see the kind of consumer spending you would expect coming out of a recovery,” he said.

Asked again by host Larry Kudlow why companies were not investing, Faraci once more pointed to demand that has not materialized.

“Productivity has obviously been very good, so we’re creating more capacity with less resources. But at the end of the day, this is really about responding to demand, whether it’s automobiles or packaging products we make for a whole variety of industries and end users,” he said.

“We’re investing in India. We’re investing in Russia. We’re investing in Brazil. Not to ship products back here but because demand exists in those markets,” he said. “At the end of the day, this is really about responding to demand. We’re not going to go out and invest unless there’s demand.”

Earlier in the day, International Paper posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit on strong sales of shipping boxes and paper.

“I feel very good about the rest of the year,"Faraci told Reuters. "It’s not a macro-bullish story. It’s a macro-positive story.”

Don Peebles, CEO of Peebles Corp., a real estate developer, said that housing remains a drag on the economy.

A strong market, cheap money and high leverage fueled growth before the financial crisis, he said.

“What’s happening now is the housing market is not able to carry the economy,” he said. “Americans’ wealth has been decimated as a result of the lost value in their homes.”

Peebles also acknowledged, as the only small-business owner, that rising health-care costs and uncertainty over taxes were a challenge. But, he added, the No. 1 issue was access to capital.

Mort Zuckerman, founder of real estate investment trust Boston Properties and publisher of the New York Daily News and U.S. News & World Report, took aim at the slow growth.

Zuckerman blamed the housing-market collapse, as well as health-care costs and what he called an “inadequate, badly structured stimulus program.”

“Clearly, you should’ve had a GDP growth now of somewhere between 6 and 8 percent, with the degree of monetary and fiscal stimulus,” he said.



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Monday Morning Musings

The market is lower in early trade after a 4-day bounce last week that resulted in solid weekly gains for the major indexes.

The big news has come on the M&A front this morning.  First, Microsoft (MSFT) said it will invested $300 million into Barnes & Noble (BKS) to form a strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the transition to e-reading.  BKS stock is up a whopping 62% on the news, aided by short-covering.

Also, Gen-Probe (GPRO) reported solid earnings but also said it will be acquired by HOLX for $82.75, which is roughly a 20% premium to Friday's closing price.

In economic news, the Chicago PMI was disappointing at 56.2 vs. a reading of 60 that was expected.  Personal spending for March was also below expectations at +0.3% vs. +0.5% consensus.  Friday will bring the monthly jobs report, and I just saw that Goldman is estimating the economy added 125k jobs in April.

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, while Europe is lower this morning on confirmation that Spain is officially in recession.  But is that really a surprise?

Earnings reactions have been mostly to the downside from what I've noticed today.  Examples of stocks falling on earnings reports this morning include: ABV, HUM, SOHU, and NYX to name a few.

The dollar is roughly flat vs. the euro, but commodities are mostly lower today.  Oil prices are lower near $104.40 and gold prices have eased back to $1657.

The 10-year yield is drifting lower to 1.91%; and the VIX is +6% higher so far near the 17.35 level.

Trading comment: I read an interesting article asking whether traders were preparing for the same summer selloff pattern that the markets experienced in 2010 and 2011.  While the fundamental backdrop seems similar (slowing economic data, unsettling news out of Europe) we don't have the same shocks like the flash crash or the earthquake.  Also, bond yields are already lower at current levels than they were before both summer rallies the last couple of years.  Additionally, corporate profit growth has been strong so valuations are cheaper than they have been as well.  There were the arguments that were made for any pullback to be more mild in nature.  But I would argue that we simply don't know, and that once a selloff picks up steam, its usually investor fear that drives prices lower than most investors were looking for.  So we are trimming some equity exposure ahead of time just to try to position ourselves better ahead of summer.

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Friday, April 27, 2012

Is The Market Whistling Past A Greek Redux?

The markets are slightly higher in early trading on the heels of more than 100 earnings reports that have come out last night and this morning, some mixed economic data, and another downgrade of Spain.

So far there doesn't seem to be much reaction to the S&P downgrade of Spanish debt to BBB+ from A, and a negative outlook.  Is the market whistling past a Greek redux?

In economic news, advance Q1 GDP estimates for the U.S. show the economy grew +2.2%.  This is below the 2.5% that had been expected, but in light of the slowdown in many other countries looks pretty good by comparison.

Also, the final reading on Univ. of Mich. consumer sentiment for April improved to 76.4 from the prior reading of 75.7.  So the mood among consumers remains upbeat, and that hopefully bodes well for the economy near-term, considering nearly 70% of our GDP is driven by consumer spending.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight.  The dollar is a bit lower today, giving a small boost to the CRB Commodity Index.  Oil prices are down slightly around $104.40.  And gold prices are higher near $1665.

There were tons of earnings reports in the last 24 hrs, but here are a few notable movers:

Stocks rising on earnings:
  • AMZN, SPG, NWL, AEM
Stocks rising on earnings:

  • DECK, WDC, SBUX, PG, HMSY, KLAC, MDRX
The 10-year yield hasn't moved much on today's economic reports, and is flattish near 1.95%.  The VIX is up a fraction today to 16.35, still a very low absolute level.  For those worried about the summer, you can still buy protection pretty cheap in the options market.

Trading comment: There have been more stocks falling on earnings reports than rising today, at least from what I have seen.  The indexes are still comfortably above their 50-day support, so investors are in buying mode.  But many leading growth stocks have more work to do in terms of consolidating their recent gains and building new bases from which they launch new rallies.  I would be somewhat surprised if the market went right back to new highs at this juncture.  Something tells me we are more likely to be in a trading range in the near-term.

KAM Advisors has long positions in SPG, SBUX, PG

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Thursday, April 26, 2012

Fewer Upside Surprises In Today's Earnings Reports

The market is flattish in early trading as scores of earnings reports continue to flood in.  Looking over today's report, there seems to be fewer upside surprises and more stocks that are trading down on in-line earnings reports.  Here's a few examples:

Stocks rising on earnings:
  • NUAN, SWI, EQIX, STMP, VIVO, REGN, MWW
Stocks falling on earnings:
  • VAR, AKAM, LVS, DOW, DB, UPS, XOM, LSTR, NUS
In economic news, pending home sales for March spiked 4.1%.  This news has helped lift the homebuilding stocks, but overall the data from the housing industry has been mixed and lumpy in recent weeks as the recovery remains very uneven.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, while Europe is mostly lower this morning.  The dollar is lower vs. the euro and that is helping boost commodities.  Oil prices are higher to $104.70 and gold prices have finally made a push above $1650 (currently $1657).

The 10-year yield again got rebuffed at the 2.0% level and is lower to 1.95%.  And the VIX is fractionally higher to 16.95 after moving back below its 50-day yesterday.

Trading comment: The major indexes are holding above their respective 50-day support lines.  This has the potential to put the bulls back in the driver's seat.  Yesterday's rally came on rising volume, so that's a start.  For those who follow the IBD-style market trend, we need to see a follow-thru rally on rising volume over the next week or so to confirm yesterday's rally attempt.  We also need to see many of these growth stocks that have been rolling over start to find support and attempt to build new bases.  Today SCSS is rolling over below its 50-day.

KAM Advisors has long positions in NUAN, SCSS, STMP, VAR, XOM

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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

8 Essential KPI's for the Intersection of Marketing and Sales

Conversations between sales and marketing improve when marketing generates data on the state of joint processes such as lead management.  But companies who are serious about orchestrating sales and marketing in a modern go-to-marketing model need more than these execution-level metrics. At the intersection of sales and marketing, senior executives need operational-level investment, resource allocation, and performance metrics.

Tech marketers have done a great job of growing the range of measurement dashboards within their management tool box.  These reports provide data about process execution and are primarily driven from automation such as CRM, email marketing, and web analytics. The data in these reports can answer important questions such as how many leads were produced and what really happened to them? This data can be extremely useful when talking to sales.  Replacing hearsay, gut feelings, and assumptions with accurate data results in a much more credible and actionable conversation.

Operational Insight Drives Strategy
 
While this kind of data is valuable at an execution level, it isn't the kind that drives strategic decisions. Senior management needs to know how to invest their most powerful resources – money and people – to get the best results. For this task, they need operational key performance indicators (KPIs) that answer questions such as what are my people really doing and where is my money deployed. Just as important, they need context around this data in order to understand its meaning and highlight what to change.

Comparison benchmarks serve as excellent insight into the meaning of operational-level KPIs. IDC has produced such operational-level scorecards for many years for each function separately - for marketing (IDC's Marketing Performance Scorecard) and for sales (IDC's Sales Productivity Scorecard). These scorecards are based on detailed investment data from over 100 tech companies. IDC parses leaders from laggards, mines for best practice nuggets, and combines this information with insights drawn from scores of interviews, interactions, surveys and the IDC teams' deep practitioner experience.

Introducing the Customer Creation Scorecard: Operational KPI's for the Intersection of Sales and Marketing
 
However, operational benchmarks have been lacking for companies who are serious about orchestrating the collaboration between sales and marketing within a more modern go-to-market model.  For this initiative, senior executives need to look at the joint investments in sales and marketing.

Recently, IDC introduced the Customer Creation Scorecard - eight operational KPI's leading companies should add to their dashboard. The eight are organized into three categories: investment, staff efficiency, and productivity levers.

Here are the aggregate level benchmarks for your 2012-2013 planning processes:
  1. Investment: Sales + marketing budget ratio = 10.6% of revenue is spent on sales and marketing combined
  2. Investment: Sales to marketing ratio = 4:1
  3. Investment: Marketing investment per total sales headcount = $40K to $70K
  4. Staff efficiency: Quota bearing headcount to field marketing ratio = 32:1
  5. Staff efficiency: Program to people KPI = 27% of all sales and marketing investment is spent on programs and the remainder on people
  6. Productivity levers: Operations staff percentage = 4.7% of all sales and marketing staff are in sales operations or marketing operations roles
  7. Productivity levers:  Sales enablement score = 47 out of 100 is the index that IDC has developed for the technology industry based upon detailed quantitative and qualitative research
  8. Productivity levers:  Lead management score = 52 out of 100 is the index that IDC has developed for the technology industry based upon detailed quantitative and qualitative research

IDC finds that these benchmarks vary significantly depending on attributes such as go-to-market model, company size, and industry sector.   IDC's also provides guidance around these KPI's.  For example, IDC recommends that companies measure sales and marketing costs jointly to better control overall expenses (this includes "shadow" marketing investments where sales teams use their own funds to conduct marketing activities).

For more information on the Customer Creation Scorecard, IDC insight on what your KPI ranges should be and what to do about it contact me or anyone on IDC's Executive Advisory Group team.
 

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Earnings Trump Economic Data In Early Trade

The markets are nicely higher in early trading on the heels of some better than exepcted earnings reports.  There was a disappointing economic report this morning in the form of durable goods, which fell -4.2% in March.  But investors are giving the data a pass and focusing on earnings.

The big earnings report last night was of course Apple (AAPL).  In case you missed it, AAPL blew out the numbers by more than $2.  It also sold 5 million more iPhones than the analysts were forecasting, and gross margins also posted significant upside.

I had been saying coming into the report that the recent action in AAPL seemed to me to be reflecting dramatically lowered expectations for the earnings report.  So I felt the stock was poised to bounce on the report, even if they only posted a mild beat.  But the stock has ramped on the earnings announcement, up by more than $50 (or 10%) back above the $610 level.

Stocks rising on earnings reports:
  • S, MOS, BA, HOG, GNC, PNRA, FTNT, AMGN, NSC
Stocks falling on earnings reports:

  • ABB, CAT, GD, BIDU
Asian markets were mixed overnight, while Europe is higher this morning.  The dollar is also a little bit lower, while commodities are mixed.  Oil prices are flattish near $103.50.  Gold prices are lower near $1638, still having difficulty getting above that $1650 resistance level.

The 10-year yield is getting another small bounce, but is still bumping its head at the 2.00% level, which has been resistance all year, despite a few brief spikes above those levels.

And the VIX is down 4% to 17.36.

Trading comment: The market is up a lot in early trading, but it remains to be seen if the strength can last into the close.  We also have the FOMC announcement today, and I think many are looking for the Fed to provide some hints about QE3.  I don't think the Fed is going to go there right now.  My guess is that they remain on point with what they have been saying recently.  I think they will reiterate holding rates low into 2014, and again say that they see inflationary pressures as temporary. 
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL

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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Stocks Attempt To Bounce In Early Trade

I think after yesterday's selloff I would prefer to see stocks open weak this morning and then rally into the close.  Stocks have opened strong, and if they can't maintain these early gains into the close it will not inspire much confidence.

Speaking of confidence, the April Consumer Confidence index eased to 69.2 from 70.2 the prior month, but the index is still at a fairly high level.

Housing data was mixed.  New home sales improved in March, but the Case-Shiller index fell -3.5% in February after falling -3.8% the prior month.

There has been a flurry of earnings reports out last night and this morning.  Reactions have been mixed. I don't see any huge gainers on earnings, and the one big disappointment I see is Netflix (NFLX).

Stocks rising on earnings reports:
  • MMM, T, UTX, KSU, ITW, TROW, PH, BHI
Stocks falling on earnings reports:

  • NFLX, SYMC, COH, BIG, RSH, APD, ARMH
Asian markets were mixed overnight.  Europe is higher this morning, bouncing back after yesterday's sharp losses.  An April consumer confidence poll in France rose to 88 from 87 the prior month.

The dollar is lower vs. the euro today, and that is helping the CRB commodity index gain 0.4%.  Oil prices are higher to $103.75 while gold prices have risen to $1646.  Gold hasnt' been able to get above that $1650 level in awhile.

The 10-year yield is getting a small bounce to 1.96%.  And the VIX is down 2% to 18.56 after spiking to the 20 level yesterday before reversing lower.

Trading comment:  All eyes will be on Apple (AAPL) tonight.  The stock is down again today on weak activation numbers out of T-mobile.  I feel like the big pullback from recent highs has lowered expectations sufficiently going into the earnings report that AAPL should trade okay following the report.  If the stock had continued to run ahead of the earnings report, I would be much more worried about a plunge on any disappointing numbers.  But at current levels I feel there is at least a little bit of a margin on safety in the stock given that it remains very cheap on a P/E and PEG basis.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, MMM, and UTX; short NFLX

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Monday, April 23, 2012

Monday Morning Musings

Markets are down sharply this morning on continued concerns about Europe as well as sluggish economic data from China.

Asian markets were lower overnight after HSBC said China's manufacturing PMI for April rose slightly to 49.1 from 48.3 last month.  But the reading is still below the 50 level that marks the difference between expansion and contraction in the economy.

Europe's markets are also down a lot this morning amid news that budget talks in the Netherlands fell apart.  This combined with potential shakeup in France's political makeup has investors worried about how the eurozone will hold it together to tackle their fiscal issues.  Additionally, PMI readings out of France and Germany were disappointing.

The flight-to-safety trade is on this morning, although it is not including gold.  The dollar is higher vs. the euro, and that is hurting commodities.  Gold prices are lower to $1630 and oil prices are down below $102.  Silver and copper prices are lower as well. 

The 10-year yield is plunging as investors pile into Treasuries.  The yield is down to 1.91%.  And the VIX is surging near 15% to the 20 level.

In earnings news, stocks are showing mixed reactions to earnings reports.

Stocks rising on earnings reports:
  • EAT, BEAV, STI
Stocks falling on earnings reports:
  • COP, CHL, K, CHKP
Trading comment: The action this morning lends itself to the notion that the market remains in a correction and needs more time.  The S&P 500 tried to recapture its 50-day last week but today is breaking back below it.  The SPX is also testing its earlier monthly low around 1357.  Additionally, the Nasdaq which has been the leading index has also broken decisively below its 50-day support.  And many growth leaders are also experiencing selloffs.  This type of action should not be surprising given the multi-month runup we saw for most of the last several months.  I think what we need to watch for is for bearish sentiment to pick up, as that will help the market bottom sooner.  It is never a good sign if investors simply remain complacent in the face of the falling market.  Be patient.

KAM Advisors has long positions in CHKP

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Saturday, April 21, 2012

10 Ways You Should Be Using Your Blog to Build Business (But Probably Aren’t)


Part 2 of 2: Did you miss part 1?
Read The Ultimate Secret for Blogging Success

Now that we’ve given voice to the ultimate secret for blogging success (actually populating your blog) and talked about some easy, painless ways to do so (even if you don’t consider yourself much of a writer) let’s go on to the remaining:

9 ways you should be using your blog to build business
(but probably aren’t).

1. Populate it.

2. Use your blog to educate readers about your business, products or services.

One way to do this is to have a spotlight product or service of the week (or month). Incentivize newly blog educated customers by providing an offer relative to your product or service of the month, such as a complimentary trial version, free add-on or another goodie.

On your working calendar (whether it’s electronic or old fashioned paper and pen) schedule out 15 minutes each week and write down the name of each product or service that you’ll write about. For each, you only need to write 2-3 paragraphs, and you will likely be able to cut and paste from manufacturer’s websites or flyers, or even take scripting from product packaging itself.

3. Brand it.

Your blog – along with your website, email newsletter, Facebook timeline page and all other online platforms – should be designed so that a customer knows they are interacting with your business (and with the same business) no matter which site they were on.

For example, I recently designed a website for my husband’s dental practice. Note how the Walker and Kraus DDS' Enumclaw dental practice website, blog and Facebook page – while not identical – still have enough harmony so that you can easily identify them as united.



4. Optimize it.

Now more than ever it’s important that you utilize your online communications effectively and strategically. I know it sounds complicated, but a little reading and research on your part about optimizing your blog posts to help drive traffic not only to itself but also to drive more traffic to your business’ website will pay off.
Your blog also gives you opportunities to specifically enhance your local SEO (the optimization that you do to bring more local clients to your website and hopefully into your place of business).

(And if you don’t want to do it yourself, you don’t have to. Content writers like me would simply love to do it for you!)

5. Engage, provoke and otherwise invite feedback.

The point of communications channels like your blog are primarily to build brand awareness and foster relationships. You should write from the standpoint of wanting to create intrigue among readers – a desire in prospects to want to know more about your business (or do business with you), the development of customer loyalty and referrals among existing clients, and so on.

Use your blog to gauge feedback, solicit reviews and testimonials, find out how well your customer service, fulfillment, service department or other segments of your business are doing, etc.

6. Establish and build on your reputation as an expert.

No matter what business you are in, you want your customers to view you as the authority, the go-to-guy for whatever it is that you do or sell. By using your blog to educate customers and prospects, you set yourself up as a perceived authority.

In addition, by populating your blog strategically and improving your SEO result placement, you enhance your reputation. True or not, people perceive businesses to be more (or inherently) trustworthy when they place higher in Google search results.

7. Ensure cross-channel coordination.

Blog posts should be scheduled, in part, to be coordinated with your overall communications strategy. Not only should you use other channels to link to your blog post, but even topics themselves can receive focus across the entirety of your business in conjunction with the point in time that it’s being featured on your blog post.

An example of this would be creating a promotion around a product that will receive “product of the week” status. in addition to blog post and social media status updates, you could put a snippet on your on-hold system, place bag stuffers in box shipments or bags when customers check out, send a postcard to customers or prospects who have purchased that product in the past or who are more likely to buy in the future, include it as a featured product in your email or print newsletters, and even provide service providers or point of sale employees with a special script about that product.

8. Make emotional connections.

People expect blog posts to be written by real people. And when you get to write like a real person, you have more ability to make emotional connections. Use analogies about people, places, pets and other things in your life that your customers or prospects might relate to emotionally. Talk about local schools, charities, civic initiatives and other worthwhile endeavors which you support. Give people emotional reasons to see themselves as connected to your brand and your business.

9. Turn it into a resource.

When you populate your blog with posts that have value (i.e., value in the eyes of your readers, customers and prospects), you establish your blog as a resource. When you provide a valuable resource, you give people reasons to come back. Reasons to forward your blog posts on to friends and family. Reasons for them to check back to see what’s new, what’s special, what’s incentivized, etc.

In addition to talking about your business, you can also talk about your community and provide links to other businesses, city organizations, events, etc. Set your business blog up as a hub for people to come back to visit, time and time again.

10. Think series of posts, rather than one and done.

There’s no reason that you can’t write out the story of your business in a series of posts, especially if you can tell the story of your business in a compelling way and leave people wanting more. And writing in series sequences (instead of one and done) also enhances your SEO as search engines view pages with back links as having more value and authority.

***


Elizabeth Kraus is the author of 365 Days of Marketing.
365 Days of Marketing is the ultimate resource for business owners who need actual content in order to achieve their content marketing (blogging, social media and SEO) goals! 

Available on amazon.com in print or digital format, it contains marketing how-to, inspiration and content for every day of the year -- including all of the major holidays an much, much more to help you build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients, 365 days a year!
  
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Friday, April 20, 2012

Stocks Try To Close Out Week On A Positive Note

The markets are higher in early trading after another batch of better than expected earnings reports and some renewed buying interest in Europe. 

Earnings reports have continued to come in fast and furious.  As I scan the reactions to earnings announcements among stocks this morning, I'm seeing a lot more positive reactions than negative ones.  Although there were some disappointments as well.

Stocks rising on earnings results include:
  • MSFT, HON, GE, MCD, COF, UA, SLB, VMI, BGS
Stocks declining related to earnings:
  • DLR, EXPD, CMG, SNDK, TPX, RVBD
Asian markets were mixed overnight, while Europe's markets are higher this morning.  A positive reading for Germany's business climate helped boost sentiment abroad.

The dollar is lower vs. the euro today, and that is helping commodities.  Oil prices are higher above $104, and gold prices are higher to $1645.  Copper prices are up today also.

The 10-year yield is getting a small bounce, rising to 1.99%.  But the VIX is seeing a big plunge today, down -7% to 17.0 which is just below the 50-day average.  Today is options expiration which could be exacerbating some of the trading in the options market today.

Trading comment:  The S&P 500 is currently in position to finish the week on a positive note.  But trading has been choppy, and the days when the market has been higher have not been accompanied by the usual rise in volume that the bulls look for.  In this situation, we like to focus those names that have beaten earnings and seen big pops in their stock.  Those are usually the stocks where demand will remain strong and investors can use upcoming dips and pullback in said names to add to their positions.  We don't want to bottom fish in the laggards in hopes that they play catch up.

KAM Advisors has long positions in HON, MCD, BGS, DLR, EXPD

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Thursday, April 19, 2012

Positive Reactions To Earnings Rolling In

The market was lower in early trading after some economic data came out that was less robust than expected.  But the positive reaction to earnings reports seems to be pulling things higher, and the markets quickly got back into positive territory.

In economic news, the Philly Fed Survey for April fell to 8.5 from 12.5 in the prior month.  Also, existing home sales fell to an annualized pace of 4.48 million units during March, but that is down from a pace of 4.60 million units last month.  Initial jobless claims for the week were also a little higher than expected.

In earnings news, we are getting into the thick of earnings seasons with lots and lots of companies reporting results. 

Stocks showing positive reactions to earnings:
  • EBAY, FFIV, AXP, TRV, VZ, MS, KMP, and UNH
Stocks showing negative reactions to earnings:
  • QCOM, EMC, NVE, TZOO
Overnight action in Asia was mixed, while Europe is mostly higher this morning.  The demand for the bond auctions in Spain was stronger than feared and the auctions were well bid. 

The weaker economic data is helping push yields lower, with the 10-year yield down to 1.96%.  And the VIX is lower by more than 3% so far, pushing it down to the 18 level and very near its 50-day average.

Trading comment: Earnings reports have been strong for the most part, and that will keep folks bullish about stocks.  The fears about deterioration in Europe are still present, although the solid bond auctions in Spain and France have pushed those concerns to the back burner for the moment.  But CDS prices in Germany continue to rise, so stresses remain.  I expect individual stock leaders to hold up well on a relative basis, but I do not think investors will escape the late spring and summer months without a pickup in volatility.

KAM Advisors has long positions in KMP, EMC, QCOM, UNH, and VZ

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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

How Long Can U.S. Markets Igonre Spain?

The markets are slightly lower in early trading after a surprisingly strong rally yesterday. I was surprised by the strength of the rally yesterday, given that bond yields are rising in Spain, CDS prices have been rising across the eurozone, and comments from the IMF have highlighted the deteriorating situation in peripheral Europe. I wonder how long our markets can ignore this news?

But don't let me rain on anyone's parade. Asian markets were up across the board overnight, following the strong rally here yesterday. But Europe is lower again this morning, with Spain down another -3%.

In earnings news, there were a handful of companies reporting better than expected earnings. Stocks moving higher after reporting include: PNC, SYK, STX, HAL, and ISRG. IBM, INTC, and BLK also topped estimates but their stocks are lower today. I have not seen any notable stocks that are down a lot on earnings.

On the M&A front, SXCI said it will buy CHSI and its stock is up 8% on the news. Consolidation continues in the PBM industry.

The dollar is higher this morning vs. the euro, which is weighing on commodities. Gold prices are lower near $1644. Silver and copper prices are lower also. And oil prices have pulled back to $103.

The 10-year yield continues to struggle with that 2.00% level, currently at 1.98%. And the VIX is up 2% this morning after bouncing off its 50-day support yesterday (18.95).

Trading comment: Yesterday's action took the S&P 500 back above its 50-day average. I think a couple of closes above that level puts the bulls back in charge of the tape. I would also like to see a follow-through rally with some volume accompanying it to show me there is some conviction. If the SPX fades back below the 50-day, then we will be back in correction mode. The news out of Europe remains troubling, and I am trying to be mindful for the potential of another flare up like we had last summer with Greece. But the market continues to climb the proverbial wall of worry.

KAM Advisors has long positions in HAL, IBM, and SXCI

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One-on-One with Governor Mitt Romney

In my latest interview with former Governor Mitt Romney, he emphatically defends his own business success against Obama’s class warfare/Buffett Rule/Romney Rule attacks. Don’t look for Mitt to back off from his free enterprise vision.

He also told me he will go after HUD and DOE for budget cuts and consolidation, along with a slew of other agency cuts. He will also roll back tax deductions for upper-earners while he lowers marginal rates by 20 percent across-the-board. He does not want more stimulus from the Fed. Thinks blaming speculators for high energy prices is completely wrong.

He would roll up his sleeves to deal with taxmageddon immediately during his transition if elected. And wants his Veep to be able to lead the country as president if that were necessary. He believes women can meet that requirement as well as men. Take a listen:

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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The Ultimate Secret for Business Blogging Success

Part 1 of 2:
10 Ways You Should Be Using Your Blog to Build Business (But Probably Aren’t)

While modern blogs have evolved into a fairly consistent form, digital communities and digital diaries have existed pretty much since the internet came into existence. That puts the age of this medium at something like 20 or 22 years – which, I believe qualifies it as a grown up part of online marketing and marketing in general.

Even so, its’ still not uncommon for me to sit down to talk marketing strategy with a business owner only to discover that they really don’t know what a blog is. And it’s even more common to sit down with a small business owner to find that while they have a blog, they aren’t posting on it (1) at a regular frequency or with (2) any kind of strategy. Ditto when it comes to social media.

Once the bright shiny new toy-ness wears off your blog or social media marketing, without a plan, it’s likely to fall into disuse and become just one more piece of cyberspace litter. In fact, when this happens, it can actually harm your business to have an inactive blog “out there.”

Why?

Well, assume that your blog, although inactive (you can almost see the virtual cobwebs growing on the thing) actually does what it was intended to do: draw traffic to itself. Imagine that a reader lands on your blog only to discover that you stopped posting nine or ten months ago.

Your reader is left to wonder whether you’re still in business at all. Your reader is left with the impression that you don’t have your act together (if you did, your blog wouldn’t lie dormant, and if it was dormant, it wouldn’t be visible).

Or what if your address and phone number have changed, but your obsolete blog remains online, driving real traffic to real or virtual locations that no longer exist? Your contact information changes but your blog is there sending your inquiries out to non-existent phone numbers and email addresses?

What’s more, over time the brand of your business will change and evolve. If you leave obsolete, inactive visible brand identifiers online, and readers interact with your blog and then come to visit your website or business, the inconsistencies between the two are going to undermine your overall branding efforts.

So let’s say you do have a business blog (or a blog you’re resolved to revitalize) – now what? 


What are you going to do with your business blog to make sure that it doesn’t fall into disuse, or worse, become a business liability? To answer that question, I came up with a list of 10 ways that most business owners aren’t using their business blogs, but should be.

First, here is the ultimate secret for business blogging success; the number one way that you should be using your blog to build business (but maybe aren’t):

The ultimate secret for business blogging success:
Populate it.

Number one, without question. It’s critical that your blog be populated with quality content on a continual basis. There is no way around it if you want to get found online, and there’s no way around that, because your prospects and customers are looking for you online.

If you’re stuck for content (that was how your blog went dormant to begin with, I’ll betcha) don’t feel alone. Not everyone loves to write, even when it comes to areas of passion, like their business, solutions, employees and customers.

Beyond telling you to “just do it” (which eventually you may have to) there are some other ways to make populating your blog consistently and with quality, relevant, engaging content easier:

  • Use your website’s FAQ (frequently asked questions) as topics for multiple blog posts. You probably have enough to provide you with content for many, many blog posts, and they will also help you educate your customers about your services or products. Plus,they should enhance your SEO since they are likely to incorporate key-words and phrases that contribute to boosting your business in search results. 
  • Use a book like 365 Days of Marketing which has themed content for (literally) every day of the year. Share interesting facts and lists such as those found on sites like Wikipedia or MentalFloss.com. (Be sure to correctly credit original sites when sharing information from other sources!) 
  • Utilize corporate marketing and educational collateral such as your website, marketing brochures, materials provided by vendors or manufacturers, and even information found on the labels of your products themselves to build content on topics that would most interest your readers: namely, how your products or services would benefit them. 
  • (Solicit and) use customer testimonials and survey findings about your products and services as blog post conversation starters. 
  • See what other businesses like yours are blogging about and what their readers are responding to; these might be direct and indirect competitors or equivalent organizations in other communities.
  • Ask your customers for input about what kinds of topics would be of interest to them. 
  • Keep it simple. Your blog posts don’t need to be longer than a few paragraphs. In fact, readers will remember more if you say less. 
  • If you really hate writing blog posts and maintaining your business blog, get help. Pay a content marketing expert to populate your blog and post on your behalf on a regular basis or identify someone within your business who wants to do it. Or share the responsibility out between several individuals so that no one person is burdened with a task that doesn’t come naturally to them.

Next Up: 9 more ways you should be using your business blog to actually build business (but probably aren’t)

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Can Bulls Keep Their Foot On The Gas?

The market is rallying in early trading as the bulls try to keep this correction short in nature. Market leader AAPL has plunged over the last few days but today it is reversing higher and is currently up 3% on the session trying to recapture the $600 level.

In earnings news, there were some positive reports from bellwethers such as Coke (KO), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JNJ. All of those companies beat earnings estimates and their stocks are higher so far.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, led by China (-1.0%) after it announced that foreign direct investment fell 2.8% yr/yr. India was higher last night after the Reserve Bank of India cut its overnight rate in a surprise 50 bps cut to 8.00%.

Europe's markets are all higher this morning after strong demand for Spain's recent bond offering. This is no doubt helping sentiment in the U.S, where concerns over Spain have been rising. But Spain's auction of 3.2 billion euros of 12- and 18-month bills are within the maturities of the ECB's LTRO, so I don't think it's a true gauge of demand. I want to see if there is the same demand among investors when they auction new 10-year notes.

The dollar is a little lower vs. the euro, and commodities are mixed. Oil prices are higher near $104.70 while gold prices are slightly weaker to $1646.

The 10-year is getting a small boost back to the 2.00% level. And the VIX is plunging on this early rally, down -9% to 17.75 which is still above its 50-day average.

Trading comment: The S&P 500 closed back below its 50-day last night, and looked like that would lead to a deeper correction. But this market likes to keep investors on their toes and leaning the wrong way, so this morning it has shot back above that 50-day average. This is a battleground right now, and if the SPX can log a couple of closes above it (1377) I would have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. We added to our shorts and hedges in recent days, and those positions will have to be reconsidered if this strength continues. But something tells me it might not be that easy.

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Monday, April 16, 2012

Monday Morning Musings: The Streak Is Over

The market opened higher this morning, but quickly reversed such that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reversed into negative territory. But the Dow is still higher as industrials and financials outperform.

The Nasdaq was lower last week which ended its winning streak at 14 weeks. My tracking spreadsheet doesn't go back far enough to show another streak that has lasted that long, but maybe someone else can tell me the last time that occurred.

Apple (AAPL) and Priceline (PCLN) have both rolled over this morning, and Google (GOOG) has broken below its 50-day average. So the Nazz continues to correct and is lagging all of the other major indexes this morning.

Asian markets were lower across the board overnight. I would have expected Europe to be lower, but their markets are actually positive despite Spanish yields moving back above the 6.00% level.

In economic news, retail sales came in better than expected at 0.8% for March, well above the 0.3% estimate. But the Housing Market Index for April fell to 25 from 28 the prior month. It was the first drop in 7 months, but I have heard of weakness in other indexes as well.

In earnings, Citi (C) reported disappointing earnings results but its stock is still higher on the session. This is the opposite reaction we saw last week in JPM and WFC who beat estimates but their stocks fell. All of the above financials are higher today.

The euro is lower vs. the dollar today, which is weighing on commodities. Oil prices are slightly lower near $102, and gold has pulled back to $1650.

The 10-year yield is sinking further to 1.96%. And the VIX had bounced above the 20 level on the early reversal in stocks this morning, but is has since eased back a little to 19.53.

Trading comment: I don't like big up opens in the market that are quickly sold. That is not bullish action. Speaking of bullish action, last week's rally attempts came on lighter volume vs. the down days in the market, so we need to see that pattern reverse. Bulls will want to see the market rally on rising volume, not falling. We have also lost the AAPL/PCLN leadership combo in the Nasdaq. My guess is the S&P is going to take the lead for a bit, but big picture I think the market needs to spend some more time consolidating its multi-month runup over the last several months and that doesn't happen overnight. The wildcard is obviously Europe. If Spanish yields continue to rise and the market gets spooked, then we could see a deeper correction like we did last year.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, GOOG, JPM, PCLN, and WFC

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April 16.2012 | Style, Strategy and Marketing Savvy Newsletter

April 16.2012 | Style, Strategy and Marketing Savvy Newsletter

Feature Article:  Ten reasons you need an email newsletter [ go ]
Statistics prove that not only do people perceive companies that send them email more positively, they are also more likely to buy from them, whether they make purchases online or off.

Also in this issue: 
- Thirty things to tweet about your brand
- Eight traits of a good online marketing article
- Twenty tips to delivering awesome customer experiences
- Nine ways to destroy employee morale
- Six ways to empower employees to take initiative


Get all the article links online at www.12monthsofmarketing.net/5apr2012.html

 

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Friday, April 13, 2012

Keep A Close Eye On Spain

The market is lower this morning, despite positive action in Asia overnight and a host of better than expected earnings reports.

Asian markets were up across the board last night even though China posted a GDP number that was below expectations. Chinese GDP for Q1 is estimated to have grown 8.1%, which is below the 8.4% expected. Most likely the reason Asian markets didn't selloff is that investors expect lower GDP for China to give the govt. cover to ease monetary policy more.

The good mood in Asian overnight didn't carryover to Europe this morning, where markets are down. The big concern once again is Spain, where bong yields have been rising recently and stocks have been swooning. Recent data shows that net borrowing by Spanish banks from the ECB surged to 228 billion euros in March from 152 billion in February. If Spain spirals out of control like Greece I would expect global markets to come under pressure.

In economic news in the US, the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey declined to 75.7 in April from 76.2 the prior month. But April's decline was the first in the survey since August 2011.

The dollar is rallying vs. the euro today, and that is weighing on commodities. Oil prices have fallen back to $103 and gold prices are lower near $1668. Copper and silver prices are lower as well.

The 10-year yield is back below the 2.00% level at 1.99%. And the VIX is up 9% to 18.75. I suspect if the market continues to selloff we will see the VIX get back above the 20 level.

Trading comment: There is an old adage in the market that says its not the news that's important, its the reaction in the stock. So it is not a very good sign that all of the companies that beat estimates last night (JPM, WFC, and GOOG) are all lower this morning. I don't want to make too much out of a single day's action, but if this turns into a trend it won't be good. On Tuesday I said that the market was grossly oversold and due for a bounce. We got that expected bounce the last 2 days, but on relatively light volume. Currently the S&P 500 is testing that 50-day average support again near the 1376 level. If we can't hold that support, it is likely that the market will correct more.

KAM Advisors has long positions in GOOG, JPM, and WFC

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GE's Jack Welch Blasts Obama's Leadership

President Obama’s “divide-and-conquer” approach isn’t what great leaders do, Jack Welch said Thursday on “The Kudlow Report”.

The renowned former General Electric CEO chided the president for blaming others for economic woes.

“It was the insurance executives in health care. It was the bankers in the collapse. It was the oil companies as oil prices go up. It was Congress if things didn’t go the way he wanted. And recently it’s been the Supreme Court,” he said.

“He’s got an enemies list that would make Richard Nixon proud.”

Welch, who helmed GE for 21 years and founded the Jack Welch Management Institute at Strayer University, penned an op-ed article for Reuters with wife Suzy Welch this week in which he tackled the idea of Obama’s enemies list.

“Surely his supporters must think this particular tactic is effective, but there can be no denying that the country is more polarized than when Obama took office,” Welch wrote, making a case for presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

“Without doubt, Romney is not the model leader (his apparent lack of authenticity can be jarring), but he has a quality that would serve him well as president — good old American pragmatism,” he wrote. “Perhaps that’s the businessman in him. Or perhaps you just learn to do what you’ve got to do when you’re a GOP governor in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts or the man charged with salvaging the scandal-ridden Salt Lake City Olympics. If Romney’s long record suggests anything, it’s that he knows how to manage people and organizations to get things accomplished without a lot of internecine warfare.”

In 1981, Welch became GE’s youngest CEO, and increased its market value by $387 billion, making it the world’s most valuable company. But the move came in part by slashing GE’s workforce by more than 100,000 workers, earning him the nickname he despised, “Neutron Jack,” a reference to the bomb designed to eliminate people while leaving buildings intact.

Welch argued that “great leaders are interested in coalescing” the way they would run a company.

“You don’t have one division pinned against the other,” he said. “You try to get the whole company pull together.”

I asked him whether he thought Romney could win the White House. “Absolutely,” he said. “It’d be great for the country. We’d be a stronger country. We’d have more jobs. We’d have more people getting a piece of the pie. And we wouldn’t have this divisive nature that we have with this president, screaming at one group and then screaming at the next group in a high-pitched voice.

“He was in Florida this week screaming and yelling about rich people. He went after the Supreme Court. We’ve got to stop this, Larry.”

Earlier in the interview, Welch said he was seeing modest growth in short-cycle sectors such as food and chemicals, along with “real strength” in non-residential construction and infrastructure.

“While the economy was strong, it wasn’t accelerating the way I thought it would after the fourth quarter,” he said.

Tailwinds included consumer confidence and the Federal Reserve.

“On the negative side, though, we’ve got gasoline prices, we’ve got Europe, we don’t know where China is going and we’ve got tax increases right around the corner,” he said.

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Thursday, April 12, 2012

10 Reasons You Need an Email Newsletter

Email Newsletters produce high marketing ROI

Last week someone sent me an invitation to connect on LinkedIn. I “okayed” the request, and the next day, I had an email from this same person in my inbox, asking me to share all of my business needs with him. No relationship building, no trust, no foundation or even context for the conversation. It was the equivalent of being proposed to on a blind first date.

And since I was just about as creeped out as if it had been a proposal on a blind date, I responded appropriately. Deleted the email, told outlook to block future emails from this individual and un-connected on LinkedIn. The equivalent of changing my phone number and eliminating my blind date proposer from my social media networks.

It’s not the first time, and it won’t be the last; my question is, how many times have you moved from introduction to proposal too quickly? How many times have you lost customers by being presumptuous – failing to understand what they really needed or where they were in the buying process? Or how many customers have you lost because you didn’t know they were ready to buy, and so never even extended an offer?

Building relationships with prospects is vital if you want to move them from prospect to customer. And moving customers to the next step in the relationship is vital if you want to garner referrals and gain enduring customer loyalty.

Developing communication strategies for each stage of the customer life cycle can greatly aid your ability to keep the relationship growing and keep your business on the prospect’s mind so that when they are ready to buy, ready to move, ready to try a new product or service—when they are ready to do business with you—yours will be the business to which they turn. And communications collateral can be the means by which your customers will refer friends and family to your business by passing on an email newsletter, coupon, menu or brochure.

While some business owners express doubt as to the return on their email marketing investment, and others worry about being perceived as spammers, email marketing is alive and well. And, done correctly, email marketing can have huge benefits to the bottom line. For instance, did you know:

  • Email marketing produces one of the highest returns on investment compared to any other form of direct marketing. The DMA says that email marketing ROI was $40.56 for every $1 invested in 2011; compare that to the return on banner ads at just $2 for every dollar invested and keyword ads which produce a $17 return for every dollar invested.
  • According to the email stat center, Epsilon studies found that 57% of respondents have more positive impressions of the companies that send them email, 40% say that simply receiving a company’s email positively impacts the likelihood that they will make a future purchase from that company, and 50% say they are more likely to buy products from companies that send them email, whether they make those purchases online or at a brick and mortar place of business.
  • And email marketing is permission based. This should ease business owner’s fear of being perceived as a junk emailer. If your customer or prospect asks you to communicate with them via email, why should you be afraid to do so? All of the power rests with them: they can choose to delete your email or save it for later if they don’t want to read it right away, and they can unsubscribe at any time if your email newsletter isn’t something that adds value for them any longer.

Sending a regular email newsletter is a great way to initiate and develop your relationships with prospects and customers. Here are 10 things that an email newsletter can do for your business:

1. Email can significantly impact your overall branding strategy. 
Your brand is the sum total of an individual’s perceptions about your business (and you!). And email communication is one of the few customer touch points where you control most of the interaction in terms of what the customer or prospect sees, and where they are directed next with each and every email communication. And you can use your email communications to drive traffic to your website or webstore, your blog or even to outside sites which can further help to influence and educate your audience to do business with you.


2. Email can enhance your customer education strategy. 
Part of getting the prospect or customer to “choose you” when they are ready to purchase what you have to offer is educating them as to the benefits they will receive as a result of doing business with you. Email communications provide the forum for sharing these types of benefits as well as your mission, vision, customer bill of rights—all of the promises you make to customers about what they can expect to be true, each and every time they do business with you.


3. You can use email to create intrigue. 
In 365 Days of Marketing, I make the point that intrigue is vital to turning prospects into customers and moving customers deeper into relationship with you. In order to gain mindshare among prospects, you must keep them interested in your business, even if they aren’t yet ready to buy. To return to the blind date analogy, it’s the equivalent of creating a desire on the part of the other person to want to know more about you—to be intrigued about what they don’t yet know or fully understand about your business, products or services, but want to find out.


It’s important to point out that creating intrigue on a first date isn’t done by proposing marriage; it’s done by omitting information – and giving your date a reason and the motivation to go out with you again and develop a relationship over time. It is during this relationship over time that intrigue leads eventually to relationship decisions, like buying, referring others and becoming a loyal customer.


4. Email can be used to gain referrals. 
When you provide useful information to prospects and customers in email newsletters and updates, you provide both the reason and the means by which they can refer friends and family to your business. For instance, something in your email newsletter might remind them that an acquaintance needs your products or services. And having an email in their inbox makes it incredibly easy for them to forward the email itself or a link to your online newsletter on to interested parties.


5. Email can help you build relationships. 
Though referenced throughout this article, remember that email is not a one and done marketing push, it’s about building relationships over time. Your email newsletter should have a combination of content that creates intrigue but also educates, communicates your values and customer promises and helps to build your brand, in addition to actually extending marketing offers to your readers.


6. Email can help you establish influence and expertise.  
One of the reasons that people choose to buy from you or feel comfortable referring a family member or friend to your business is because they trust you. They trust that you will treat them (or their referral) to a positive customer experience and they trust that you will provide them with the right solution. Trust is built over time and repeated interactions; and email can comprise those interactions. Use your email newsletter to communicate news, information and expertise to enhance your reputation and the reputation of your business and set yourself up as the expert in your field in the minds of customers and prospects.


7. Email can be used to extend offers.  
The top reason that consumers subscribe to mailings and interact with businesses on social media is to receive special offers and discounts. Your subscribers expect you to email them and they expect (and want!) to receive valuable offers from you. Use your email newsletter to tell customers and prospects about current offers, or create special offers that are redeemable only by your email readers. In addition, you can use your email newsletter to tell people about what is new in your business and remind them about offers that will be expiring in the near future.


8. Email can help you move customer to the next level in the customer life cycle. 
You can invite customers to events, ask them to refer others to your business, extend membership, VIP or other club type of offers and make any number of other calls to action meant to encourage your prospect or customer to move to a deeper level of relationship with your business. If you have openings for new clients, you can use your email newsletter as the means of telling your readers exactly “who” your business would be a perfect match for. You can provide education about your business, products or services that engage your readers not only intellectually but also emotionally and give them even more reasons to want to do business with you. You can tell them know about your commitment to the local community, local schools or local charitable causes. You can talk about the history of your company, your employees, your passions and a variety of other personal topics that will help them to connect themselves emotionally and to feel proud about identifying themselves with the brand of your business.


9. You can use email to gauge interest. 
Before launching a new product or service or making changes to customer processes, you can use email to gauge interest ahead of time. This can help you to fine tune new offerings before they launch or even avoid costly mistakes, like investing in a product for which demand is not strong or making a change to the customer process that might make your customers upset or even leave.


10. You can use email to gather feedback and customer data. 
While you may view email as a push marketing our outbound marketing tactic, it can be much more. It’s easy for people to respond to email—it takes very little time and no cost to do so. If you aren’t yet, you should be using your email newsletter not only to share information but to ask for information. Provide the means for people to respond directly via return email or links to surveys and questionnaires which can help you gauge everything from your customer’s level of satisfaction to what they like best (or dislike most) about your business, what they want that you don’t provide, what you do better than the competition (or vice versa). You can also ask readers for product or service reviews or testimonials or even for feedback that can be used to help improve the level of customer service you provide (or where you are falling short of customer’s expectations).


Email communications have a relatively low cost, especially when compared to other forms of outbound marketing. And they have been shown to produce a significantly higher return. And now you have 10 great ways to use email communications that you might not have thought about before—so what’s stopping you?

You can easily get started with an email service such as Constant Contact, and you don’t have to be a programmer or HTML expert to do so, since they provide you with easy-to-modify templates. If you sign up using the link above, you'll get to try it out for free and receive a $30 credit.  Alternatively, if you do want professional help, feel free to contact me for information about starter email marketing or overall content marketing packages and strategies.

Build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients—it’s going to be a great year!


***

Elizabeth Kraus is the author of 365 Days of Marketing.
365 Days of Marketing is the ultimate resource for business owners who need actual content in order to achieve their content marketing (blogging, social media and SEO) goals! 

Available on amazon.com in print or digital format, it contains marketing how-to, inspiration and content for every day of the year -- including all of the major holidays an much, much more to help you build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients, 365 days a year!
 

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Early Look: Waiting On Google

The market is pushing higher in early trading, adding to its oversold bounce that started yesterday. The S&P 500 is back above its 50-day average, which comes back into play around 1374. Bulls will be looking for the index to hold above that level.

In earnings news, tech giant Google (GOOG) reports earnings after the close tonight. Consensus estimates are for EPS of $9.64 on revenues of $10.58 billion. Last quarter, GOOG missed estimates with its earnings report and the stock gapped lower the next day. Let's hope they have a better handle on their financials this time. The stock is trading at roughly 15x 2012 estimated earnings, so it's not very expensive at current levels.

In economic news, core PPI data showed a 0.3% increase month over month, slightly above expectations. Also, jobless claims came in higher than expected at 380,000. But continuing claims declined.

Overnight Asian markets were higher, led by a 1.8% bounce in China. Europe's markets are mostly lower this morning.

The euro is higher vs. the dollar, which is helping commodities. Oil prices are rallying to $103.80, and gold prices are up to $1676. Copper and silver prices are getting a pop as well.

The 10-year yield is up a touch to 2.03%; and the VIX is down -8% currently to 18.41. Yesterday's early dip in the VIX reversed itself by the close and the VIX rallied back up to 20. We'll see if it can stay down on day 2.

Trading comment: Yesterday's bounce came on somewhat lighter volume, but it was still a good rally attempt. Bulls will be watching for some follow through to come on higher volume, and also for one of the minor growth indexes (like the S&P midcap 400) to recapture its 50-day average. Most leading growth stocks haven't had too much damage on the charts and are consolidating. LNKD is close to breaking out again, and could benefit from the social media hype that is picking up as Facebook readies for their IPO next month.

KAM Advisors has long positions in GOOG and LNKD

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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Trying To End The Losing Streak

The S&P 500 is coming off its longest losing streak since last November at 5 days. The market is bouncing in early trading, with the SPX trying to regain its now overhead 50-day average.

Overnight trading was weak in Asia following weak action in US markets and lingering concerns about sovereign European debt. But the action in Europe took a decidedly positive tone this morning after a successful auction of short-term bills in Italy. This helped drive yields lower across the periphery of Europe.

In corporate news, Alcoa kicked off earnings season last night with a strong report. AA topped consensus estimates handily and also raised its growth forecast for the global aerospace market.

On the flipside, Nokia lowered Q1 guidance and its stock is getting hit.

The euro is higher this morning, but commodities are mixed. Oil prices are higher near $101.70 while gold prices are slightly weaker at $1660. Copper and silver are also mixed.

The 10-year yield is seeing a little bounce to 2.03%. And the VIX is falling -7.5% this morning below the 19 level as some of yesterday's fear comes out of the market.

Trading comment: A couple of different pictures for the SPX and Nasdaq in terms of their 50-day averages. The SPX broke through its 50-day support yesterday and today is trying to recapture that key support level (watch 1373). As for the COMP, it closed right at its 50-day support yesterday and today is bouncing higher from those levels (watch 2992). Looking at many of the other growth stocks that have been leading the market, most of them are still holding up. A handful have broken below their recent uptrend lines but are still trading above their 50-day averages. That said, yesterday was another distribution day (read: high volume selloff) in the market and adds to the number of distribution days we have seen in recent weeks. As such, traders should be in defensive mode and looking to protect profits and raise cash.

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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Readying For A Bounce

The market is lower in early trading, which would mark a rare 5th consecutive down day for the major indexes if we closed at current levels. The S&P 500 is approaching its 50-day average near 1372, having hit 1375 earlier. Interestingly, the Dow, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 are all already below their respective 50-day averages.

The Nazz is outperforming again, being helped by Apple (AAPL) which continues to defy gravity and trade higher to new record highs. Priceline (PCLN) is similarly spectacular but doesn't receive a fraction of the mentions in the media that AAPL does.

There hasn't been much in the way of market moving news this morning. Earnings season kicks off tonight with Alcoa, which is a bit of a bore if you ask me. Later this week we hear from Google, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo which should all be interesting.

Action in Asia overnight was mixed, with only China gaining on the session after reporting an unexpected trades surplus (imports were weaker than expected). Europe is lower this morning as Italian and Spanish bond yields continue to rise.

The dollar is stronger vs. the euro, and most commodities are pulling back. Oil prices are lower below $102. Gold prices are down near $1638. Silver and copper prices are lower too.

The 10-year yield has once again fallen back below the 2.00% level as investors question the strength of our economic rebound. The VIX is up another 3% to 19.35.

Trading comment: The SPX is getting closer to its 50-day average and I am still expecting a bounce from these levels. Often times a pullback ahead of earnings season sets the market up well to rally if those earnings reports come in at or above expectations. I hope we get a good report from Google on Thursday, as that would help sentiment. The put/call ratio is fairly low this morning at 0.81. I would prefer to see more fear and a reading above 1.0 to help the market bottom. But yesterday we did see a reading above 1.0 by the close, the first such reading in a week.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, JPM, and WFC

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Monday, April 9, 2012

B2B Marketing Going Mobile

IDC calls Mobility one of the Four Forces transforming the information technology industry. How big a force is mobility in tech marketing? Marketers at the forefront say that incorporating mobile channels into the mix is not an "if", but a "when".

Rampant Mobility Adoption
IDC projects that smart phone shipments will be $659.8M in 2012 up 33.5% from 2011 and expects shipments of media tablets to be $87.7 million, an increase of 38.6%. At the recent B2B's Digital Edge Live conference, Mark Wilson, SVP of Corporate and Field Marketing at Sybase, an SAP company, got lots of tweets when he claimed that there are more mobile phones in the world than toothbrushes (5.5B vs. 2B)! Businesses are rapidly putting smart phones and tablets into employees' hands in order to increase productivity and responsiveness.

Why Mobility Matters to Marketing: Better Buying Experiences Win
Mobile devices also enable better customer engagement and loyalty - this is the reason why mobility should matter to B2B marketers. Many companies continue to imagine that people make buying choices based solely on the value of the product or service offered. However, the buying experience itself is playing a bigger role in choice.

The internet has changed the buyer's selection behavior. Google has accustomed us to simply stating our needs and then enjoying the luxury of thousands of options. With such an abundance of choice, buyers can flit from option to option, deserting those that disappoint and engaging where they find an easy, clear, interesting, and possibly entertaining, match to their need.
To increase the chances of making a match and thus gaining engagement, B2B marketers already employ various types of buyer context including personalization, role, and vertical industry to the digital dialog. Mobility provides marketers with added potential.


  • Convenience - Mobile buyers can engage anywhere and anytime. Time flexibility increases the buyer's control over the interaction and can make it more satisfying. Users can use otherwise wasted time, so they may engage more deeply. Some companies report average interaction time going from seconds to minutes.

  • Relevancy - Vendors can better match a buyer's need by incorporating location-based context. Location-based context takes many forms. Offers can be linked to a nearby kiosk at an event, for example. Customer service representatives or sales people who are physically with a buyer can integrate mobilized digital content with the interpersonal dialog at the moment of need. Additional interaction time also increases the buyer's data footprint so that more preferences can be implied.

Going Mobile
Another panelist at the B2B Digital Edge Live conference, Jeff Klainberg, Director of Mobile Strategy, at American Express OPEN, recommended these three steps to mobilize your marketing:


  1. Establish mobile channels at parity with other digital channels. (Bring things you now do on the web to your mobile channel)

  2. Leverage open assets (such as free apps and free content) to create differentiated engagement and value delivery

  3. Breakthrough: once you get some experience, start creating differentiating new experiences that you can only do on mobile devices

Ideas for Successful Mobile Marketing
Sybase's Wilson provided his company's experience in successful mobile marketing applications:


  • eBooks: Books published for tablets and published on iTunes has led to 20x demand over print for Sybase content

  • Display ads: "Tap-rates" from mobile display ads get a substantially higher response over PC web click-rates

  • Mobisite: Some microsites optimized for mobility have achieved more than an average of five minutes per session

  • Events: Mobility enriches the event experience with the ability to buy goods on the event floor, to participate in contests, and recieve alerts

  • Demos: Sales enablement is one of the BEST uses of mobility. The ability to augment a sales conversation with immediate use of experts (via video), demo's, or other digital enhancement can transform the sales job
Today, mobility is smart phones and tablets. Expand your vision of what a "device" can be. Check out the world's most watched corporate video (created by agency Doremus) for Corning called A Day Made of Glass.

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Monday Morning Musings

The market is selling off on a delayed reaction to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Our markets were closed on Friday so this is the first chance traders have had to react to the news. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 120,000 in March, which was well below expectations for 200k jobs added. The unemployment rate was steady at 8.2%.

Overnight selling in Asia was also affected by concerns about slowing US economic growth. Japan and China were both lower, with China's CPI coming in above expectations at 3.6%. European markets are closed for the Easter holiday.

Bonds are rallying hard on the payrolls data, with prices up and yields plunging. We had begun to see the 10-year yield moving higher from that 2.00% level where it had been stuck for so long. But today we are back down to that key support area with the 10-yr trading near 2.03%.

Not much in the way of corporate news, but AOL (who still owns that stock?) did sell $1 billion worth of patents to Microsoft (MSFT).

Commodities are mixed, despite the dollar being lower. Oil prices are down near $104.40. Gold prices are higher to $1645, but silver and copper prices are down.

The VIX is seeing a big bounce, up 11% so far today back above its 50-day average to 18.60. Looks like we were stopped out of our VXX hedge a little early.

Trading comment
: The S&P 500 is down for a fourth straight day, which is about the most consecutive down days we have seen in the index since last November. Currently at 1379, that's about a 3% decline from the recent highs. I have been expecting a mild pullback in the 3-5% range, so we are now in that zone. The 50-day average for the SPX comes into play around 1371 while a full 5% pullback takes the index down to 1350. Of course, we could easily see something more but I think in that area buyers will step in and we will get a bounce. The key to determining if we will get a bigger correction this spring/summer is the tone of the ensuing bounce and if it is able to take the indexes back to new highs or if it runs out of steam and leaves a double-top looking formation. But in the near-term, I would be looking for a bounce in the markets.

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

6 Ways to Supersize your Networking ROI

A few days ago I jotted down notes for an article on how to get more value from your networking efforts and as I sat down to write this article for the 365 Days of Marketing blog, I remembered writing in 365 Days of Marketing about the fact that a lot of people misunderstand what networking is and isn’t, and so may never realize any return on their networking efforts.

If this has been your experience, you may have written off networking as a waste of time in terms of a bona fide marketing tactic. I’m hoping to give you a reason to give it a fresh look, and I’m hoping to give you some useful ways to adjust your approach to networking so that it brings some actual benefits to your business.

As it turns out, the 2nd week of April is actually National Networking Week -- so no wonder it was on my mind!  

In 365 Days of Marketing, I define networking this way:
net-work-ing, noun
meaning: the exchange of information or services among individuals, groups, or institutions
specifically: the cultivation of productive relationships for employment or business
Networking is more than attending meetings with other business owners or showing up at events where prospects might be in attendance.

Real networking is purposeful.

It either involves working together with peers to help improve the business climate in your community or it involves being present, visible and alluring in the same places as are your target market/s prospects or ideal types of clients.

Maybe that’s why so many business professionals give up on networking or put it on the bottom of their priority list; they’ve been doing it wrong! Now that you have a better understanding of what networking is (and isn’t), how are you going to put this tactic to work to help build business?

Here are 6 ways that you can reap a bigger return on your networking efforts:

1. Know what you want to get out of it and be prepared.

When you attend networking meetings and conferences, be prepared with an audience-targeted, short introduction – no more than 30 seconds, and no more than one main point beyond your name, company name and title. For more on networking introductions read this post on the topic called “I’m Sorry, I’ve Already Forgotten Your Name."

In addition to your 30 second power introduction, consider offering something for give away (I frequently bring a copy of one of my books for give away at networking events by way of instant business card drawing). And create a one-sheet which is targeted to that audience and which highlights some important aspect of your business. I like to include a sample blog post along with a short list of “Related Services” that my business provides.

And make sure every one-sheet or take away includes a call to action and the means for the recipient to take the next step in the relationship they have (or want to build) with you and your business. Such calls to action might include an invitation to subscribe to your blog or email newsletter, to visit your business or book an appointment, to shop your store or website, to connect with you on social media, etc.

2. Use your social media platforms to make generous mention of businesses in your networking groups.

All too often we focus all of our marketing communications – social media profiles included – on marketing our own businesses. You can improve your SEO and generate plenty of goodwill among your peers if you will use your social media platforms for what they were intended; social interaction.

Over the last month, I’ve made it a point to mention every independent business that I’ve interacted with on social media as quickly as possible. It costs me very little by way of time and brings a wonderful return in the relationships that I’m building with other business owners. And hopefully it encourages my peers to do the same on social media in mentioning my services and those of the other businesses in our networking groups (and isn’t that one of the purposes of networking groups, anyway?)

3. Encourage reciprocal links.

Most blogs include a list of recommend other blogs or other websites that the blog’s author would recommend to their readers. Just as you can mention other local businesses on social media, you can also set up links to their businesses on your blog or website as local resources which you would feel comfortable recommending as resources for your customers. And there’s no reason not to point this out to the businesses with which you choose to network and to create reciprocal links in order to boost everyone’s SEO as well as provide a helpful list of local resources for your customers.

4. Write reviews for your networked peers.

Again, you might be asking yourself, why should you spend valuable time talking up other people’s businesses? The first reason should be that you genuinely want to be an information hub to your own customers in providing valuable resources to your customers. It improves your own reputation when you make good recommendations to others, and it makes you look good to both your peer business owners and your customers when you spend time saying good things about other people, and other businesses!

Secondly, reviews, blog comments and other similar online forums can also help you improve your own SEO and visibility to prospective customers. You can leave reviews on sites such as citysearch.com, yelp.com and others. You can also leave your own “shout outs” and complimentary reviews of local businesses on their blog sites, and on their social media pages (as well as your own). You may even choose to feature raves for local businesses in anecdotal stories as posts on your own blog.

However and wherever you decide to leave reviews for other businesses, I would recommend that you adhere to what “mom” always advised. When reviewing other businesses in your community, “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all.”

5. Create an online directory.

One of the ways to build influence and become a catalyst for improving the local business economy is to turn your blog and websites into hubs. And not only hubs of information, but your website (and blog roll) is a great place to create a hub of local business listings. Include a directory of local resources on your website which features listings of the businesses within your peer networking groups.

6. Actually visit – and patronize – the businesses represented in your networking groups.

I recently attended a local networking group at the invitation of a friend who said that she was a little fed up with the networking group. When I asked why, she replied that in the year they’d been having the meetings, not one of them had even visited her business.

While participation in networking groups should bring referrals from other members, it might be that a lot of networking groups are missing the person that should be the most obvious referral: you.


If you participate in business networking groups, and especially if you are going to refer your own customers to these other businesses, take the time to visit these other businesses and patronize them when you have opportunity. After all, this is something you want from other group members, right? Time to put your time and money where your desires are!

If you think about it, local business networking groups operate as loosely affiliated cross and cooperative marketing partners in many respects. Wouldn't it behoove your networking group to approach this strategically and make this one of the biggest benefits to local business owners for participation?  Feel free to pass on my tips to your group or even use them as the basis for a more purposeful, concerted effort in order to boost the local economy for all participating businesses!

Like any other part of your overall marketing, networking should be done as strategically and efficiently as possible. You are much more likely to reap a return when you understand what networking is (and isn’t) and you have a plan for getting the most ROI on the investment of time and money you make.

***


Elizabeth Kraus is the author of 365 Days of Marketing.
365 Days of Marketing is available on amazon.com in print or digital format. It contains marketing how-to, inspiration and content for every day of the year -- including Mother's Day and Father's Day to help you build a bigger role for your business in the lives of your clients, 365 days a year!
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